What Matters Today: Does Gold still stack up as it tests $US2,600?

Many subscribers may be surprised to learn that gold outperformed US stocks in 2024. In US dollars, year-to-date, gold has surged +25% while the S&P500 is up +18%—not too shabby by either! The prospect of declining interest rates has been a major driving force for both markets, with gold also enjoying strong buying out of China as the Yuan and property prices fell. However, markets never go up in straight lines forever, and we are conscious that “a rest” could be constructive for gold moving into 2025, i.e. similar to the pullback in mid-2023.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 07/07/2025 16:43

The Match Out: ASX subdued ahead of a big week, with RBA decision & Tariff deadlines

No trade in the US on Friday night (Independence Day), so a quiet session to kick things off locally ahead of some key data points this week. The RBA should cut rates tomorrow which would be their first back-to-back move in 6-years, while we await the tariff deadline in the U.S on Wednesday night.

Morning report 07/07/2025 09:22

Macro Monday: Can this week’s tariff deadline rein in the “unloved” bull market?

Donald Trump’s second presidency has been volatile, and it's still less than six months since his inauguration. When Congress approved Trump’s budget mega bill on Thursday, it was the latest of the milestones for the president as he follows through on his unconventional election promises.

Weekend report 05/07/2025 09:44

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 closes above 8600 for the first time

The ASX200 advanced another 1% last week, closing above the psychological 8600 level for the first time. The healthcare, real estate, and materials sectors all closed up around 3%, while the financial sector was the weakest over the five days, closing down 0.7%. For the market to extend the recent gains, it will need to shrug off high valuations and lack of earnings growth, although, as we saw last week, the resources stocks can do some of the heavy lifting after experiencing a tough 18 months.

Afternoon report 04/07/2025 17:03

The Match Out: ASX up ~1% for FY26, Resources find some love

A quiet end to a solid week for stocks, chalking up a positive move to kick off FY26. The FY25 trend of buying certainty at any price has taken a (slight) knock, with sectors and stocks representing better value attracting more flows this week.

Morning report 04/07/2025 09:19

ETF Friday: Using ETFs to ride the resources rally

The ASX 200 finished unchanged on Thursday, but on the stock level, it was a very different story, with the materials sector surging over 3% while 8 of the mainboard 11 sectors retreated, including the financials, which fell 1.3%, a very different story to the last 18 months.

Afternoon report 03/07/2025 17:05

The March Out: ASX flat, though plenty of fireworks under the hood

The sector/stock divergence that we’ve been highlighting recently stepped up a notch today as BHP outperformed CBA by more than 7% while there was some big moves in some of the beaten down commodities in particular following positive trends overseas.

Alerts 03/07/2025 10:01

Trade Alerts – Income Portfolio

We are making several changes to the Income Portfolio today

Morning report 03/07/2025 09:37

What Matters Today: Fund managers start to fire as the ASX tests all-time highs

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday, briefly taking the market back above 8600 before drifting back slightly into the close. The miners led the gains from a points perspective, with the materials sector contributing almost 50% of the day's gain, led by BHP, which delivered 18% of the advance on its own. However, from a sheer performance perspective, the fund managers dominated the winners' enclosure, taking out the top 3 spots - more on these guys later.

Afternoon report 02/07/2025 16:59

The Match Out: ASX knocks on all-time high, Domino’s dusted!

Some volatility on the stock level hit today, with Dominos whacked as the new CEO resigns, Helius lost another big customer and fell ~20% while UBS scattered a couple of Tom Thumbs in the wealth/funds management sector, taking a more favorable stance – a topic we’ll look at tomorrow morning. By the close, the market was back testing 8600, some 80 points above the midday low, and the bullish vibe has now hit July!

Alerts 02/07/2025 15:25