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Yesterday felt like “15-love” to bond yields as the ASX200 was clobbered 76-points following a bad session on Wall Street which was then compounded by further weakness in the S&P500 futures during our day session. However 25% of stocks did still manage to close up on Wednesday with the gains feeling far more stock specific as opposed to…
Friday delivered more of the same, with the ASX unable to hold Thursday's recovery as a fresh wave of selling hit the materials sector. The culprit this time wasn't just the Middle East - China's state-backed iron ore buyer CMRG effectively banned traders from purchasing new BHP cargoes, sending the Big Australian down sharply and dragging the broader resources complex with it. It was a messy session to end a soft week, though there were some genuine bright spots. Tech continued its strong bounce and MFG added further gains as the Lowy Family's cornerstone stake gave the Barrenjoey merger story more legs.
The ASX 200 limped to a +0.1% gain on Thursday, although some heavyweight names traded ex-dividend, including Woodside (WDS), QBE Insurance (QBE), RIO Tinto (RIO), South32 (S32), and BHP Group (BHP, taking roughly 30-points off the index. It was another very polarised affair on the stock/sector front, with plenty of reversion unfolding since Monday's panic sell-off - we’ve seen profit taking in the high-flying miners while bargain hunters have emerged in the battered tech space. Despite the uptick, the ASX200 is still down 2.8% from Monday's recent record high and oil prices have continued higher after Iran denied rumours its officials had sought de-escalation via diplomatic backchannels and on reports of fresh Iranian air strikes on Israel.
The ASX bounced back from Wednesday's shellacking, with bargain hunters returning early as strong US economic data overnight kept rate cut hopes alive and reports - later denied - that Iran had approached the US to resolve the conflict briefly lifted sentiment. The index traded as high as 8964 this morning before fading into the close, with BHP and Woodside both trading ex-dividend adding some mechanical drag. All things considered, a solid recovery given the noise still swirling around the Middle East - the bears didn't get the follow-through they were looking for today.
Hedge funds have shifted their short positions away from ASX resource names that benefited from the recent commodities boom, targeting consumer-facing stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, Domino’s Pizza and Guzman y Gomez amid concerns around weakening household spending. Just six months ago, five of the six most shorted stocks on the ASX were resource plays, including uranium names Boss Energy and Paladin Energy, alongside lithium producers Pilbara Minerals, Liontown Resources and Mineral Resources. Today, traders have pivoted, with Domino’s Pizza now the most heavily shorted stock on the ASX, while Treasury Wine Estates and Guzman y Gomez also feature among the top five most shorted names.
The ASX was sharply lower today with the two heavy weight sectors in Resources & Banks copping most selling which created a big impact on the index. BHP alone took ~30 pts from the ASX 200 and the big 4 banks accounted for another ~40pts. It wasn’t all bad news though, Energy did okay and some tech names had a better session as it looks like some selling pressure is drying up, perhaps a rotation from resources back into tech on global growth fears…
The ASX200 haemorrhaged on Tuesday, closing down 123-points or 1.3%, as weak US futures, and a cautious Michelle Bullock broke the market's stubborn resistance - the local 3-year yield surged 0.15% during our day session following the RBA chiefs’ hawkish comments. We discussed the drop in bonds (yields higher) yesterday afternoon - Here. The move in bonds weighed on rate-sensitive stocks/sector, with the consumer discretionary, real estate and tech sectors all underperforming the main board, and closing down by more than 2% - more of the same is likely this morning after bonds fell further overnight, although they did bounce into the close. However, losses were broad-based on Tuesday, with almost 75% of the market closing down on the day.
The ASX was hit today, unwinding yesterday’s strong recovery from the lows, with commentary from RBA Chair Michelle Bullock at an AFR event dovetailing into higher oil prices driving a sharp increase in local bond yields on firming rate hike expectations at the next meeting.
The ASX200 was firm on Monday, shrugging off the conflict in the Middle East to close marginally higher, trading and closing above 9200 for the first time - not a good day for the bears! The index clawed back early losses as heavyweight miners rebounded from initial weakness to push firmly into positive territory. BHP led from the front, rallying over $2 from its early low to end the session up +1.4% at another all-time high, adding 14-points to the index on its own. By the close, the Materials and Energy Sector combined to add 67-points to the main board, offsetting the 55-point negative contribution from the financials as the story remained the same on the performance front.
The ASX was hit early on the Iran conflict, down ~1% before recovering as the day progressed to finish a couple of points higher – not a great day for the bears who sold early. US Futures were trading down 1% at the outset, and while they recovered ~0.20% throughout the session, the resilience by the ASX was impressive, underpinned by Gold, Energy & defensives.
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