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The Japanese Nikkei has followed our roadmap nicely in 2024; if we remain on point, the index has another 4-6% downside, but it has already corrected 75% of our targeted retracement. Patience is often a virtue for investors, and the Nikkei is looking on track to test the 35,000-36.000 region.
The ASX200 market slipped lower throughout the shortened week, finally closing down -2%, with a very heavy Resources Sector dragging the index lower. The EOFY is only a fortnight away, with volatility likely to lift on the stock level, and history tells us that’s not great for the underperformers. Year to date, the Materials Sector is down -11.7%, making it a prime target for some tax loss selling.
The Japanese Nikkei has followed the “MM Roadmap” perfectly through 2024, which makes it worth watching carefully as it is highly correlated to other global indices, including the ASX. For example, the Nikkei endured a 10.6% correction in April when the ASX200 fell 5.3%. If the Nikkei continues to follow our path, it’s a good sign in the short term, but caution is warranted into strength.
The ASX200 is already up +2% in May and looks set to add to those gains this morning. This month’s advance has been fuelled by market-friendly economic data, pushing rate-sensitive stocks higher as interest rate cuts stormed back on the menu for 2024. However, this week looks set to be dominated by the Resources Sector after copper and precious metals surged higher at the end of last week - on Friday, the copper ETF (COPX US) surged +4.7% while the gold ETF (GDX US) advanced +3.4%.
US stocks improved overnight, with all three major U.S. indexes rising modestly to start a big week for earnings and economic updates. Earnings season will commence in earnest tomorrow when results from Amazon.com, McDonald’s, and Coca-Cola are delivered. The FED’s policy announcement on Wednesday is likely to show if investors are correct to be losing hope of interest-rate cuts in 2024, while Friday’s jobs report will give more clues on the strength of the US economy.
The ASX200 started to unwind last week, taking its recent pullback to more than 5%; it felt far worse into Friday lunchtime. Capitulation-like selling washed through the ASX at the end of last week as we heard that Israel had launched attacks on Iran. However, ironically, crude oil finished the week noticeably lower, and gold failed to make new highs, implying plenty of the Middle East news is already built into markets.
US indices experienced another mixed session overnight, with the S&P500 extending its recent pullback to 4%, a fairly controlled move considering the repricing that’s rolled through credit markets, e.g. the US 10s tested 4.7% last night following Powell's comments after starting the year under 3.8%. The Dow managed to snap a 6-day losing streak overnight, but only just after United Health (UNH US) advanced +5.2% on the back of better-than-expected revenue, which outweighed Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US), which slipped 2.1%. In the banking sector, earnings reports drove a very mixed performance with Morgan Stanley (MS US) +2.5% while Bank of America (BAC US) slipped -3.5%.
The ASX200 slipped 1.6% as it kicked off April with a shortened week. As we’ve pointed out a few times recently, every month of 2024 has delivered an average pullback of around 260 points —so far, April has produced a 169-point pullback, and it's only one week old. Our preferred scenario is that the ASX200 will test at least the 7700 level over the coming weeks; hence, we will likely be patient before putting our slightly higher cash levels back to work.
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid penultimate week of March, taking solace from the FOMC’s read on interest rates with the Materials, Real Estate and Financials leading the advance, whereas weakness in the Consumer Staples and Utilities Sectors illustrated it was another week of “risk on” for stocks. In line with global equities, especially the European stocks, our preferred scenario is to see a test of the 7900-8000 region over the coming weeks. Still, we are conscious that the seasonally weak “sell in May & go away” period is approaching fast.
US indices enjoyed a strong session overall as they awaited news from the Fed's two-day FOMC meeting, which commenced overnight. Nvidia (NVDA US) was the focus of much attention following their first GTC conference, although the stock itself was relatively quiet, i.e. the global artificial intelligence conference might become the new go-to for live events, replacing Apple Inc (AAPL US) and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire’s eagerly awaited presentations.
MM is cautiously bullish towards the Nikkei around 65,000
MM is cautiously bullish towards the Nikkei around 66,000
MM is cautiously bullish towards the Nikkei around 66,000
MM is bullish towards the Nikkei ~50,000
MM is neutral towards the Nikkei around 54,000
MM is neutral towards the Nikkei short-term
MM is bullish towards the Nikkei short term
MM is cautiously bullish towards Japanese equities
MM is neutral towards the Nikkei ~45,000
MM is bullish towards Japanese equities through 2025
BEIJING CAPITAL GRAND LIMITED is a China-base integrated operator of commercial property. The Company is principally engaged in the development of outlets-backed integrated property and investment holding business. In addition, The Company is also engaged in property investment business, which includes land use rights and buildings that are held for the purpose of leasing as well as buildings that are being constructed or developed for the purpose of leasing in the future. The Company operates in the domestic market.
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