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The Greenback has tumbled to fresh 15-month lows this week as a Fed pivot appears extremely close at hand, in our opinion the move has been exacerbated by the defensive positioning of many investors who sought the safety of the $US during the recent macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The correlation between US bond yields and the $US is not surprisingly strong with much lower levels on the agenda if we do indeed see US 2-year bond yields back under 4%.
Fireworks on the ASX today with choppy trade early before softer than expected employment data lit the fuse and fuelled expectations of an RBA rate cut next month, propelling the index to an intraday high of 9109 and finishing firmly above the previous high close of 9019 set back in August.
The ASX 200 climbed back toward the 9,000 mark on Wednesday, with strength across the banks and miners lifting the market to a second straight day of gains, with gold notching yet another record high.
The ASX rallied to finish near the 9000 level and within reach of all-time highs - the majority of gains driven by the major banks and miners as upbeat sentiment from a strong start to the U.S. earnings season spilled over into the local market. The Big Four led the charge on renewed optimism around credit growth, while gold miners benefited from another surge in bullion prices.
The ASX200 experienced a choppy Tuesday before ultimately closing up +0.2% courtesy of another stellar session by the resources, with the materials sector +2.3% and energy sector +1.4% dragging a begrudging market higher.
The ASX flipped between gains and losses through Tuesday and sat mildly higher near 8900 at the close. Risk appetite improved on signs Washington and Beijing will keep talking, a cooler Middle East backdrop and a flow on more positive updates from Aussie corporates, with several positive, growth orientated deals announced.
The ASX 200 opened lower as expected on Monday, but failed to capitalise on a steady advance in U.S. futures, with nearly half of the session’s losses occurring in the afternoon even as the S&P pushed higher.
The ASX tracked weakness in overseas markets, though we started the day better off, with US Futures recovering from the get-go, finding solace from DJT’s more conciliatory comments towards China.
The game of chicken is back on between the US and China, just in time to deliver some seasonal October volatility. Chinese President Xi Jinping has drawn a clear red line in a bid to stem new US export controls, threatening to reignite a tit-for-tat trade spiral with Donald Trump just weeks before a planned meeting between the leaders of the world’s biggest economies.
The ASX200 ended the week mildly softer, with tech and consumer discretionary stocks dragging the index down 0.3%. While the index treads water on the stock & sector level, the local market is getting more interesting with a strong performance by the miners almost offsetting broad-based weakness, with 5 of the main 11 sectors retreating between 1.4% and 2.4%.
By Friday's close, the winners' enclosures contained an eclectic mix, with the material sector dominant in the positive contributors while the tech names were noticeable on the other side of the ledger:
The ASX closed lower for the week, with today’s session capped by a risk-off tone as peace headlines out of Gaza knocked the shine off oil and gold, while iron ore heavyweights fell on renewed pricing tensions with China.
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