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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Now bond yields are unnerving equities

MM talked about the ASX200 rotating around the 7400 area in Tuesdays “What Matters Today” Report only for it close under 7300 just 7-hours later as broad based selling rolled through the index – in hindsight the local index again called the overnight drop in US stocks perfectly . The losses were focused in the interest rate sensitive growth stocks such as Healthcare -3.6% and Tech -2.9%, importantly if MM is correct and bond yields are going to maintain their upward momentum into 2022 the rotation out of growth into value names should be ongoing – our portfolios which...
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Gladys puts her pedal to the metal!

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid start to the week although it did experience some pretty aggressive selling into the close which aligns with our view that the strong post COVID rally is maturing i.e. some sellers are appearing into strength. While the banks led the charge on Monday they were very well supported by the “re-opening trade” as Gladys looks to put COVID well and truly into the rear view mirror – as she said “living with COVID won’t be easy but its manageable”. At this stage we continue to believe the...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Septembers seasonality delivers, “do you feel lucky”

The ASX200 along with most global indices has taken a dive this month, its amazing how fundamentals have a habit of delivering events which coincide with the dominant seasonal trends i.e. September is regarded by many as the worst month to invest in equities. The fascinating impact of human psychology as it swings between “Fear & Greed” is evident when a market falls as expected only for investors to then find themselves questioning their fortitude to stand up and buy when things feel bad – an action which is usually but not always the correct course...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Australian tech poised for another leg higher?

The penultimate day of the trading week saw local stocks stage a strong recovery and we commence today’s session with the index down less than 0.5% for the week, what Chinese property panic! The market enjoyed broad based buying yesterday with over 80% of stocks rallying led by the Energy and IT names although impressively all 11 sectors managed to post gains. The re-opening / economic recovery trade came back into focus as NSW’s vaccination rate continues to increase above all but the most optimistic expectations, at the current pace 90% of the eligible population...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: How are Australian Property stocks faring as China stumbles?

Wednesday saw the ASX200 rally strongly from early sharp losses after the PBOC (China’s central bank) injected more Yuan than anticipated into its banking system coupled with embattled property group Evergrande announcing it would make an interest payment today – the latter is a small step along a long journey but the action out of Beijing implies the communist party intends to “manage” the situation. The market reaction wasn’t so much one of huge “risk on” as opposed to a strong bounce / sigh of relief after a tough period with the recovery most noticeable in the large cap iron ore names:
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is Septembers pullback already behind us?

The ASX200 staged a strong recovery yesterday after initially taking Septembers sell-off to 343-points / 4.6%, coincidentally testing our 7200 target area in the process. Ultimately Tuesday was a frustrating session for MM as we sat poised to increase risk into the pullback but our targeted purchases all fell short of our ideal levels discussed in recent reports. We must always remember that investing is rarely a perfect science and our main focus running into October will be more around whether MM pays up...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Sharpening the MM pencil as ‘risk off’ emerges

The ASX200 was hit hard on Monday falling by more than 2% on very broad based selling. The only pocket of strength coming from the utilities sector which benefited from yet more corporate activity from cashed up foreign investors, this time Canada’s Brookfield took aim at AusNet Services (AST) which is involved in electricity & gas distribution in Victoria elevating the stock by ~20%. There is certainly cash around for critical infrastructure assets that can lock in long term funding at attractive rates.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: It’s September & equities are again struggling

The ASX200 only slipped 3 meagre points last week but if you were overweight the iron ore sector it would have felt very different as Beijing’s ongoing clampdown on steel production, courtesy of their migration towards lower emissions, drove the price of the bulk commodity lower. Come Friday afternoon iron ore had more than halved in just 1-month hammering the likes of Fortescue Metals (FMG), RIO Tinto (RIO) and BHP Group (BHP) in the process. We have a few takeout’s from this seismic repricing over recent weeks:
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks that have popped, time to sell?

The ASX200 rallied strongly yesterday as it enjoyed broad-based buying, by 4pm 60% of the index had closed in positive territory with the Energy Sector again best on ground following the strong rally by crude oil. Outside of iron ore names which have seen the likes of Fortescue Metals Group tumble 35% in just 8-weeks, although it did pay a major dividend on route, the broad market has been devoid of any meaningful selling as we continue to hover within a few percent of its all-time high.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 “elastic bands” MM are monitoring closely

The ASX200 slipped 20-points lower on Wednesday primarily because the index is more heavily weighted towards the value, as opposed to growth stocks i.e. banks and resources. Fortunately a strong performance from the Healthcare & IT stocks stemmed the losses as the market continued to embrace Tuesday’s dovish comments from the RBA. To put things into perspective the Healthcare & IT stocks make up by less than 16% of the ASX200 compared to 41% for the US S&P500 i.e. the growth names exert far less influence on the Australian index.
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MM believes stocks are a buy into current weakness
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BHP
MM remains positive BHP
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OSH
MM is bullish OSH initially looking for 15% upside
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COH
MM is neutral / bearish COH
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MM is bullish bond yields into 2022
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IGO
MM is looking to add to our IGO holding
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APA
MM is now bullish APA as a defensive income play
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DUB
MM is interested in DUB ~10% lower
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MM is looking to increase our US banking exposure via one of the above
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MM is looking to buy the ACDC ETF and switch part of our MNRS position into the COPX
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Gladys puts her pedal to the metal!

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid start to the week although it did experience some pretty aggressive selling into the close which aligns with our view that the strong post COVID rally is maturing i.e. some sellers are appearing into strength. While the banks led the charge on Monday they were very well supported by the “re-opening trade” as Gladys looks to put COVID well and truly into the rear view mirror – as she said “living with COVID won’t be easy but its manageable”. At this stage we continue to believe the...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Septembers seasonality delivers, “do you feel lucky”

The ASX200 along with most global indices has taken a dive this month, its amazing how fundamentals have a habit of delivering events which coincide with the dominant seasonal trends i.e. September is regarded by many as the worst month to invest in equities. The fascinating impact of human psychology as it swings between “Fear & Greed” is evident when a market falls as expected only for investors to then find themselves questioning their fortitude to stand up and buy when things feel bad – an action which is usually but not always the correct course...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Australian tech poised for another leg higher?

The penultimate day of the trading week saw local stocks stage a strong recovery and we commence today’s session with the index down less than 0.5% for the week, what Chinese property panic! The market enjoyed broad based buying yesterday with over 80% of stocks rallying led by the Energy and IT names although impressively all 11 sectors managed to post gains. The re-opening / economic recovery trade came back into focus as NSW’s vaccination rate continues to increase above all but the most optimistic expectations, at the current pace 90% of the eligible population...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: How are Australian Property stocks faring as China stumbles?

Wednesday saw the ASX200 rally strongly from early sharp losses after the PBOC (China’s central bank) injected more Yuan than anticipated into its banking system coupled with embattled property group Evergrande announcing it would make an interest payment today – the latter is a small step along a long journey but the action out of Beijing implies the communist party intends to “manage” the situation. The market reaction wasn’t so much one of huge “risk on” as opposed to a strong bounce / sigh of relief after a tough period with the recovery most noticeable in the large cap iron ore names:

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is Septembers pullback already behind us?

The ASX200 staged a strong recovery yesterday after initially taking Septembers sell-off to 343-points / 4.6%, coincidentally testing our 7200 target area in the process. Ultimately Tuesday was a frustrating session for MM as we sat poised to increase risk into the pullback but our targeted purchases all fell short of our ideal levels discussed in recent reports. We must always remember that investing is rarely a perfect science and our main focus running into October will be more around whether MM pays up...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Sharpening the MM pencil as ‘risk off’ emerges

The ASX200 was hit hard on Monday falling by more than 2% on very broad based selling. The only pocket of strength coming from the utilities sector which benefited from yet more corporate activity from cashed up foreign investors, this time Canada’s Brookfield took aim at AusNet Services (AST) which is involved in electricity & gas distribution in Victoria elevating the stock by ~20%. There is certainly cash around for critical infrastructure assets that can lock in long term funding at attractive rates.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: It’s September & equities are again struggling

The ASX200 only slipped 3 meagre points last week but if you were overweight the iron ore sector it would have felt very different as Beijing’s ongoing clampdown on steel production, courtesy of their migration towards lower emissions, drove the price of the bulk commodity lower. Come Friday afternoon iron ore had more than halved in just 1-month hammering the likes of Fortescue Metals (FMG), RIO Tinto (RIO) and BHP Group (BHP) in the process. We have a few takeout’s from this seismic repricing over recent weeks:

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks that have popped, time to sell?

The ASX200 rallied strongly yesterday as it enjoyed broad-based buying, by 4pm 60% of the index had closed in positive territory with the Energy Sector again best on ground following the strong rally by crude oil. Outside of iron ore names which have seen the likes of Fortescue Metals Group tumble 35% in just 8-weeks, although it did pay a major dividend on route, the broad market has been devoid of any meaningful selling as we continue to hover within a few percent of its all-time high.

Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 “elastic bands” MM are monitoring closely

The ASX200 slipped 20-points lower on Wednesday primarily because the index is more heavily weighted towards the value, as opposed to growth stocks i.e. banks and resources. Fortunately a strong performance from the Healthcare & IT stocks stemmed the losses as the market continued to embrace Tuesday’s dovish comments from the RBA. To put things into perspective the Healthcare & IT stocks make up by less than 16% of the ASX200 compared to 41% for the US S&P500 i.e. the growth names exert far less influence on the Australian index.

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