HomeReportsMacro Monday: It’s May, the RBA is set to hike tomorrow…
Over recent decades investors in Australian shares have regularly experienced a negative return through May & June, hence the phrase quoted at nauseam “sell in May and go away”. This morning is certainly poised to rattle investors after Fridays -3.6% plunge by the US S&P500 following further disappointing earnings reports. At MM we had been looking for a spike to new highs through March / April to migrate down the risk curve while at the same time increasing cash levels, so far we’ve only increased our exposure to the defensive end of town as opposed to executing some outright selling as the index failed to reach our upside target levels.
The ASX had another tough session today with selling fairly broad-based, leaving the market testing its 200-day moving average as investors remain cautious around the macro backdrop.
The heavyweight US indices powered to fresh all-time highs on Friday night. However, the weekend delivered another twist to the Iran saga with US President Trump abruptly cancelling the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for peace talks, citing unnecessary costs and a disappointing offer from Tehran.
The ASX200 ended the penultimate week of April, surrendering -1.8% of the month's gain, with a string of profit downgrades combining with the country’s high vulnerability to the global fuel crisis caused by the Iran war - the oil price continues to grind higher with no clear resolution in sight for the conflict. A wave of profit downgrades swept the ASX, led this week by Cochlear’s earnings shock, which sent its shares plunging 40%. Other companies warning that surging energy costs will weigh on earnings included Qantas, Worley, a2 Milk, Orora, Cleanaway and Qube. The ASX is also struggling because its two heavyweight sectors have come off the boil, the banks and resources.
A choppy session that mirrored yesterday’s move to end the week as higher oil prices kept a lid on the local market for most of the day until a decent ~50pt rally from the lows saw the index finish almost flat into the close. The selling in financials eased, providing some stability, while materials weighed as gold stocks took a hit.
The ASX remained under pressure today, as the index notched its third consecutive day of losses, weighed down by renewed fears around the Iran conflict after reports of Iranian gunboats firing on commercial vessels and seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The ASX200 fell sharply on Wednesday, dragged lower by healthcare and banking stocks, while miners offered little support to offset the weakness. The bears dominated the company news, with Cochlear (ASX:COH) -41%, Generation Development (ASX:GDG) -23%, and Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) -9.1% pushing a bounce by Treasury Wine (ASX:TWE) +17% into the shade. The ongoing weakness in the banking sector, combined with heavy selling in healthcare stocks, accounted for more than 95% of the day's decline, underscoring the market's concentration of weakness. Similarly, the trifecta of Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), Cochlear (ASX:COH) and CSL Ltd (ASX:CSL) made up 50% of the day's decline on their own.
The ASX endured a tough session with heavy selling in Financials and Healthcare on a read-through from Bank of Queensland’s shrinking net interest margins and a brutal downgrade from Cochlear. The weakness came despite relatively stable overseas leads after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire extension – pushing US Futures higher during our time zone. However, with no deadline in play, the question becomes how long negotiations will be drawn out for, with higher oil prices incrementally adding to inflationary pressures each day that passes.
The ASX200 finished a choppy session little changed on Tuesday, for a third straight session, amid a looming US-Iran ceasefire deadline and continued tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, it was a quiet session on both the stock and sector front with only the consumer staples (+0.76%) and energy sector (-0.9%) moving by more than 0.5%, with the index remaining range-bound between 8890 and 9020 for the 10th consecutive session.
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