15/03/2024 09:15

Do we like Macquarie’s sell call on the banks?

Yesterday, Macquarie came out with a rare call that it’s time to sell the “Big Four Banks,” and they’ve also advised clients to be underweight in everything! The crux of their view is that the current high valuation of the Australian banks isn’t justified by the fundamentals. They even doubled down on Westpac (WBC), moving from outperform to underperform; by definition, they must think their own shares are a sell. Last week, the banks hit multi-year highs, led by Commonwealth Bank (CBA), which posted all-time highs; hence, it's not hard to comprehend some kneejerk profit-taking.

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15/12/2023 09:38

The Banks

The banks have been quiet in 2023, with ANZ and CBA higher while NAB and WBC are currently lower, but they have paid healthy dividends along the way, and the underlying ASX200 (excluding dividends) is only up +4.8% with a few weeks remaining.

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10/08/2023 09:09

First Up

The banks returned to form with a bang on Wednesday following CBA’s solid FY23 result with margins holding up extremely well despite the much-discussed increased competition. While the result may not have been outstanding there was nothing not to like from margins to dividends and even a surprise $1bn buyback which illustrates their strong capital position and confidence by the board.

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30/06/2023 09:12

Global Markets

US stocks closed mixed overnight with the S&P500 rallying +0.45% while the tech-based NASDAQ slipped -0.16% following the strong economic data which appears to give the Fed more room to hike rates if and when required.

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16/05/2023 09:12

Global Markets

US stocks edged higher overnight led by the Tech Sector, software business NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) closed up +2.2% contributing the most number of points to the S&P500 in the process. The AFR described the market as being in a state of flux and this has felt on point of late, our preferred scenario is still the S&P500 makes fresh highs back above 4200 but failure into such strength wouldn’t surprise MM and we remain very open-minded as to what comes next.

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13/03/2023 09:13

First Up

After numerous months of hanging on every word/innuendo from the Fed, RBA, BOE, et al we have a new gorilla in the room i.e. the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB US), the 2nd largest bank to collapse in the US history. The wheels started to fall off last Wednesday when the company surprised the market by announcing it needed to raise $US2.2bn to shore up its balance sheet, the rest is already history as we witnessed a hysteria-induced run on the bank largely blamed on Venture Capitalists, customers withdrew a staggering $US42bn by the close of business on Thursday.

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10/03/2023 09:19

Global Markets

US stocks experienced a bad session overnight however it was actually weaker data and signs of a few issues bubbling below the surface amongst the financial stocks that were the catalyst. The Dow closed down over 500 points with regional banks weighing on indices as sentiment followed through from SVB Financial (SIVB US) the S&P’s worst-performing stock after the crypto bank shares plunged over 50% on news it’s in financial peril – the cryptos keep on delivering!

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29/04/2021 12:04

Global Macro ETF Portfolio – Amendments

MM is making some changes in the Global Macro ETF Portfolio. Selling BNKS, and buying DBA US, VXX US & BBUS.

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21/04/2021 09:34

BetaShares Global Banks ETF (BNKS) $6.50

MM has maintained confidence in the banks for the last 18-months through not locking in a loss during the pandemic plunge by stocks. However in line with our view on yields and risk in general its feeling like time to pull up stumps, at least for now.

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15/04/2021 09:20

Defensive stocks are looking interesting

MM is a long term buyer and believer in equities but as active investors we are comfortable at times moving aggressively overweight both individual stocks, sectors and cash itself.

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