The ASX200 started the week in stoic fashion on Monday, reclaiming over 70% of early morning losses to end the first day of July down -0.2%. It was a rare session for 2024 when the miners were the backbone of the index while the banks, tech, retail, and real estate stocks were the weak links. However, with FY25 only one day old, we’re not paying any attention to stock/sector rotation. Locally, the economic data remains tepid at best, which might help the RBA resist calls for a rate hike in August:
The last six months have been an obvious “game of two halves,” that the US Value and Growth Indices illustrate perfectly; the Growth Index has surged over +23%, while the Value Index has edged up just +4.5%, and the broad-based S&P500 signed out to the first half of 2024 up +14.5%. The growth stocks benefitted from the boom in AI and the accompanying surge by the “Super Six,” whereas the Value Index was weighed down by a heavy Materials Sector. However, there's not a lot of money to make focusing on the last six months; we need to look forward to what comes next. First, here are some interesting statistics which aren’t exciting for the swelling number of bears.
Today is the final day of FY24. The ASX200 has advanced almost 8%, which translates to above 13% inclusive of dividends. It hasn’t felt that strong since March, but the numbers don’t lie. However, under the hood, it has very much been a game of two halves, with investors pushing winners and valuations ever higher while stocks residing in the “naughty corner” have found it very hard to escape; some examples of performance in FY illustrate the significant polarisation of performance and as we said yesterday, why we love equities, and Active Investing
The hot CPI print on Wednesday caught the market's napping. Expectations were for 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), but unfortunately, it came in at 4.0%. The ramifications for most Australians and equities were clearly on display after the 11.30am data. While the monthly numbers don’t include all components and the RBA gives more weight to the quarterly print, the increase from April's 3.6% suggests inflation is frustratingly still “sticky” after three consecutive months of upward pressure; concerns are growing that a 14th rate hike by the RBA is nigh.
The ASX200 feels poised to breakout on the upside and if were to add a technical caveat to this “Gut Feel” it would simply be while the index can hold above 7780, i.e. from a trading perspective that’s only a 0.7% lower. However at MM we are Active Investors, not traders, hence short term noise is interesting at times but it doesn’t influence our outlook or subsequent positioning. We have noticed, with some frustration, the markets delivered a noticeable degree of performance reversion on the stock level over the last 4-6 weeks, i.e. our Active Growth Portfolio has surrendered some its outperformance. Hence one factor we are monitoring closely is whether 2024 will become a year of two halves from a performance perspective.
The ASX200 started the week in disappointing fashion closing down 0.8% with over 60% of the main board finishing in negative territory. The performance looked even worse on the sector level with 10 of the 11 sectors closing lower, led by the Energy, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary, which all fell over 1%. The market accelerated lower as US futures turned down into lunchtime AEST while importantly there was one-way traffic on the company news front, and it was all negative
It has traditionally been very hard to track the lithium (Li) price closely as sales are conducted via contracts and rely on a benchmarking service to provide a reference price, however, the industry is edging towards more transparent auctions as the likes of Pilbara (PLS) and more recently Albemarle Corp (ALB US) plan to sell more product using an this clearer approach. Perhaps they should be careful what they wish for as Li tests new multi-year lows! Australia’s 6th largest export has plunged over 80% in price since late 2022 causing havoc amongst the producers as the market has gone from fears of shortages to a glut in inventories. This year alone has witnessed some dramatic underperformance from Li related names which has weighed on the broader Resources Sector.
The ASX200 closed unchanged on Thursday with no lead from overseas markets; most local traders simply sat back and watched the Guzman y Gomez (GYG) IPO commence trading. By the end of the day, GYG was up +36%, valuing the Mexican fast food chain at over $3bn. At MM, we thought it would open strongly, but that was above our bullish expectations. As we said yesterday, let's hope this reignites some confidence in both local capital markets and stocks in general.
The ASX200 had a quiet Wednesday as it limped into the US Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. The market ended the session down just 0.1%, with winners and losers almost exactly matched. If anything, we saw a little stock/sector rotation, with profit taking evident in some of the year's best-performing stocks, but on such a holiday-style low-volume day, little should be read into the action.
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong day at the office on Tuesday, adding to a solid opening throughout the day to finish up over 1%. Gains were encouragingly broad-based, with over 75% of the main board and all 11 sectors closing in positive territory as sellers appeared to take a lead from the looming US Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. There were a couple of standout moves that should unsettle the numerous bears who are getting plenty of air time in the press.
The last six months have been an obvious “game of two halves,” that the US Value and Growth Indices illustrate perfectly; the Growth Index has surged over +23%, while the Value Index has edged up just +4.5%, and the broad-based S&P500 signed out to the first half of 2024 up +14.5%. The growth stocks benefitted from the boom in AI and the accompanying surge by the “Super Six,” whereas the Value Index was weighed down by a heavy Materials Sector. However, there's not a lot of money to make focusing on the last six months; we need to look forward to what comes next. First, here are some interesting statistics which aren’t exciting for the swelling number of bears.
Today is the final day of FY24. The ASX200 has advanced almost 8%, which translates to above 13% inclusive of dividends. It hasn’t felt that strong since March, but the numbers don’t lie. However, under the hood, it has very much been a game of two halves, with investors pushing winners and valuations ever higher while stocks residing in the “naughty corner” have found it very hard to escape; some examples of performance in FY illustrate the significant polarisation of performance and as we said yesterday, why we love equities, and Active Investing
The hot CPI print on Wednesday caught the market's napping. Expectations were for 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY), but unfortunately, it came in at 4.0%. The ramifications for most Australians and equities were clearly on display after the 11.30am data. While the monthly numbers don’t include all components and the RBA gives more weight to the quarterly print, the increase from April's 3.6% suggests inflation is frustratingly still “sticky” after three consecutive months of upward pressure; concerns are growing that a 14th rate hike by the RBA is nigh.
The ASX200 feels poised to breakout on the upside and if were to add a technical caveat to this “Gut Feel” it would simply be while the index can hold above 7780, i.e. from a trading perspective that’s only a 0.7% lower. However at MM we are Active Investors, not traders, hence short term noise is interesting at times but it doesn’t influence our outlook or subsequent positioning. We have noticed, with some frustration, the markets delivered a noticeable degree of performance reversion on the stock level over the last 4-6 weeks, i.e. our Active Growth Portfolio has surrendered some its outperformance. Hence one factor we are monitoring closely is whether 2024 will become a year of two halves from a performance perspective.
The ASX200 started the week in disappointing fashion closing down 0.8% with over 60% of the main board finishing in negative territory. The performance looked even worse on the sector level with 10 of the 11 sectors closing lower, led by the Energy, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary, which all fell over 1%. The market accelerated lower as US futures turned down into lunchtime AEST while importantly there was one-way traffic on the company news front, and it was all negative
It has traditionally been very hard to track the lithium (Li) price closely as sales are conducted via contracts and rely on a benchmarking service to provide a reference price, however, the industry is edging towards more transparent auctions as the likes of Pilbara (PLS) and more recently Albemarle Corp (ALB US) plan to sell more product using an this clearer approach. Perhaps they should be careful what they wish for as Li tests new multi-year lows! Australia’s 6th largest export has plunged over 80% in price since late 2022 causing havoc amongst the producers as the market has gone from fears of shortages to a glut in inventories. This year alone has witnessed some dramatic underperformance from Li related names which has weighed on the broader Resources Sector.
The ASX200 closed unchanged on Thursday with no lead from overseas markets; most local traders simply sat back and watched the Guzman y Gomez (GYG) IPO commence trading. By the end of the day, GYG was up +36%, valuing the Mexican fast food chain at over $3bn. At MM, we thought it would open strongly, but that was above our bullish expectations. As we said yesterday, let's hope this reignites some confidence in both local capital markets and stocks in general.
The ASX200 had a quiet Wednesday as it limped into the US Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. The market ended the session down just 0.1%, with winners and losers almost exactly matched. If anything, we saw a little stock/sector rotation, with profit taking evident in some of the year's best-performing stocks, but on such a holiday-style low-volume day, little should be read into the action.
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong day at the office on Tuesday, adding to a solid opening throughout the day to finish up over 1%. Gains were encouragingly broad-based, with over 75% of the main board and all 11 sectors closing in positive territory as sellers appeared to take a lead from the looming US Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. There were a couple of standout moves that should unsettle the numerous bears who are getting plenty of air time in the press.
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