Macro Monday: Should the Fed's 0.5% rate cuts carry a health warning?

Freight costs are already in a recession, and truckers who bought their rigs back in 2022, when shipping rates were high, are struggling to get enough work to pay for them today after prices plunged. Over the last 20 years, it is not a good sign for manufacturing jobs to have trucking rates falling. We may have solid GDP in the U.S., but every other time, the Cass Linehaul Index rate of change has gone negative; it has brought falling GDP at some point as part of the cycle. Hence, it would be unusual for the U.S. to escape a technical, economic recession this time, with trucking already in one.

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Weekend report 07/06/2025 09:41

Weekend Q&A: Enjoy the long weekend and bull market!

Even after slipping 0.3% on Friday, the ASX200 advanced 1.0% for the week, closing just 100 points/1.2% below February's all-time high. Overall, it was a relatively quiet week as traders eyed the long weekend as an excuse to pull up stumps early, compounded by the uncertainty of Friday night's May Payrolls numbers (jobs data) - in hindsight, there was nothing to worry about there! Although it felt quiet, it was the market's largest one-week gain since mid-May, with the ASX200 now advancing for four consecutive weeks and set to start the fifth positively. As we approach the EOFY, it's hard to imagine following all of the Trump concerns that the ASX200 is up +9.6% for the FY, yet another example of how equities deliver over time:

Afternoon report 06/06/2025 17:49

The Match Out: ASX drifts lower into long weekend ahead of U.S labour data

A softer session played out on the ASX today opening ~10pts up though never looked like moving higher with sellers chipping away as the index drifted down steadily through the day, closing at its lows ahead of key employment data in the U.S tonight.

Morning report 06/06/2025 10:39

What Matters Today: ETF Friday focuses on Yield as the RBA is forecast to cut again in July

The ASX 200 closed marginally lower on Thursday, surrendering early gains in a fairly lacklustre session, which at one stage was only ~0.6% from its February all-time high. The healthcare sector was the weakest on the day, with heavyweight CSL contributing the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%. There was some rare reversion on the stock/sector level, with gold names struggling while lithium names popped higher, not the normal EOFY tax loss selling shenanigans you would expect as we commence June:

Afternoon report 05/06/2025 16:39

The Match Out: Lithium stocks rally in an otherwise quiet session

A quiet day at the index level with the market closing flat, early strength was sold into, however, there was some reasonable moves in some stocks particularly in the resources space headlined by Lithium.

Morning report 05/06/2025 09:49

What Matters Today: Is it time to chase yield with three rate-cuts by Christmas?

Wednesday saw the ASX 200 rally to within 1% of its all-time trading high on broad-based buying, with over 70% of the main board advancing, including the all-important banks and large-cap miners; the path of least resistance remains on the upside.

Afternoon report 04/06/2025 17:52

The Match Out: ASX knocks on the door of all-time highs again

The bulls came to play today with the ASX having a great session, but more interestingly, the higher beta parts of the market like BNPL, Uranium , Lithium all attracted solid buying, but it wasn't at the expense of the much loved ‘certainty’ trade which remained well bid, implying new money is starting to gravitate back into the market. Weak GDP data released at 11.30am should underpin a more aggressive stance towards rate cuts from the RBA, and as a long as things cool rather than crater, lower rates should see stocks trade higher.

Morning report 04/06/2025 09:32

Portfolio Positioning: The unloved Bull Market keeps pushing ever higher

The ASX200 advanced +0.6%, closing less than 2% below its February all-time high. The market held onto early Wall Street-inspired gains after the US extended its pause on some Chinese tariffs to August 31, providing a tailwind for risk-on sentiment in the region. However, iron ore and base metal stocks struggled after China’s PMI (manufacturing activity) slipped to its lowest since 2022.

Afternoon report 03/06/2025 17:01

The Match Out: Financials & Gold drive ASX to new 3-month highs

A solid day for the ASX hitting new 3-month highs buoyed by strength across the financial sector with an average gain across the big 4 banks of 1%, while gold stocks rallied as bullion tested ~$US3400/oz overnight

Morning report 03/06/2025 09:30

What Matters Today: As Gold Shines and Copper Climbs, is it time to revisit Lithium?

The ASX200 started June on the back foot, slipping 0.2%. Overall, this was not a bad performance, considering that further geopolitical uncertainty rattled global markets after a few quiet weeks; the S&P 500 futures were down ~0.5% during our trading session.

Afternoon report 02/06/2025 17:13

The Match Out: Commodities weigh on ASX as Trump restarts the tariff engine

Someone seems to have told Trump about the TACO term (Trump Always Chickens Out) which has gotten him firing again with higher tariffs on Steel imports and accusations that China is not holding up its end of the bargain, reducing tariffs while negotiations take place.