23/04/2024 09:00

Global Markets

US stocks rallied 0.9% overnight, although they surrendered 40% of their gains into the close as investors braced for the earnings numbers from the big tech stocks, starting with Tesla (TSLA US). The Dow posted its best day in 2-weeks, making it three up days in a row, as bonds finally stabilised ahead of a barrage of US quarterly earnings data over the coming days. Precious metals fell to 2-week lows as geopolitical tensions eased with weakness likely in the sector this morning.

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16/04/2024 09:24

Global Markets

US stocks slipped lower overnight following the hot retail sales print and concerns that the Middle East conflict would escalate further. The macro factors overshadowed a strong earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS US), which closed up +2.9%. Elsewhere on the stock level, Salesforce (CRM US) dropped 7% on reports that the software company was in talks to acquire data management firm Informatica.

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15/04/2024 09:10

Commodities

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12/04/2024 09:05

Global Markets

US stocks enjoyed a solid rebound overnight, led by the rate-sensitive tech and consumer discretionary sectors. However, the huge influence of the major tech names on US indices was illustrated again. Six of the eleven major S&P500 sectors closed lower, yet the index rose 0.74%. We believe, 2024/5 is set to continue to reward optimum stock and sector positioning. Slightly lower-than-expected wholesale-price growth offered some relief to markets.

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10/04/2024 09:25

First Up

Overnight, the influential former Federal Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he's expecting three rate cuts in 2024 as inflation moves towards the Feds target even while the economy remains resilient, i.e. the “Goldilocks” scenario for stocks. Bullard’s outlook echoed the Fed’s messaging as opposed to the increasing market expectations that two cuts have become more likely than three, e.g. Treasury yields made new highs for the year on Monday night. Mr Bullard is indirectly quoting the old adage of “don’t fight the Fed”.

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08/04/2024 08:43

First Up

Gold surged to new all-time highs last week, shrugging off a pullback in bonds (higher yields). The trend of precious metals is usually determined or significantly influenced by interest rates, but not at the moment—higher interest rates make zero-yielding assets such as gold less attractive from a relative perspective. There are arguably three main drivers of gold at the moment, with two very bullish and one mildly bearish short-term.

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05/04/2024 09:11

Gold

There is nothing overly new to add here; MM is bullish toward gold, which aligns with our bearish outlook for bond yields, but we are conscious that the precious metal has already scaled our initial target area.

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02/04/2024 09:05

First Up

Gold popped almost $US50/oz yesterday evening, posting another fresh all-time high in the process as investors/traders further digested last week's market-friendly PCE Index data. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation is cooling which suggests the Fed is getting ever closer to cutting rates. The precious metal is also enjoying the added tailwind of powerful Chinese demand and ongoing global political tensions, what's not to like? Gold has surged ~12% over the last six weeks, and with no near term end in sight for the three bullish drivers mentioned previously, we can see it testing $US2400-2500 before Christmas.

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27/03/2024 09:15

Global Markets

US indices delivered a similar session overnight as the ASX on Tuesday, with advances during the day encountering afternoon selling, or as we called it, book-squaring. This happens when stocks have strongly outperformed bonds during a reporting period, forcing multi asset manager to sell equities and buy bonds to get their asset allocation in line before quarter end.

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25/03/2024 08:40

Commodities

Gold surged to fresh all-time highs last week in its traditional $US terms, but when we look at the precious metal in Aussie Dollars, the advance is even more impressive courtesy of the weak local currency. Arguably, this compounds the frustration around how poorly the local gold sector has traded over recent times. However, it’s a global phenomenon, with higher bond yields being the issue for gold stocks.

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