The ASX200 closed marginally higher on Tuesday as it continued to hover around the 7500 level, the number of winners & losers almost exactly matched with only 1% of stocks moving by over 5% i.e. there was little on the stock level to excite investors following the Labor Day holiday in the US. However on the macro / news level there was a couple of interesting events catching our attention:
The ASX200 again rallied strongly after briefly dipping below the 7450 level – I’m almost getting bored of saying “buy the dip” but yet again the local market found a low just as Gladys delivered the NSW’s COVID statistics before enjoying solid buying throughout the day to reverse early loses and close marginally higher, a +1.2% intraday turnaround. Very similar to the trend in home schoolings, the low is certainly formed in the AM before a recovery plays out in the PM! Yesterday it was the unusual combination of IT, Gold and Reopening stocks led...
The ASX200 is a few days into what’s been a very quiet start to September, over the last decade August & September have combined to fall an average of -3.8% but last month’s +1.9% advance should have already warned statisticians that there’s nothing normal about the strength of the post COVID stock market rally – at MM we’re sticking with the trend of “Buy the dips but only fade the “pops” to new highs”. A quick comparison to the current rally with the one after the GFC illustrates...
The ASX200 slipped -0.55% yesterday but once we take out the huge dividends delivered to happy investors the market actually hardly moved e.g. BHP Group (BHP) $2.74, CSL Ltd (CSL) $1.64, Woolworths (WOW) 55c and Perpetual (PPT) 96c. Importantly these funds will drop into shareholders bank accounts around the end of September / start of October providing yet another tailwind for this already resilient market i.e. a significant portion of investors simply reinvest their dividends back into the market...
The ASX200 continued to follow the 2021 playbook yesterday by falling fairly hard into a 10.30 am low prior to grinding higher throughout the day, it finally closed 0.9% above the intra-day low, down just -0.1% i.e. “buy the dip” still reins supreme. Winners actually marginally trumped the losers with the banks in particular catching my eye on the upside with National Bank (NAB) popping +2.2% to make fresh post COVID highs. Septembers off and running and if the ASX200 dances to the same rhythm as it has since May we should be testing ~7700 in the coming weeks.
The ASX200 closed out August in a very similar fashion to much of the previous 6-months i.e. dipping into a mid-morning low before rallying steadily throughout the day. The steady buying was broad-based with almost 70% of stocks advancing although it again felt more like a lack of selling as opposed to an ongoing scramble for risk assets – it’s no great surprise the buying feels more restrained when we consider the ASX200 has already surged 1115-points / 17% from the first week of May. No change...
The ASX200 struggled higher on Monday following an early morning sell-off to finally close up +0.2% courtesy of a stellar performance by the Resources Sector e.g. South32 (S32) +6.2%, Fortescue Metals (FMG) +6.6% and OZ Minerals (OZL) +3.7%. The end of reporting season continued to deliver extreme moves on the stock level with Altium (ALU) missing on margins while Twiggy Forrest’s Fortescue Metals (FMG) delivered a stellar report card leading to a ~20% differential in performance between the 2 stocks in just one day = volatility!
The ASX200 had a choppy but overall uneventful week on the index level but under the hood reporting season continued to deliver some fascinating volatility. History tells us that companies which rally strongly on good results generally outperform the index for months to come, a couple of lines from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC over the weekend caught my eye, especially considering the position of our market as we exit this eventful period which directors generally love, or hate, depending on their year:
The ASX200 suffered a tough Thursday closing out the day over -0.5% lower with only 30% of the index managing to close in positive territory, only really the Telco stocks managed to rally as a group. Volatility on the stock level remained elevated as reporting season starts to deliver a negative bias after promising so much early on, over the day we only saw 4 stocks rally by 4% while more than 14 companies fall by the same degree. As is usual this time of year the last 5-days has created a...
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Wednesday session with the combination of strong earnings and aggressive chasing of some recovery stocks ultimately leading to a +0.4% advance - 12 shares rallied by 5%, and more, while only 4 names fell by the same degree. A couple of standout themes on the stock and sector level caught our attention yesterday with an underlying belief that Australia will be 70-80% vaccinated and trading basically as usual by Christmas shining through:
The ASX200 again rallied strongly after briefly dipping below the 7450 level – I’m almost getting bored of saying “buy the dip” but yet again the local market found a low just as Gladys delivered the NSW’s COVID statistics before enjoying solid buying throughout the day to reverse early loses and close marginally higher, a +1.2% intraday turnaround. Very similar to the trend in home schoolings, the low is certainly formed in the AM before a recovery plays out in the PM! Yesterday it was the unusual combination of IT, Gold and Reopening stocks led...
The ASX200 is a few days into what’s been a very quiet start to September, over the last decade August & September have combined to fall an average of -3.8% but last month’s +1.9% advance should have already warned statisticians that there’s nothing normal about the strength of the post COVID stock market rally – at MM we’re sticking with the trend of “Buy the dips but only fade the “pops” to new highs”. A quick comparison to the current rally with the one after the GFC illustrates...
The ASX200 slipped -0.55% yesterday but once we take out the huge dividends delivered to happy investors the market actually hardly moved e.g. BHP Group (BHP) $2.74, CSL Ltd (CSL) $1.64, Woolworths (WOW) 55c and Perpetual (PPT) 96c. Importantly these funds will drop into shareholders bank accounts around the end of September / start of October providing yet another tailwind for this already resilient market i.e. a significant portion of investors simply reinvest their dividends back into the market...
The ASX200 continued to follow the 2021 playbook yesterday by falling fairly hard into a 10.30 am low prior to grinding higher throughout the day, it finally closed 0.9% above the intra-day low, down just -0.1% i.e. “buy the dip” still reins supreme. Winners actually marginally trumped the losers with the banks in particular catching my eye on the upside with National Bank (NAB) popping +2.2% to make fresh post COVID highs. Septembers off and running and if the ASX200 dances to the same rhythm as it has since May we should be testing ~7700 in the coming weeks.
The ASX200 closed out August in a very similar fashion to much of the previous 6-months i.e. dipping into a mid-morning low before rallying steadily throughout the day. The steady buying was broad-based with almost 70% of stocks advancing although it again felt more like a lack of selling as opposed to an ongoing scramble for risk assets – it’s no great surprise the buying feels more restrained when we consider the ASX200 has already surged 1115-points / 17% from the first week of May. No change...
The ASX200 struggled higher on Monday following an early morning sell-off to finally close up +0.2% courtesy of a stellar performance by the Resources Sector e.g. South32 (S32) +6.2%, Fortescue Metals (FMG) +6.6% and OZ Minerals (OZL) +3.7%. The end of reporting season continued to deliver extreme moves on the stock level with Altium (ALU) missing on margins while Twiggy Forrest’s Fortescue Metals (FMG) delivered a stellar report card leading to a ~20% differential in performance between the 2 stocks in just one day = volatility!
The ASX200 had a choppy but overall uneventful week on the index level but under the hood reporting season continued to deliver some fascinating volatility. History tells us that companies which rally strongly on good results generally outperform the index for months to come, a couple of lines from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC over the weekend caught my eye, especially considering the position of our market as we exit this eventful period which directors generally love, or hate, depending on their year:
The ASX200 suffered a tough Thursday closing out the day over -0.5% lower with only 30% of the index managing to close in positive territory, only really the Telco stocks managed to rally as a group. Volatility on the stock level remained elevated as reporting season starts to deliver a negative bias after promising so much early on, over the day we only saw 4 stocks rally by 4% while more than 14 companies fall by the same degree. As is usual this time of year the last 5-days has created a...
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Wednesday session with the combination of strong earnings and aggressive chasing of some recovery stocks ultimately leading to a +0.4% advance - 12 shares rallied by 5%, and more, while only 4 names fell by the same degree. A couple of standout themes on the stock and sector level caught our attention yesterday with an underlying belief that Australia will be 70-80% vaccinated and trading basically as usual by Christmas shining through:
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