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Morning report

Macro Monday: Russia is creating a huge squeeze in commodities

March kicked off with another week dominated by news around Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine while over the weekend we saw the Chinese Government set ambitious economic growth targets suggesting another bout of aggressive fiscal stimulus in an effort to offset both rising geopolitical tensions and their painful domestic property collapse – it was only back in the 2nd half of 2021 that China Evergrande’s debt woes made scary headlines but it already seems like an almost distant memory. The ramifications of Chinas 5.5% GDP target, which is well above the IMF’s 4.8%, suggests meaningful...
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing some often ignored ASX100 names

The ASX200 again tested the psychological 7200 area late yesterday morning before drifting lower and ultimately surrendering over half of its morning’s gains to close up just 35-points for the day. We may be only 2-months into 2022 but MM’s view that the year would be characterised by significant volatility on both the stock and sector level is looking even more on point than even we imagined, a quick scan of some of the major winners & losers over the last 9-weeks says it all:
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM lightens our oil & gold holdings into panic buying, what to buy?

The ASX200 delivered a stellar performance on Wednesday by rallying 20-points in the wake of a 600-point plunge by the Dow – as we said yesterday “MM still feels that stocks want to trade higher”. We may have seen 65% of stocks decline yesterday but the stellar gains across the Energy, Gold and Resources Sectors was enough to carry the index higher. Some subscribers may have been surprised to see our sell alerts cross their screens yesterday but I remind you of a couple of famous investing quotes plus a personal favourite of one of the MM team:
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Inflation fears are rising fast as Russia plunges into an economic abyss

Tuesday saw the ASX200 gain 0.7% but It was significantly higher at lunchtime before US futures started drifting lower reminding local investors that Eastern Europe is in the midst of a very scary war. Gains were still broad based with almost 70% of stocks closing up on the day but a reversal by the big miners reined in the markets gain even as the IT Sector surged well over 5% - with the current Ukraine crisis stock / sector rotation moves are struggling to be sustainable for more than a few days.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Investors still feel underweight gold stocks

The ASX200 promised so much on Monday but ultimately delivered just a little as Ukraine tensions came back to the fore as Belarus entered the affray and the West continue to gear up sanctions against Russia – before the ASX even opened US stock futures were down over 2%, gold spiked almost $US40/oz higher and brent crude soared 7%, back above $US105/barrel. MM is looking for a few weeks choppy action across financial markets, which is hardly a grandiose call but if yesterday is anything to go by we feel smack on the money.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Markets amazingly shrug off Putin as an irritant

The year is less than 2-months old but it feels like stocks have walked a path far longer, broad based US stocks have already corrected ~15% while the previously high flying tech sector has endured a painful 22% pullback primarily around fears that rising inflation / bond yields will see a major rerating of the growth sector – interestingly the last time equities experienced similar “bond jitters” was in late 2018 when the NASDAQ fell 23% just 3-months before soaring to fresh all-time highs.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: It’s time to navigate a roller-coaster in Europe

The ASX200 was smashed 3% yesterday with sheer panic rolling through equities as Russia invaded the Ukraine, its been 67-years since World War 2 and many commentators have already started drawing comparisons as Vladimir Putin shows total disregard for the majority of people in the Eastern European nation, Joe Biden and NATO all in one resounding move. The rhetoric from Putin has also been very aggressive with the following statement catching many people’s attention – if anyone tries to stop us there will be “consequences as you have never before experienced”. The sea of red across our screens come 4pm...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM’s current favourite 3 defensive stocks into weakness

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong recovery yesterday even after US stocks fell over 1%, the buying was broad based with less than 30% of stocks falling as the “risk on” button was re-engaged taking the market up 0.6% with tech stocks finally coming to the fore – time will tell but perhaps MM nailed it with Tuesdays report : “What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!“. More on some of the Australian tech stocks a little later but this note won’t be 1-way traffic even if we...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The Ukraine continues to dominate risk markets

Tuesday saw the ASX200 get smacked 1% as Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway zones of Ukraine, it looks like sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty are on the menu over the coming weeks / months. Unfortunately the Russian President appears very comfortable to test the UN’s resolve as he starts advancing his pawns in an initial gambit towards Biden and the West, unfortunately this is a very real game with peoples lives at stake as opposed to an enjoyable game of chess.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!

The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
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MM is now neutral / bullish copper
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MM is mildly bullish the ASX200 below 7200
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IVV
MM remains bullish US stocks short-term
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MM likes the risk / reward with the FTSE around 6700
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MM still believes Australian 3-year yields will struggle to breach 2% through 2022/23
MM believes US 10-year bond yields will struggle to advance much above 2% in 2022
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USD
MM’s remains net bearish the $US though 2022 – just!
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MM is bullish the $A through 2022
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MM remains bullish commodities long-term
MM is now neutral to bullish crude oil short-term
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MM remains neutral Bitcoin
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MM can see another test of $US450/MT this week

Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing some often ignored ASX100 names

The ASX200 again tested the psychological 7200 area late yesterday morning before drifting lower and ultimately surrendering over half of its morning’s gains to close up just 35-points for the day. We may be only 2-months into 2022 but MM’s view that the year would be characterised by significant volatility on both the stock and sector level is looking even more on point than even we imagined, a quick scan of some of the major winners & losers over the last 9-weeks says it all:

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM lightens our oil & gold holdings into panic buying, what to buy?

The ASX200 delivered a stellar performance on Wednesday by rallying 20-points in the wake of a 600-point plunge by the Dow – as we said yesterday “MM still feels that stocks want to trade higher”. We may have seen 65% of stocks decline yesterday but the stellar gains across the Energy, Gold and Resources Sectors was enough to carry the index higher. Some subscribers may have been surprised to see our sell alerts cross their screens yesterday but I remind you of a couple of famous investing quotes plus a personal favourite of one of the MM team:

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Inflation fears are rising fast as Russia plunges into an economic abyss

Tuesday saw the ASX200 gain 0.7% but It was significantly higher at lunchtime before US futures started drifting lower reminding local investors that Eastern Europe is in the midst of a very scary war. Gains were still broad based with almost 70% of stocks closing up on the day but a reversal by the big miners reined in the markets gain even as the IT Sector surged well over 5% - with the current Ukraine crisis stock / sector rotation moves are struggling to be sustainable for more than a few days.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Investors still feel underweight gold stocks

The ASX200 promised so much on Monday but ultimately delivered just a little as Ukraine tensions came back to the fore as Belarus entered the affray and the West continue to gear up sanctions against Russia – before the ASX even opened US stock futures were down over 2%, gold spiked almost $US40/oz higher and brent crude soared 7%, back above $US105/barrel. MM is looking for a few weeks choppy action across financial markets, which is hardly a grandiose call but if yesterday is anything to go by we feel smack on the money.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Markets amazingly shrug off Putin as an irritant

The year is less than 2-months old but it feels like stocks have walked a path far longer, broad based US stocks have already corrected ~15% while the previously high flying tech sector has endured a painful 22% pullback primarily around fears that rising inflation / bond yields will see a major rerating of the growth sector – interestingly the last time equities experienced similar “bond jitters” was in late 2018 when the NASDAQ fell 23% just 3-months before soaring to fresh all-time highs.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: It’s time to navigate a roller-coaster in Europe

The ASX200 was smashed 3% yesterday with sheer panic rolling through equities as Russia invaded the Ukraine, its been 67-years since World War 2 and many commentators have already started drawing comparisons as Vladimir Putin shows total disregard for the majority of people in the Eastern European nation, Joe Biden and NATO all in one resounding move. The rhetoric from Putin has also been very aggressive with the following statement catching many people’s attention – if anyone tries to stop us there will be “consequences as you have never before experienced”. The sea of red across our screens come 4pm...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM’s current favourite 3 defensive stocks into weakness

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong recovery yesterday even after US stocks fell over 1%, the buying was broad based with less than 30% of stocks falling as the “risk on” button was re-engaged taking the market up 0.6% with tech stocks finally coming to the fore – time will tell but perhaps MM nailed it with Tuesdays report : “What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!“. More on some of the Australian tech stocks a little later but this note won’t be 1-way traffic even if we...

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The Ukraine continues to dominate risk markets

Tuesday saw the ASX200 get smacked 1% as Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway zones of Ukraine, it looks like sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty are on the menu over the coming weeks / months. Unfortunately the Russian President appears very comfortable to test the UN’s resolve as he starts advancing his pawns in an initial gambit towards Biden and the West, unfortunately this is a very real game with peoples lives at stake as opposed to an enjoyable game of chess.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Hold on tight but tech looks set for a decent bounce!

The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...

what matters today Market Matters
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