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Goodman Group (GMG) 33.89

GMG caught our attention on Monday as it closed lower in a firm session, a rare occurrence so far in 2024, where GMG has surged over +33%, making it the best-performing stock in the sector. This is a great company, but we feel there are short-term risks on the downside for a few simple reasons:

  • GMG’s recent result was great, though guidance for FY25  was below market expectations. That is a usual occurrence, with GMG typically under-promising and over-delivering.
  • We believe that GMG is a “crowded trade”, which could easily see the stock unwind ~10% from current levels.
  • GMG remains “rich”  from a valuation perspective, which is not ideal considering the above two points.

However, the post-results call with Greg Goodman swayed our current view and stance towards GMG, we felt he was trying to allay analyst bullishness on upgrades this year, which supports our short-term cautious stance.

  • We remain keen buyers of GMG around $30, which is not out of the question in today’s volatile market.
GMG
MM likes GMG around $30
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Goodman Group (GMG)
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