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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 0.21 Fair value 0.42 One-star price 0.83
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (0.21) to the one-star price (0.83).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/— |
| Exchange Rate: — |
| Price - closing or last bid | 0.40 |
| Price - 12 month high | 0.95 |
| Price - 12 month low | 0.38 |
| Pricing date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.36 |
| Market capitalization | 97.49 |
| 12 Month High price date | 31 JUL 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 27 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.55 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -4.76% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | — |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | — |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -5.88% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | — |
| Price - YTD price percent change | — |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -13.04% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | — |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | — |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | — |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | — |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | — |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | — |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | — |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | — |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | — |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | — |
| Net Debt, LFI | — |
| Net Debt, LFY | — |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | — |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | — |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | — |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | — |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | — |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | — |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | — |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | — |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | — |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | — |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | — |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | — |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | — |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
Financial statements are not available for this company yet.
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
ALU +28.47%: Ouch! Never a nice feeling when a stock that we recently sold gets a takeover bid at a ~34% premium. Today, Japanese semiconductor maker Renesas Electronics agreed to buy software firm Altium for $9.1bn / $68.50 per share, in what is the biggest acquisition yet of an Australian-listed company by a Japanese buyer.
Year-to-date, the performance between these two names has been fairly similar, with ORA up +6.2% and ALU +4.8%, but over the last 5 months, it's been a very different story with ALU adding ~40% while ORA has dropped by over -30% following its capital raise to buy Saverglass in 2023. This is clearly not a like-for-like switch, but such a move fits our desired portfolio characteristic positioning moving forward.
There is no change, with ALU edging higher this year even as yields reversed. We see no reason to doubt our view that the stock can squeeze higher into its February report after surging ~30% after its last update. Who wants to be short this time? We are considering adopting a “buy on rumour, sell on fact” attitude if such a move materialises
ALU surged higher when it reported in August; hence, we can see it running higher into its result on the 20th of February, which could provide an ideal opportunity to lock in a profit above $50, i.e. “buy on rumour, sell on fact” but in reverse. MM believes ALU is a great company, but it will be fully valued at around $50, especially as the Tech Sector looks stretched.
We are overweight the Tech Sector at this stage, holding Altium (ALU) and Xero (XRO), which, importantly, is a sector whose stellar outperformance we believe is maturing fast. Hence we do anticipate cutting at least one of these holdings over the coming weeks.
ALU has rallied over +32% year-to-date, with much of the gain enjoyed after the company's strong result in August. The company delivered an encouraging investor day in November when they were optimistic about their ability to penetrate the Enterprise PCB software market, which is on track to double in size to $1.6bn by 2030.
ALU, like most of the Tech Sector, has enjoyed a solid 2023, advancing +26% year-to-date, but again, the last few months have proved disappointing as the stocks corrected 21% after an aggressive drive higher following an impressive result in August.
ALU surged in August after reporting earnings ahead of expectations for FY23 in both composition and numerical terms. We rate their management team highly, making this our favourite local tech stock with a scalable business model. The company doesn’t report until February, taking that risk off the table for the foreseeable future.
We are tweaking the Flagship Growth Portfolio, selling an underperformer to buy a high quality tech stock.
ALU surged around 35% after the software provider reported strong results in August. Earnings were ahead of expectations for FY23, but more importantly, the composition of their earnings improved, underpinning better guidance – this is one local tech business that should be able to enjoy strong moves by its US peers.
MM believes the Renesas deal will complete at $68.50
MM is looking to switch from ALU to ORA
MM are selling ALU in the Active Growth Portfolio, taking profit around $49.35
MM is long and bullish ALU short-term
MM remains long and cautiously bullish toward ALU
MM is long and cautiously bullish on ALU
MM is long and bullish ALU short-term
MM is considering switching from ALU to APA
MM is long and bullish towards ALU
MM are buying ALU in the Flagship Growth Portfolio, allocating 5% around $42
Alurion Resources Ltd is a mineral exploration company focused on the discovery and development of bauxite and gallium in Brazil. The Amargosa Project is the company's only asset. The project is a large scale bauxite project located in thestate of Bahia, Brazil.
Video Update: Discussing 3 of our dud stocks & 3 of our winners
Recorded 10th November
Weekly Video Update: James covers bond yields, Telstra, Crown & Altium
Weekly Video Update: We cover our views on ALU, CWN, Z1P & WZR.
Published 16th June
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