What Matters Today: How far can equities rally with a new look dovish Fed?

This week’s recent dovish tilt by the Fed has made us tweak our already bullish outlook higher; now, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the ASX200 make new all-time highs in 1Q of 2024 – Never say never! Ever since the GFC over 15 years ago, the ASX200 has been trending upwards with a few 15-20% corrections along the journey. Interest rates have been the main driver of valuations and sentiment during this time. We see no reason for this to change, i.e. stocks are in a sweet spot after the Fed’s comments on Wednesday night, but as the previous German Bund chart illustrated, we are already well into the pullback in yields MM has been flagging over the last few months.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 25/07/2025 17:05

The Match Out: Stocks end the week lower; Resources join Banks in the sell-off

The ASX put in a weaker session seeing sustained selling through the day, as softer iron ore prices weighed on the materials space. With heavyweight resources and the big banks down, the index was fighting a losing battle from start to finish, though we still managed to close higher for the week.

Alerts 25/07/2025 09:54

Trade Alert – Growth & Emerging Companies Portfolio

MM is adding to an existing position

Morning report 25/07/2025 09:47

ETF Friday: Is it too late to buy three “off the beaten track” Top Performing ETFs?

The ASX 200 keeps teasing us with a significant breakout on the upside before gains are tempered by macro &/or geopolitical news. On Thursday, it was the RBA with Michele Bullock delivering a less dovish speech than hoped by many, warning that underlying inflation may not fall as quickly as anticipated, signalling that an interest rate cut next month is not guaranteed - futures markets are still pricing it as a certainty, with a 40% chance of a third before Christmas.

Afternoon report 24/07/2025 17:29

The Match Out: ASX loses steam, Macquarie (MQG) underwhelms

A softer session across the ASX today despite the positive session in the US overnight, and US Futures remained solid during our time zone, inline with other Asian markets bar our own. We were a bit of an anomaly today.

Morning report 24/07/2025 09:38

What Matters Today: Will the recovery by US homebuilders flow into the ASX?

The ASX200 rallied +0.7% on Wednesday, closing back above 8700 and within 0.4% of its all-time high. Buying was broad-based, with over 70% of the index closing higher. Although Paladin (PDN) and Telix Pharma (TLX) delivered a couple of negative surprises, bullish sentiment continued to prevail with all of the big names from banks to resources advancing.

Afternoon report 23/07/2025 17:43

The Match Out: Banks bounce, Resources run as ASX moves up

The index climbed steadily higher throughout the day with the resources rally continuing and banks rebounding after two days of moving in opposite directions. With CBA closing ~10% off its recent highs yesterday, it was a matter of time until buyers returned, though ANZ was the pick of the bunch in the Big Four.

Income Report: Asset allocation framework when targeting income

Morning report 23/07/2025 10:37

Portfolio Positioning: Iron Ore for growth & yield as it tops $US100

The ASX200 struggled to close up +0.1% on Tuesday, with over 40% of the main board closing lower, and notable weakness in the influential banking sector.

Afternoon report 22/07/2025 17:04

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, Resources & Healthcare lead

While it was quiet session from an index perspective, we saw further sector rotation sweep through the ASX with Materials outperforming Financials by ~4%, and if we look at the last 5 trading sessions, that divergence extends to ~7%. Resources are running as the market consolidates its recent breakout above 8600.

Morning report 22/07/2025 11:08

What Matters Today: Should we follow Warren Buffett out of the banks?

The ASX200 closed down more than 1% on Monday, enduring its worst drop in three months. The last two trading days have seen similar see-saw action to a pair of days in early April, hopefully it's not a precursor of the volatility ahead!

Afternoon report 21/07/2025 17:06

The Match Out: Banks drag ASX lower, Miners remain well bid

We’ve written about sector rotation a lot in recent notes and today was another clear example of the theme playing out, with banks underperforming resources by a significant ~2.5%. News that Warren Buffett was selling down bank holdings was sighted as a catalyst, and it probably played a part.