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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 8.04 Fair value 11.06 One-star price 15.20
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (8.04) to the one-star price (15.20).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 10.40 |
| Price - 12 month high | 16.78 |
| Price - 12 month low | 5.07 |
| Pricing date | 5 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 21.62 |
| Market capitalization | 7,910.39 |
| 12 Month High price date | 3 JUN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 21 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 7.06 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 5.58% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -26.81% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -25.66% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 68.56% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -32.66% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -15.67% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -2.26% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.122 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.122 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.122 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 0.738 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 0.738 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 8.015 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 8.015 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 7.938 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 7.938 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.152 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.152 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.148 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.148 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.289 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.125 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.125 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.125 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.125 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | -2.985 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 85.25 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 85.25 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 14.09 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.31 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 70.03 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.30 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 113.69 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 43.85 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 2,221.08 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 2,482.62 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | -2,007.90 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 54.97% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 55.10% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 60.07% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 60.26% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | -2,007.90 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 496.49 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 496.49 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 194.65 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 194.65 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 28.50 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 28.50 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 82.06 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 82.06 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 28.50 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.12 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 16.53% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 16.53% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | -7.28% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | -7.28% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 5.74% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 5.74% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 6.30% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | -4.79% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | -239.46% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | -404.42% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | -2.50% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 1.07% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 1.07% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 1.71% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 1.71% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | -0.50% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | -0.76% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 15.07% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 7.22% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 11.07% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 17.90% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 45.93% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 7.91% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
GMG +7.03%: and US-listed data center player Digital Realty have moved to build a significant stake in NextDC (ASX: NXT) +50.84% following its recent guidance downgrade and challenges at its M3 Melbourne data center.
NXT –41.72%: Has reopened after its trading halt, with the update worse than initially feared. The delay to power supply at its M3 Melbourne data centre has management guiding FY27 earnings ~35% lower. The bigger concern is the length of the delay, with work on the power connection not expected to restart until February.
We wrote a note on NEXTDC (NXT) last week here, concluding: “We believe NXT is in an accumulation zone, but sentiment could easily drag it down towards its 2025 low, or 10% lower”, and that’s likely this morning. A lot has unfolded in the sector and company since last week.
NXT delivered a solid FY26 result in August, here, which we liked at the time but the stock has continued to be weighed down by rising bond yields. The stock trades at the highest valuation of the pure-play operators, its FY26 EV/EBITDA of 51x reflects the market pricing in a very large, contracted pipeline, but the valuation does compresses sharply to 25x by FY28 as earnings start to come through.
NXT +2.14%: A beat to FY26 expectations and, more importantly, guiding to another sizeable step-up in earnings as its enormous development pipeline converts into billable capacity. Earnings came in of consensus, while FY27 guidance was comfortably above the market. The capex numbers remain eye-watering, but with contracted customers underpinning much of the expansion, NXT is moving from data centre capacity to actually monetising it.
NEXTDC is essentially a leveraged play on the AI and cloud infrastructure buildout. The company spends large amounts of capital constructing data centres, then generates long-duration, recurring revenue streams from customers who rely on those facilities to run mission-critical digital infrastructure, creating a model that increasingly resembles infrastructure investing rather than traditional technology.
Australian major Data Centre operator NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) Is tapping the market for funds again: This time it's undertaking a $1.5 billion (US$1.1 billion) capital raise, as demand for capacity at its facilities surges. NXT has consistently tapped equity markets over the last decade, almost annually since COVID, increasing deal size over time, as capital intensity rises with hyperscale and AI demand.
NXT is Australia’s largest pure-play data-centre operator and developer listed on the ASX. The stock popped +6.6% on Monday after announcing that additional contract wins have lifted its pro forma contracted utilisation by 30% since the 1st of the month. The company's order book has grown steadily, although FY26 guidance for net revenue and earnings (EBITDA) remains unchanged. The stock enjoyed a “first player” advantage over the last decade, but the last l2-18 months have been a tougher time, even as AI workload gathers momentum.
NXT +17.4%: jumped the most since 2010 on artificial intelligence (AI) FY27 workload momentum. At one stage, the stock was up +24%.
NXT has ridden the data centre (DC) roller coaster ride since mid-2024 having halved before recovering over half of the losses since its panic April low. We saw positive signs for the Australian DC operator in Google's June-quarter update. Google called out capacity constraints even as its on-year cloud revenue growth accelerated to 32% from 28% three months earlier. The U.S. tech giant's increased capital expenditure for 2025, and probably for 2026, is a positive demand signal for NXT, which is expanding beyond Australia - no US revenue yet.
MM remains neutral toward NXT
MM is neutral towards NXT around $9
MM is cautiously bullish towards NXT around $10
MM is bullish toward NXT
MM is bullish towards NXT around $15.50
MM is cautiously bullish towards NXT around $13 – post raise
MM is neutral towards NXT
MM is bullish towards NXT
MM is neutral towards NXT around $14
MM is cautiously bullish towards NXT around $13.50
NextDC operates 17 data centers in Australian cities with a focus on co-location and interconnection between enterprises, global cloud, and ICT providers and telecommunication networks. It has another two data centers in Asia and 13 data centers in development or planning stage in Australia, Asia, and New Zealand. NextDC provides physical space, cooling, power, and security services and offers optional technical and project management support. The company's tenants store their servers within the data center and can connect to each other, to and between global public cloud providers and telecommunication network providers via physical and virtual connections. Co-location services allow enterprises to enhance the security of data transmission and reduce latency.
Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish talking Transurban (TCL), AGL Energy (AGL) & NEXTDC (NXT)
Recorded 10am Wed 12th April
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