What Matters Today: Three stocks we're watching with aggressive reversion unfolding.

MM has been adopting a more defensive stance over recent weeks, but it’s never enough when the index registers a triple-digit decline. However, as the ASX200 threatens to break cleanly below 7900, the psychological 8000 area is rapidly becoming a distant memory, although while it doesn’t feel like it, the ASX200 is still up +1.2% in July. While we are not index punters at MM, it is important to recognise the risks as/when they arise; as stocks enter the seasonally weak August and September, a pullback towards 7500 should not be discounted, i.e. another 4-5% lower. Hence, at this stage, we remain open minded about what comes next, in no hurry to migrate back up the “risk curve”, although we’re not as far down it as we’d like to be with our tilt towards commodities.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 18/08/2025 18:02

The Match Out: Banks underpin a mild gain for the ASX

The ASX whipsawed between positive and negative territory today with another strong move from the banks providing some stability, pushing the index higher into the close. Results continue to stream in and were mixed today, though only 16% of the top 200 companies have reported - so still plenty more to come.

Morning report 18/08/2025 09:15

Macro Monday: Should we be concerned about high valuations?

We are now seven weeks into FY26, and global markets are trading at or near all-time highs. The ASX 200, including dividends, is up 4.7%, supported by a 13.7% rally in Resources and gains of more than 8% from Healthcare, Utilities, and Energy.

Weekend report 16/08/2025 09:48

Weekend Q&A: ASX ends the week at a fresh high as results season heats up

A strong end to the week saw the ASX200 advance 1.5%, breaking to new all-time highs above 8,900. It was only a little over four months ago that the ASX was trading below 7,200, clouded by an aggressive tariff regime implemented by the president of the world’s largest economy. While the tariff situation remains a work in progress, with a deal yet to be signed between China and the US, it has quickly faded from headlines. Deals with other countries suggest the same will happen between the two superpowers, and our view at the time—that huge tariffs simply didn’t work as policy and therefore had to be a strategy—appears to be playing out.

Afternoon report 15/08/2025 17:42

The Match Out: ASX adds 1.5% for the week, closes at new all-time highs

Another strong session to end a positive week for stocks, with the ASX defying a flat session overseas to chalk up a new all-time closing high, above 8900 for the first time.

Morning report 15/08/2025 08:40

ETF Friday: A deep dive into our Core ETF Portfolio, and how it can be used

Two of the most widely held stocks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Telstra (TLS), both confirmed this week that crowded/momentum trades can be problematic. Meeting earnings expectations when the market is positioned for an upside surprise is simply not good enough.

Afternoon report 14/08/2025 18:12

The Match Out: WBC quarterly fuels Bank rally as ASX hits fresh intra-day high

The ASX hit new intra day highs today, driven by strong gains in Financials and Utilities after upbeat earnings results from Westpac and Origin. Bank stocks followed the WBC result up with CBA the weakest link for a second straight session. Employment data this morning eased concerns of a weakening job market and took some fuel off the fire for a rate cut at next month’s RBA meeting.

Morning report 14/08/2025 09:40