HomeReportsMacro Monday: Bond yields weigh on US stocks as the…
From the US to Japan, long-term borrowing costs for the world’s biggest economies are surging as investors question governments’ ability to cover massive budget deficits.
A classic risk-on day for local equities, with investors embracing the dual engine of bank strength and a relentless gold bid. Materials were the clear standout, but the breadth of today’s rally was also impressive, with most sectors participating as the new quarter seemed to attract new $$. Healthcare has been the real index laggard in recent periods but today saw an obvious change of trend with CSL having the biggest influence from an index perspective, up nearly 4%.
After a choppy session, the ASX200 closed slightly lower on the first day of October, with BHP Group (BHP) shaving 17 points off the index, which ultimately slipped just three points. The market seesawed through the day as investors weighed reports of a halt to BHP’s China-bound iron ore shipments alongside concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The ASX chopped around today, ultimately finishing down a few points with pundits blaming the U.S. government standoff, however we’ve been here before and it rarely creates a large volatility spike – never say never, but it’s generally more about political posturing.
The ASX200 slipped 0.2% on Tuesday after the RBA and Michele Bullock threw a wet towel over the “Rate Cut Party”, although she really only maintained her logical, cautious narrative.
The ASX opened firmer but reversed course after the RBA left rates unchanged at 3.6% and warned that near-term inflation may be stronger than expected, dampening hopes for easing in the short-term.
The ASX 200 put in a stellar performance on the penultimate day of September, advancing by +0.9% and reducing the month's decline to 1.2% with just today remaining. Gains weren't overly broad-based, with less than 60% of the main board closing higher, but when the “Big Four Banks” advance on average more than 1.8% the index is almost guaranteed to rally, and when it's supported by the influential healthcare names, and a rampant gold sector, gains become magnified ultimately delivering the best day since September the 4th.
A bullish start to the week with the ASX outpacing gains seen in the US on Friday evening – the index getting the bit between its teeth from the opening bell, holding onto the gains as the day progressed.
The timing is striking: October is just days away, and the U.S. faces yet another potential government shutdown. If it occurs, key releases such as next Friday’s September jobs report would be delayed. Historically, shutdowns tend to inject short-term volatility but rarely have a lasting market impact, as they are often averted at the last minute or resolved quickly, a fitting backdrop for October’s reputation for turbulence.
The ASX200 snapped a 3 week losing streak up +0.2% although the broad market was soft with 8 of the main 11 sectors closing lower. However, a stellar +5.9% advance by the influential materials sector was enough to see the local bourse close higher, even as global indices experienced a rare dip for 2025. This recent sector rotation into the miners will be challenged early next week following a dip by BHP in the US on Friday night.
The ASX clawed back early weakness on Friday down about ~25pts early but rebounded strongly with a +40pt rally, edging into positive territory as strength in miners and the big banks offset heavy losses across healthcare, though only four of eleven sectors ended in the green.
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