Equities have really struggled since the short squeeze/optimism fuelled 2-month rally that ran out of momentum in mid-August, in just 3-weeks the US S&P500 has fallen by -9.7%. It’s very easy to blame Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric from Jackson hole for the decline but stocks were already slipping before he spoke and they’ve extended the declines afterwards with the Resources Sector compounding local losses following Chinas lockdown of Chengdu, another drastic attempt by Beijing to achieve Covid-Zero that feels capable of spreading to other cities. It’s very important that subscribers...
The ASX200 has kicked off September in a similar tone to the back-end of August, yesterday’s 141-point drop may have felt particularly aggressive to some observers but we shouldn’t lose sight of the significant influence of BHP trading ex-dividend, it was effectively 33% of the whole markets decline! However, the broad-based selling which resulted in less than 10% of the main board managing to close up on the day would have delivered some definite Spring cheer to the bears. Globally we saw stocks and bonds (rates higher) extend their recent slide as China lockdowns amplified the market’s worries post Jackson Hole.
The ASX200 said goodbye to August with another choppy session around the 7000 level, last month may have seen an attempt to break both under 6900 and above 7100 but come the 31st more than half of the month’s action unfolded close to the psychological 7000 area. Under the hood, it was a very different story at times as stock/sector rotation remains the main game in town after an interesting reporting season that saw more beats than misses but an underlying cautious tone towards...
Over the last 2-weeks on Ausbiz our Research Lead Shawn has mentioned how cryptos and especially Bitcoin can be a leading indicator for stocks, the chart below illustrates perfectly how in November 2021 Bitcoin topped out about 2-weeks earlier than the US Tech Sector, they subsequently rolled lower in tandem as “risk off” has become the new norm, the current read through for liquidity and risk assets is one of clear short-term caution:
A few words from Jerome Powell was enough to whack the ASX200 yesterday with only 2% of stocks managing to close up on Monday but the -1.95% sell-off still felt restrained compared to US indices - although we did post fresh 4-week lows on the day. There was no particular surprise with yesterday’s reaction to Jerome Powell’s comments from Jackson Hole and subsequent aggressive sell-off across US stocks, the interest rates sensitive local Tech Sector fell -4.4% to be worst on ground although there was nowhere...
Jerome Powell delivered almost the exact speech most stock market investors/traders were dreading from Jackson Hole on Friday however if you’re relatively cashed up like MM its not all bad news, although it’s unlikely our portfolios will be unscathed this morning even while we hold our highest cash levels in months. This is actually an opportune time to make mention of how important we believe psychology is for successful investing, to MM it ranks equally alongside the other 2 largely more recognised building blocks on which successful market players focus their efforts/attention:
The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday helped by a bounce in US stocks, a couple of strong company reports and further corporate activity as Perpetual (PPT) and Pendal Group (PDL) look to have finally tied the knot – M&A was added to overnight as the next stage of the KKR v Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) saga was released, more on this later. Market sentiment was also helped by Japan looking to restart nuclear power as the idealistic alternatives fail to match the country’s energy demands – it’s been well over a decade since the 2011 Fukushima disaster hammered consumer confidence in nuclear power but time can heal many wounds.
Wednesday saw the ASX200 fight hard to recover some of the last few day’s losses with the index finally closing up +0.5%, just below the psychological 7000 level. It was a busy day on the earnings front for the ASX with sentiment buoyed by further strong company performances, over 80% of the stocks on the main board which reported earnings closed up on the day. While only 62% of the index managed to advance it was another strong performance from the miners which suppressed any intra-day jitters, the IT Sector also helped the cause as they followed the lead from an improved sector performance on Wall Street plus a +12.8% rally by Wisetech (WTC) helped sentiment.
Yesterday was a tough day at the office for stocks with the ASX200 falling -1.2% on broad-based selling which resulted in 80% of the main board closing lower at the indexes lowest close since July. The market opened on a bearish note following losses across US & European bourses but this time a mixed bag of corporate results wasn’t enough to stem the tide and stocks extended losses over the day to close on the session low, back under the psychological 7000 level. The markets painting a fascinating picture on 2 levels with bond yields still the controlling factor:
The ASX200 endured one of its worst days for months on Monday with broad-based selling washing through the main board although it was the banks and IT stocks which caught our eye on the downside. Buyers of the dip evaporated as concerns around inflation & rate hikes returned to haunt the recent bulls of tech/growth names not helped by Australian 10-year bond yields testing their 1-month high, back above 3.5%.
The ASX200 has kicked off September in a similar tone to the back-end of August, yesterday’s 141-point drop may have felt particularly aggressive to some observers but we shouldn’t lose sight of the significant influence of BHP trading ex-dividend, it was effectively 33% of the whole markets decline! However, the broad-based selling which resulted in less than 10% of the main board managing to close up on the day would have delivered some definite Spring cheer to the bears. Globally we saw stocks and bonds (rates higher) extend their recent slide as China lockdowns amplified the market’s worries post Jackson Hole.
The ASX200 said goodbye to August with another choppy session around the 7000 level, last month may have seen an attempt to break both under 6900 and above 7100 but come the 31st more than half of the month’s action unfolded close to the psychological 7000 area. Under the hood, it was a very different story at times as stock/sector rotation remains the main game in town after an interesting reporting season that saw more beats than misses but an underlying cautious tone towards...
Over the last 2-weeks on Ausbiz our Research Lead Shawn has mentioned how cryptos and especially Bitcoin can be a leading indicator for stocks, the chart below illustrates perfectly how in November 2021 Bitcoin topped out about 2-weeks earlier than the US Tech Sector, they subsequently rolled lower in tandem as “risk off” has become the new norm, the current read through for liquidity and risk assets is one of clear short-term caution:
A few words from Jerome Powell was enough to whack the ASX200 yesterday with only 2% of stocks managing to close up on Monday but the -1.95% sell-off still felt restrained compared to US indices - although we did post fresh 4-week lows on the day. There was no particular surprise with yesterday’s reaction to Jerome Powell’s comments from Jackson Hole and subsequent aggressive sell-off across US stocks, the interest rates sensitive local Tech Sector fell -4.4% to be worst on ground although there was nowhere...
Jerome Powell delivered almost the exact speech most stock market investors/traders were dreading from Jackson Hole on Friday however if you’re relatively cashed up like MM its not all bad news, although it’s unlikely our portfolios will be unscathed this morning even while we hold our highest cash levels in months. This is actually an opportune time to make mention of how important we believe psychology is for successful investing, to MM it ranks equally alongside the other 2 largely more recognised building blocks on which successful market players focus their efforts/attention:
The ASX200 rallied strongly on Thursday helped by a bounce in US stocks, a couple of strong company reports and further corporate activity as Perpetual (PPT) and Pendal Group (PDL) look to have finally tied the knot – M&A was added to overnight as the next stage of the KKR v Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) saga was released, more on this later. Market sentiment was also helped by Japan looking to restart nuclear power as the idealistic alternatives fail to match the country’s energy demands – it’s been well over a decade since the 2011 Fukushima disaster hammered consumer confidence in nuclear power but time can heal many wounds.
Wednesday saw the ASX200 fight hard to recover some of the last few day’s losses with the index finally closing up +0.5%, just below the psychological 7000 level. It was a busy day on the earnings front for the ASX with sentiment buoyed by further strong company performances, over 80% of the stocks on the main board which reported earnings closed up on the day. While only 62% of the index managed to advance it was another strong performance from the miners which suppressed any intra-day jitters, the IT Sector also helped the cause as they followed the lead from an improved sector performance on Wall Street plus a +12.8% rally by Wisetech (WTC) helped sentiment.
Yesterday was a tough day at the office for stocks with the ASX200 falling -1.2% on broad-based selling which resulted in 80% of the main board closing lower at the indexes lowest close since July. The market opened on a bearish note following losses across US & European bourses but this time a mixed bag of corporate results wasn’t enough to stem the tide and stocks extended losses over the day to close on the session low, back under the psychological 7000 level. The markets painting a fascinating picture on 2 levels with bond yields still the controlling factor:
The ASX200 endured one of its worst days for months on Monday with broad-based selling washing through the main board although it was the banks and IT stocks which caught our eye on the downside. Buyers of the dip evaporated as concerns around inflation & rate hikes returned to haunt the recent bulls of tech/growth names not helped by Australian 10-year bond yields testing their 1-month high, back above 3.5%.
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