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Morning report

Macro Monday: Lan Fo’an might not have done enough on Saturday…

Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised more support for China’s struggling property sector and hinted at more significant government borrowing to shore up the economy, but again, it lacked the granular details investors were looking for. The briefing didn’t produce a headline dollar figure for the fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we follow RIO further into the lithium space?

The ASX200 finished up just +0.1% in a choppy session on Wednesday, with the banks offsetting further weakness by the miners – a 6.67% plunge by Chinese stocks didn't help. A 1.8% surge in New Zealand’s equities after the RBNZ cut rates by 0.5% helped local sentiment. Still, it wasn’t enough to make meaningful gains as the heavyweight iron ore miners dragged the chain due to China's lack of further stimulus measures on Tuesday. However, we wouldn't fight Beijing, who announced yesterday evening AEST that further announcements will follow on Saturday when markets are closed—we “wouldn’t be short for quids.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China stimulus euphoria takes a well-deserved rest

The ASX200 retreated -0.35% on Tuesday after a briefing from China’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on further stimulus. We thought there was a distinct risk of “buy on rumour and sell on fact” playing out, but instead, with few facts actually being released, it was simply a case of sell.
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Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): China back after Golden Week festivities

Recent stimulus announced by Beijing and the PBOC included interest-rate cuts, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term depreciation in property prices – as we’ve said before a “whatever it takes approach”. Chinese stocks are due to reopen this morning after enjoying the Golden Week break, with many analysts now expecting further gains into Christmas.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the “Trump Trade” back on as he nudges ahead at the Bookies?

The ASX200 experienced another quiet session as China Golden Week approached its conclusion. The index finished up +0.1%, even with over 50% of the market closing lower. However, when CBA, BHP, and CSL all advanced, the markets were going to be well supported. Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong took a rest after surging ~30%, but a 1.6% pullback was nothing to worry the bulls.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: If the expected path for rate cuts is “as good as it gets”, what next?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session on Wednesday down just -0.1%, with over 65% of the main board ending lower. However, another solid session by the resources, particularly energy names, was enough to stem the losses. Escalation of the Middle East conflict set the tone early in the morning, but buying in the likes of Beach Energy (BPT) +4.6% and Woodside (WDS) +3.1% almost offset general selling on concerns after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran for its missile attack – the regions on a knife edge
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IZZ
MM is bullish towards Chinese equities and related assets.
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IZZ
MM believes Chinese stocks will consolidate recent gains through October
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MM is bullish toward the ASX200 ~8200
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IVV
MM’s preferred outlook is US stocks rally into Christmas
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IVV
MM is cautiously bullish towards US equities
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IEU
MM is bullish toward European equities
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MM is cautiously bullish on Australian 3s (yields lower)
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MM is bullish toward copper
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MM is cautiously bullish towards gold
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MM is bullish toward the $A into 2025
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MM is bullish towards the Euro medium/long-term
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Buy Nvidia (NVDA US) under $US135 as a trade
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A Trump victory is theoretically net bullish stocks

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we follow RIO further into the lithium space?

The ASX200 finished up just +0.1% in a choppy session on Wednesday, with the banks offsetting further weakness by the miners – a 6.67% plunge by Chinese stocks didn't help. A 1.8% surge in New Zealand’s equities after the RBNZ cut rates by 0.5% helped local sentiment. Still, it wasn’t enough to make meaningful gains as the heavyweight iron ore miners dragged the chain due to China's lack of further stimulus measures on Tuesday. However, we wouldn't fight Beijing, who announced yesterday evening AEST that further announcements will follow on Saturday when markets are closed—we “wouldn’t be short for quids.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China stimulus euphoria takes a well-deserved rest

The ASX200 retreated -0.35% on Tuesday after a briefing from China’s National Development and Reform Commission provided few details on further stimulus. We thought there was a distinct risk of “buy on rumour and sell on fact” playing out, but instead, with few facts actually being released, it was simply a case of sell.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): China back after Golden Week festivities

Recent stimulus announced by Beijing and the PBOC included interest-rate cuts, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term depreciation in property prices – as we’ve said before a “whatever it takes approach”. Chinese stocks are due to reopen this morning after enjoying the Golden Week break, with many analysts now expecting further gains into Christmas.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the “Trump Trade” back on as he nudges ahead at the Bookies?

The ASX200 experienced another quiet session as China Golden Week approached its conclusion. The index finished up +0.1%, even with over 50% of the market closing lower. However, when CBA, BHP, and CSL all advanced, the markets were going to be well supported. Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong took a rest after surging ~30%, but a 1.6% pullback was nothing to worry the bulls.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: If the expected path for rate cuts is “as good as it gets”, what next?

The ASX200 finished a choppy session on Wednesday down just -0.1%, with over 65% of the main board ending lower. However, another solid session by the resources, particularly energy names, was enough to stem the losses. Escalation of the Middle East conflict set the tone early in the morning, but buying in the likes of Beach Energy (BPT) +4.6% and Woodside (WDS) +3.1% almost offset general selling on concerns after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran for its missile attack – the regions on a knife edge

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: China brings out the stimulus big guns, and markets listen!

Last week, Beijing pressed the “whatever it takes button” to jumpstart their struggling economy that’s currently on course to miss its annual GDP growth target of ~5%. Financial markets across the world stood back and took notice, with the Shanghai Composite surging to a three-month high

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