New Hope (NHC) is primarily a thermal coal producer. Its two QLD operating mines both produce thermal coal for export and domestic power generation. The miner has been one of the ASX’s standout performers in 2026, rallying ~49% YTD from ~$4 as stronger thermal coal prices, solid operational delivery and improving broker sentiment drove a significant re-rating.
The stock initially broke higher through February and March as supply disruptions supported Newcastle coal prices, while the extension of NHC’s share buyback and a series of broker upgrades added momentum. After trading above $6 in June, the shares corrected ~20% through July as coal prices softened and the market became more cautious.
The recovery gathered pace again in August following a strong 4Q update, with saleable production reaching 3.06Mt and quarterly underlying EBITDA of A$169.3 million, the strongest of FY26 and taking full-year EBITDA to A$514.3 million. Higher coal prices, partly driven by Middle East-related supply concerns, have improved realised pricing, while strong production and the ongoing buyback continue to support the investment case. Importantly, NHC’s strong performance has primarily reflected stronger commodity prices, improving cash generation and operational execution rather than simply a broker-led re-rating.
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New Hope Crp (NHC) Realised Coal Price (A$/MT) v EBITDA – Source: Bloomberg
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New Hope Crp (NHC) Realised Coal Price (A$/MT) v EBITDA – Source: Bloomberg
Not surprisingly NHC is also highly leveraged to the coal price, although in this case it’s thermal coal. Encouragingly NHC is already testing its 2026 June high while the coal price is well below its equivalent levels – as we say often say don’t fight the tape, the stock looks good:
- We can see NHC initially testing $6.50, or ~10% higher, in the coming months: MM owns NHC in its Income Portfolio.
MM is long and bullish NHC around $6.05
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