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The ASX 200 performed well on Wednesday, considering US NASDAQ Futures were down over 2% by 4pm AEST, courtesy of poor news from both sides of the Atlantic before the respective bourses even opened. Global Tech stocks sank on a one-two of bad news for tech goliaths Nvidia and ASML, the last thing the embattled semiconductor sector needed.
The bulls came to play today with the ASX having a great session, but more interestingly, the higher beta parts of the market like BNPL, Uranium , Lithium all attracted solid buying, but it wasn't at the expense of the much loved ‘certainty’ trade which remained well bid, implying new money is starting to gravitate back into the market. Weak GDP data released at 11.30am should underpin a more aggressive stance towards rate cuts from the RBA, and as a long as things cool rather than crater, lower rates should see stocks trade higher.
The ASX200 advanced +0.6%, closing less than 2% below its February all-time high. The market held onto early Wall Street-inspired gains after the US extended its pause on some Chinese tariffs to August 31, providing a tailwind for risk-on sentiment in the region. However, iron ore and base metal stocks struggled after China’s PMI (manufacturing activity) slipped to its lowest since 2022.
A solid day for the ASX hitting new 3-month highs buoyed by strength across the financial sector with an average gain across the big 4 banks of 1%, while gold stocks rallied as bullion tested ~$US3400/oz overnight
The ASX200 started June on the back foot, slipping 0.2%. Overall, this was not a bad performance, considering that further geopolitical uncertainty rattled global markets after a few quiet weeks; the S&P 500 futures were down ~0.5% during our trading session.
Someone seems to have told Trump about the TACO term (Trump Always Chickens Out) which has gotten him firing again with higher tariffs on Steel imports and accusations that China is not holding up its end of the bargain, reducing tariffs while negotiations take place.
Yet again, the “sell in May & go away” catchphrase played out as the myth that the statistics foretold. Although the stellar 3.8% gain was the second-best of the last decade. The most critical point when it comes to considering the seasonality of the ASX200 is to “Keep it Simple, Stupid” (KISS) with our favourite three factors looking forward towards Christmas.
The ASX 200 rallied on the final trading day of May, closing up +0.3% for the session, leaving the index just ~2% below its all-time high. Overall, an excellent performance by the Australian bourse, advancing +3.8% for the month, shrugging off the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and rising long-dated bond yields. However, a more dovish than expected RBA, a strong banking sector, suspicions of overseas buying, and a market caught underweight stocks after their dramatic “V-shaped” recovery from Trump's “Liberation Day” was enough to drive the local market back towards the 8600 area. With pullbacks well supported in one of the most hated bullish advances that we can recall, it makes for a compelling argument that new highs are just around the corner.
The final trading day of the month carried the ASX to a 3.8% gain over the period and now within ~200pts of all-time highs with investors brushing off tariff risk and shifting focus back to fundamentals.
The ASX 200 closed marginally higher on Thursday, and as we enter the last trading day of May, the index is up +3.5% with only the utilities sector dragging the chain. Although it's been a stellar month, yesterday's performance was a touch disappointing considering the global tailwinds.
The local market edged higher today after opening mildly weaker, lifted by strength in energy and tech stocks. A strong result from Nvidia pre-market sparked bullish sentiment toward AI enabling a +1.9% jump in NASDAQ futures, while the U.S Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump-imposed tariffs, fuelling ~30pt lift on the ASX mid-morning.
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