Market Matters Weekend Report – fund managers make sheep look like independent thinkers!

The ASX200 had a very quiet 2nd week of December finally closing up just +0.1% after posting fresh 10-month highs on Wednesday. Although the market has rallied strongly for an impressive six consecutive weeks it feels a little tired, it’s amazing how often the much-publicised seasonality influences are almost self-fulfilling – “fund managers make sheep look like independent thinkers”, a gem of a saying from Joe Bo who sits on our institutional desk at work and has a strong arsenal of one liners. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the local index correct a few percent next week, perhaps on lessening optimism around the COVID vaccines, but MM remains bullish and will consider increasing risk into any pullback – at least this side of Christmas. The “Santa Claus Rally” theoretically should start sometime next week and while 2020 has most definitely not been a normal year its already getting close to now or never for this seasonal bullish phenomenon.

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Morning report 01/12/2025 09:38

Macro Monday: The RBA weighs on the ASX compared to its peers

The expected policy path of central banks, especially the RBA and the Fed, has been the main driver of the ASX’s relative performance in recent weeks. The chart below of US and Australian short-dated bond yields illustrates the divergence that weighed on local risk assets - Australian 3-year bond yields increased ~0.5% from their recent lows while the US 2s edged down towards fresh multi-year lows.

Weekend report 29/11/2025 09:05

Weekend Q&A: Rate cut optimism in the US drives stocks higher

The ASX 200 bounced back +2.4% last week following dovish comments from several Fed members. Gains were broad-based, with tech, materials, healthcare, and the industrial sectors all advancing by over 4%; only the Energy sector failed to advance. This week's rise on the ASX came despite Wednesday's higher-than-expected local inflation figures, which prompted speculation from some that the RBA may hike interest rates next year. Even so, the future path of Australian interest rates remains debated, and some market economists maintain the RBA could still cut rates from today's level of 3.6% - MM believes there will be no change, just plenty of speculation until 2027.

Afternoon report 28/11/2025 17:12

The Match Out: ASX firms in quiet session, posts best weekly gain in 2025 up +2.35%

The ASX closed the week on a steady footing, showing resilience despite a lack of direction from offshore markets, with the US closed last night for Thanksgiving, and only a shortened Black Friday session tonight. With no meaningful lead from Wall Street and limited local corporate news flow, the local market leaned on strength in tech, defensives and gold, helping offset weakness across financials and insurers.

Morning report 28/11/2025 09:17

ETF Friday: Looking at Four “new age” ETFs

The ASX 200 drifted lower yesterday afternoon, surrendering most of the day's early gains to close up just +0.1%. The winners and losers arm wrestle was a close affair, but the bulls eventually triumphed, marking the index's longest daily winning streak since May, as renewed strength in the tech sector and the growing probability of a December interest rate cut from the US Fed put investors in a buying mood the day before Thanksgiving holiday, albeit tentatively.

Afternoon report 27/11/2025 17:06

The Match Out: ASX notches 4th straight win, but loses some steam

The ASX couldn’t hold early gains, with weakness in the oil names overpowering a solid tech-led rally. By the close, the ASX 200 was up just +10pts, despite nine sectors trading higher.

Morning report 27/11/2025 10:02

What Matters Today: The music’s on full blast at the M&A party – who could be next?

The ASX200 advanced +0.8% on Wednesday, although another hot CPI reading took the edge off the strong performance. Well over 70% of the main board closed higher, with the miners again the shining light while the banks reversed early gains with two closing lower as the influential sector struggles in the face of no further rate cuts by the RBA.

Afternoon report 26/11/2025 16:37

The Match Out: Hotter inflation cools rate cut hopes, ASX up, but well-off highs, National Storage (NSR) receives bid

A hotter-than-expected inflation print has poured some cold water on what was shaping up as a very strong rebound for the ASX today. The market opened firmly, riding a strong lead from Wall Street and growing conviction around a December cut from the US Fed — but local data somewhat changed the tone.

Morning report 26/11/2025 09:53

Portfolio Positioning: Equities are getting a Thanksgiving lift

The ASX200 limped into the close on Tuesday finishing the day up +0.1%, after spending most of the day swinging between positive and negative territory. A sell-off in the banking sector all but wiped-out the markets initial gain with a ~7% plunge by Bendigo Bank leading the decline.

Alerts 26/11/2025 09:52

Trade Alerts – Emerging Companies Portfolio

We are making several changes to the Emerging Companies Portfolio

Afternoon report 25/11/2025 17:18

The Match Out: Strength in Materials & IT offset weak Banks – ASX mildly higher

The ASX ended the session broadly unchanged, with gains in miners, gold stocks and select tech names offset by heavy selling across the major banks. There was limited activity at the index level ahead of tomorrow’s first full monthly CPI release, expected to show a lift in inflation. Tech names benefited from renewed optimism around potential US rate cuts, though the weight of financials capped any meaningful momentum into the close.