What Matters Today: Has the Fed killed off the bull market in Tech?

Tech stocks traditionally don’t like rising interest rates, although, as the chart below illustrates, it’s not a perfect science. Over the last 12 months, the sector has roared ahead as a number of the mega-caps showed they could deliver earnings in a tough economic backdrop. Plus, they’ve been anticipating “peak interest rates”, but the Fed’s recent hawkish commentary has raised questions about the timing of this view into Christmas and beyond.

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Afternoon report 04/12/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX higher as Copper hits new milestone

The ASX edged higher on Thursday, with record-breaking copper prices doing the heavy lifting as interest-rate-sensitive sectors sagged under rising bond yields. Bond markets have now priced out any chance of an RBA rate cut this cycle, and traders are assigning a 15% probability of a rate hike as early as February. Strong household spending data for October, the biggest jump in two years added weight to the RBA’s concern that inflation remains too sticky.

Morning report 04/12/2025 09:45

What Matters Today: Investing for the Hacking vs Cybersecurity arm wrestle

The ASX200 advanced +0.2% on Wednesday, with the utilities and energy sectors leading the market higher, even though more stocks on the main bourse ended the day in the red. On the stock level, gains were mixed, but another strong session by BHP added almost 50% of the day's gain on its own. MM remains bullish towards miners, believing they will continue to outperform the broad market as they have over the last 6-months, although we do believe several of the large tech names are close to a sharp bounce, especially if/when rate hike fears fade.

Afternoon report 04/12/2025 09:47

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, WiseTech rallies on strategy day

A good day to have the Market Matters Christmas lunch, with a very quiet session playing out across the board. The ASX inched higher by the close as softer-than-expected GDP data briefly rekindled hopes the RBA might not need to tighten rates in 2026.

Morning report 03/12/2025 10:47

Portfolio Positioning: Four stocks down 40%, MM likes for a rebound in 2026

The ASX200 tried and failed to close above 8600 on Tuesday, with mining and energy stocks again supporting a nervous index. However, ongoing weakness in the rate-sensitive stocks saw the tech -1.6%, utilities -0.4%, and consumer discretionary -0.3% sectors all retreat as bets increased that the RBA will hike rates through 2026 - traders are now pricing in a ~70% chance that Michele Bullock & Co move +0.25% by next Christmas.

Afternoon report 02/12/2025 16:44

The Match Out: ASX steadies with a ‘quiet’ session

The ASX steadied, clawing back a portion of yesterday’s disrupted session as strength in energy and the big miners helped offset weak sentiment in certain pockets.

Morning report 02/12/2025 10:03

What Matters Today: Is Metcash ringing alarm bells for the Supermarkets?

The ASX 200 opened firmer on Monday, but bank-led selling aided by softer US futures reversed early gains, with the index finishing 0.6% lower. The Australian Stock Exchange suffered another embarrassing episode, potentially adding to the intra-day selling that saw almost 70% of the main board closing in negative territory at the final bell.

Afternoon report 01/12/2025 16:36

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower as the ASX deals with another bungle

Morning report 03/12/2025 16:55

Macro Monday: The RBA weighs on the ASX compared to its peers

The expected policy path of central banks, especially the RBA and the Fed, has been the main driver of the ASX’s relative performance in recent weeks. The chart below of US and Australian short-dated bond yields illustrates the divergence that weighed on local risk assets - Australian 3-year bond yields increased ~0.5% from their recent lows while the US 2s edged down towards fresh multi-year lows.

Weekend report 29/11/2025 09:05

Weekend Q&A: Rate cut optimism in the US drives stocks higher

The ASX 200 bounced back +2.4% last week following dovish comments from several Fed members. Gains were broad-based, with tech, materials, healthcare, and the industrial sectors all advancing by over 4%; only the Energy sector failed to advance. This week's rise on the ASX came despite Wednesday's higher-than-expected local inflation figures, which prompted speculation from some that the RBA may hike interest rates next year. Even so, the future path of Australian interest rates remains debated, and some market economists maintain the RBA could still cut rates from today's level of 3.6% - MM believes there will be no change, just plenty of speculation until 2027.

Afternoon report 28/11/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX firms in quiet session, posts best weekly gain in 2025 up +2.35%

The ASX closed the week on a steady footing, showing resilience despite a lack of direction from offshore markets, with the US closed last night for Thanksgiving, and only a shortened Black Friday session tonight. With no meaningful lead from Wall Street and limited local corporate news flow, the local market leaned on strength in tech, defensives and gold, helping offset weakness across financials and insurers.