The combination of inflation, interest rates and bond yields have driven equities post-Covid, as global uncertainty escalated through/after the pandemic the RBA and US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to basically zero which propelled risk assets, including stocks, to fresh all-time highs. Unfortunately, the inability of these central banks to take some medicine early on and start slowly raising rates from say late 2020 has seen the inflation genie escape the lamp and the rest is already history i.e. the steepest, most aggressive series of interest rate hikes in history.
The ASX200 fell another -0.7% on Thursday dragged lower by broad-based selling and specific weakness across the influential banks and large-cap miners. A combination of the RBA hiking rates at the same time as growth data has started to soften has weighed on already nervous growth names while the China reopening play has started to lose momentum after pushing our Resources Sector significantly higher over recent weeks.
The ASX200 experienced a tough Wednesday finally closing down -0.85% after a huge sell order hit the SPI futures market after 4 pm, ultimately it doubled the day’s losses in just 10-minutes i.e. before the aggressive MOC Order (market on close) the index had clawed back from being down 70-points to being just 32-points in the red. The market was feeling reasonably constructive into 4 pm but alas big MOC sell orders are often a sign equities have lost their mojo, at least for a while, remember in Wednesday’s Portfolio Report after the RBA’s 8th consecutive....
The phrase “what a difference a day/week etc” makes is often used liberally but 2022 certainly qualifies when it comes to interest rates, yesterday saw the RBA hike the Official Cash Rate for a record 8 consecutive times taking us from an all-time low of 0.1% to a 10 year high above 3%. Australia has seen 2 major extremes in the blink of an eye, it feels like only yesterday when Philip Lowe said that interest rates would stay low until 2024 – he actually started the rhetoric in 2020 and continued it through much of 2021.
The ASX200 rallied another +0.3% on Monday courtesy of China’s reopening shift which propelled resource stocks higher on hopes that the global economy can avoid a deep contraction in 2023, unfortunately, the move caused the market to polarise as bond yields rallied in line with the optimism towards the growth outlook. The move in bonds resulted in over half of the market closing lower but when the heavyweight resources advance strongly the market often ignores the crowd:
Most people think 2022 has been an awful year for equities but performance has actually been very stock/sector-specific, it hasn’t been an annulus horribilis for broad market investors. The ASX200 will commence its run towards Christmas this morning down less than 2% with dividends for the average portfolio more than making up for the slight fall. Last week we saw dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell weigh on bond yields and the $US which in turn ignited the interest rate-sensitive pockets of the stock market which could easily see the ASX close up for the year:
The ASX200 surged higher on the 1stday of December as it celebrated Jerome Powell’s first meaningfully dovish comments of 2022, the result on the stock level was very much as expected with interest rate sensitive names finally hogging the limelight e.g. four stocks held at MM soared higher, Evolution Mining (EVN) +6.3%, Xero (XRO) +6.2%, James Hardie (JHX) +5.4% and Sandfire (SFR) +5.2%. We have been positioned for such a move for over a month so let’s hope it’s not a “one and done” knee-jerk rally following the Fed Chairs speech.
• “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting” – Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed Reserve.
The gains were broad-based across the market with over 75% of the main board closing in positive territory, only the Energy & Healthcare Sectors closed down on the day which saw the ASX200 trade within 3.6% of its all-time high posted in August of 2021 – what bear market! The defensives are not surprisingly the main area dragging the chain which could provide MM with some excellent switching opportunities when we feel its time to migrate back down the risk curve:
We’ve already seen some massive squeezes through July/August this year with Zip (Z1P) coming to mind but with the ASX already knocking on the door of its all-time high, we question what stocks/sectors investors will remain comfortable chasing higher with 7600 less than 4% away from where we are set to open this morning – the bears clearly are not enjoying the last quarter of 2022.
The news would imply otherwise but reopening bets have propelled Chinese equities towards their best month in years i.e. the markets are saying when not if, will Beijing shift away from its economically damaging Covid-zero policy. The last 2-years have seen Chinese indices plunge over 40% under the weight of both a domestic property crisis and ongoing Covid restrictions. However, with 24 hours remaining Chinese stocks in Hong Kong are set for their best month since 2003 while the Yuan is set for its largest monthly advance in 4 years.
The Covid pandemic had a very mixed impact on Australian Healthcare stocks with investors appearing to get far too optimistic towards the beneficiaries as we saw with Healius (HLS) yesterday whose Covid testing revenue has already plunged 85% taking the stock down 45% in less than 12-months.
The ASX200 fell another -0.7% on Thursday dragged lower by broad-based selling and specific weakness across the influential banks and large-cap miners. A combination of the RBA hiking rates at the same time as growth data has started to soften has weighed on already nervous growth names while the China reopening play has started to lose momentum after pushing our Resources Sector significantly higher over recent weeks.
The ASX200 experienced a tough Wednesday finally closing down -0.85% after a huge sell order hit the SPI futures market after 4 pm, ultimately it doubled the day’s losses in just 10-minutes i.e. before the aggressive MOC Order (market on close) the index had clawed back from being down 70-points to being just 32-points in the red. The market was feeling reasonably constructive into 4 pm but alas big MOC sell orders are often a sign equities have lost their mojo, at least for a while, remember in Wednesday’s Portfolio Report after the RBA’s 8th consecutive....
The phrase “what a difference a day/week etc” makes is often used liberally but 2022 certainly qualifies when it comes to interest rates, yesterday saw the RBA hike the Official Cash Rate for a record 8 consecutive times taking us from an all-time low of 0.1% to a 10 year high above 3%. Australia has seen 2 major extremes in the blink of an eye, it feels like only yesterday when Philip Lowe said that interest rates would stay low until 2024 – he actually started the rhetoric in 2020 and continued it through much of 2021.
The ASX200 rallied another +0.3% on Monday courtesy of China’s reopening shift which propelled resource stocks higher on hopes that the global economy can avoid a deep contraction in 2023, unfortunately, the move caused the market to polarise as bond yields rallied in line with the optimism towards the growth outlook. The move in bonds resulted in over half of the market closing lower but when the heavyweight resources advance strongly the market often ignores the crowd:
Most people think 2022 has been an awful year for equities but performance has actually been very stock/sector-specific, it hasn’t been an annulus horribilis for broad market investors. The ASX200 will commence its run towards Christmas this morning down less than 2% with dividends for the average portfolio more than making up for the slight fall. Last week we saw dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell weigh on bond yields and the $US which in turn ignited the interest rate-sensitive pockets of the stock market which could easily see the ASX close up for the year:
The ASX200 surged higher on the 1stday of December as it celebrated Jerome Powell’s first meaningfully dovish comments of 2022, the result on the stock level was very much as expected with interest rate sensitive names finally hogging the limelight e.g. four stocks held at MM soared higher, Evolution Mining (EVN) +6.3%, Xero (XRO) +6.2%, James Hardie (JHX) +5.4% and Sandfire (SFR) +5.2%. We have been positioned for such a move for over a month so let’s hope it’s not a “one and done” knee-jerk rally following the Fed Chairs speech.
• “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting” – Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed Reserve.
The gains were broad-based across the market with over 75% of the main board closing in positive territory, only the Energy & Healthcare Sectors closed down on the day which saw the ASX200 trade within 3.6% of its all-time high posted in August of 2021 – what bear market! The defensives are not surprisingly the main area dragging the chain which could provide MM with some excellent switching opportunities when we feel its time to migrate back down the risk curve:
We’ve already seen some massive squeezes through July/August this year with Zip (Z1P) coming to mind but with the ASX already knocking on the door of its all-time high, we question what stocks/sectors investors will remain comfortable chasing higher with 7600 less than 4% away from where we are set to open this morning – the bears clearly are not enjoying the last quarter of 2022.
The news would imply otherwise but reopening bets have propelled Chinese equities towards their best month in years i.e. the markets are saying when not if, will Beijing shift away from its economically damaging Covid-zero policy. The last 2-years have seen Chinese indices plunge over 40% under the weight of both a domestic property crisis and ongoing Covid restrictions. However, with 24 hours remaining Chinese stocks in Hong Kong are set for their best month since 2003 while the Yuan is set for its largest monthly advance in 4 years.
The Covid pandemic had a very mixed impact on Australian Healthcare stocks with investors appearing to get far too optimistic towards the beneficiaries as we saw with Healius (HLS) yesterday whose Covid testing revenue has already plunged 85% taking the stock down 45% in less than 12-months.
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