Macro Monday on Tuesday: If bonds are correct hold on tight here comes a recession

US stocks experienced a mixed session post-Easter with the Dow closing up +0.3% while the tech-based NASDAQ slipped -0.1% but the standout of the night was the market’s strong recovery from a sharp intraday sell-off e.g. the S&P500 eked out a +0.1% gain after initially falling ~0.8% on fears of another rate hike in May. The read-through being the markets are not keen on another rate hike next month but it’s capable of taking one in its stride.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 28/01/2026 17:19

The Match Out: CPI comes in hot, ASX shrugs it off

The ASX surrendered early gains and finished mildly lower after a hotter-than-expected December CPI reading firmed market expectations of a February rate hike from the RBA.

Morning report 28/01/2026 09:30

Portfolio Positioning: The President propels the Aussie through 70c & gold to new highs

The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday following strong trading by miners on overseas bourses, and it didn’t look back, closing up +0.9%, at its highest level since October when the index posted its all-time high. The charge higher by the local materials sectors is unrelenting, with yesterday’s +1.7% gain taking the sector up +10.8% year-to-date, and we’re still in January! The gains by some well-known names in 2026 have put the mining bulls in dreamland.

Afternoon report 27/01/2026 17:01

The Match Out: Resources keep on firing, ASX climbs to 3-month high

The ASX closed higher after a day off, buoyed by a powerful rally in precious and base metals stocks, with gold climbing to yet another all time high, now seemingly setting a new record every day, and Copper stocks chipping in too. While geopolitical noise remains in the background, the session had a risk-on feel as the rotation into resources showed no signs of slowing down with the index closing at its highest level since October.

Morning report 27/01/2026 09:37

Macro Monday (on Tuesday): Japan becomes the new market focus

Japan’s bond market has rattled global financial markets several times in recent years, and risks appear to be resurfacing. The most memorable yen carry-trade unwind since COVID started after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2024. The BOJ’s first rate hike came in March 2024, when it ended negative interest rates and lifted the policy rate to just 0–0.1%.

Weekend report 24/01/2026 09:28

Weekend Q&A – PART 2/2: The ASX shrugs off Greenland & interest rate headwinds

The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.5%, recovering from early weakness sparked by President Trump’s threats toward European allies tied to his ambitions around Greenland. While the rhetoric was quickly walked back at Davos, the episode was a reminder of how abruptly geopolitical risk can re-emerge. Yet markets largely shrugged it off, highlighting their resilience to headline-driven volatility. The “buy-the-dip” trade — closely tied to the so-called “TACO trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) — continues to deliver, at least for now. The market may feel unsettled to many, but it's still up +1.7% year-to-date, dragged higher by a robust materials sector, which has already surged +9.3% in 2026.

Weekend report 24/01/2026 09:07

Weekend Q&A – PART 1/2: The ASX shrugs off Greenland & interest rate headwinds

Afternoon report 23/01/2026 16:40

The Match Out: Tech stocks finally see some love, ASX up on the day, mildly lower for the week

The ASX finished modestly higher as a rare day of strength for the IT stocks and continued support for the gold miners offset broader caution across banks and consumer shares. While the headlines have cooled through the week, geopolitical tension and rake hike expectations continue to reinforce nervous sentiment, as the market positions for what will likely be a volatile reporting season ahead – both here and in the US.

Morning report 23/01/2026 10:18

ETF Friday: Is there better value in LIC’s vs ETF’s?

The ASX 200 bounced +0.8% on Thursday, driven higher by a robust banking sector - the financials contributed 80% of the index's 66-point gain. The gold sector dominated the losers' enclosure as the precious metal lost its shine following Trump's more balanced speech from Davos, which notably stated that the US wouldn’t invade Greenland or impose tariffs on European nations in February.

Afternoon report 22/01/2026 17:19

The Match Out: ASX rallies despite hotter employment data

The ASX proved resilient today, shaking off a stronger-than-expected jobs report that lifted rate-hike expectations for the February RBA meeting. Tariff fears eased as President Trump softened his stance on Europe and Greenland underpinning sentiment, with strength across the banks and energy sector more than offsetting weakness in gold, allowing the market to hold solid gains into the close.

Morning report 22/01/2026 09:44

What Matters Today: Have uranium stocks run too far?

The ASX 200 slipped another 0.4% on Wednesday, its third consecutive decline, which was not enough to take the index into negative territory for the year, but it's trying hard. After a brief attempt to bounce on Tuesday, the growth stocks returned to the losers enclosure while the resources delivered another standout performance to mitigate the day's decline.