Overnight, the influential former Federal Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he's expecting three rate cuts in 2024 as inflation moves towards the Feds target even while the economy remains resilient, i.e. the “Goldilocks” scenario for stocks. Bullard’s outlook echoed the Fed’s messaging as opposed to the increasing market expectations that two cuts have become more likely than three, e.g. Treasury yields made new highs for the year on Monday night. Mr Bullard is indirectly quoting the old adage of “don’t fight the Fed”. However, it wasn’t the ongoing commentary from the central banker that caught our attention but rather the market’s reaction following the relatively Dovish interview—gold surged over $US30 to another all-time high while bond yields hardly moved. This has been the story of 2024, which has seen gold surge around $US300/oz while bonds have drifted lower (yields higher).
BHP and RIO are two stocks most closely followed by MM subscribers; just look at Saturday's Q&A. Hence, it caught our attention when one of the leading stories in yesterday's AFR was “Brokers go all in on RIO tipping 20% annual share price jump”, i.e., at MM, we’ve preferred BHP over RIO over recent years. They believe that RIO is better positioned for a boom in industrial metals, and they also think it has a stronger balance sheet. A glance at the two stocks shows they’ve pretty much danced in tandem since COVID, while so far in 2024, BHP is down -12.2% and RIO -10.3%, with iron ore weighing on both miners.
Gold surged to new all-time highs last week, shrugging off a pullback in bonds (higher yields). The trend of precious metals is usually determined or significantly influenced by interest rates, but not at the moment—higher interest rates make zero-yielding assets such as gold less attractive from a relative perspective. There are arguably three main drivers of gold at the moment, with two very bullish and one mildly bearish short-term.
These three unrelated commodities have surged higher recently, taking many ASX names along for the ride. For example, in 2024, Sandfire Resources (SFR) is up +24%, Northern Star (NST) +8%, and Paladin (PDN) +50%. Fortunately, at MM, we enjoyed the moves of all three themes, and today, we quickly reviewed the group to evaluate if our exposure needs tweaking as market volatility starts to increase.
We believe the end-of-quarter squeeze into Easter amplified the sharp fall on Wednesday; hence, we looked back at the charts to see if this “Gut Feel” had any foundation. Only twice since COVID have stocks squeezed into the end of the quarter, and the last time was the previous quarter, which subsequently witnessed the ASX200 unravel 260 points in just three weeks. However, any further comparisons are akin to “curve fitting,” with such upside squeezes actually very few and far between.
Tuesday delivered a fascinating session for Australian investors. A macro arm wrestle unfolded, causing significant action under the hood before the index eventually slipped just -0.1 %. This was a solid performance, in our opinion, considering Thursday's storming session to end the quarter. The bulls welcomed a resurgence in China-facing stocks, while interest rate-sensitive names struggled as the doves pulled back bets on a Fed rate cut in June. We're conscious that over recent years, bonds and stocks haven't walked a different path for very long.
Gold popped almost $US50/oz yesterday evening, posting another fresh all-time high in the process as investors/traders further digested last week's market-friendly PCE Index data. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation is cooling which suggests the Fed is getting ever closer to cutting rates. The precious metal is also enjoying the added tailwind of powerful Chinese demand and ongoing global political tensions, what's not to like? Gold has surged ~12% over the last six weeks, and with no near term end in sight for the three bullish drivers mentioned previously, we can see it testing $US2400-2500 before Christmas.
Healthcare stocks caught our attention on Wednesday after their +1.3% advance. However, they’ve been a clear laggard in 2024, advancing only +2.1%, while four other sectors have delivered double-digit gains. The potential influence of the new wonder weight loss drug, Ozempic et al., has weighed on a couple of influential ASX names, but with interest rate cuts on the horizon, we question if this underperformance will continue. Another bonus from the sector is its label as a defensive play, a comforting addition to most portfolios with global equities pushing to fresh all-time highs.
As the market slips into the Easter long weekend, some profit-taking felt evident on Tuesday, no great surprise considering the index has rallied over 15% from its November low. The afternoon selling wasn’t overly aggressive, but as we touched on yesterday morning, the markets are a touch bullish and long; hence, some book-squaring/selling by the weak longs didn’t encounter any significant resistance. One of the main themes of 2024 to date has been the strong getting stronger and often the weak getting weaker, even as the ASX200 forged to fresh all-time highs. A quick glance at some sectors three months into the year tells the tale: remember, the index is up a healthy +2.5%.
A number of major ASX200 stocks hit fresh recent highs on Monday, led by heavyweight real estate favourite Goodman Group (GMG) – as we’ve discussed in the past, this is one particular holding we are bullish over the medium term and are “happy to let it run” – MM is long GMG in our Active Growth Portfolio. This morning, we deliberately looked at five stocks, not in MM portfolios, but it was pleasing to see Xero (XRO) and Sandfire (SFR) both continuing to deliver and joining GMG in the winner's enclosure – note we already looked at Webjet (WEB) earlier in this mornings report hence didn’t cover again.
BHP and RIO are two stocks most closely followed by MM subscribers; just look at Saturday's Q&A. Hence, it caught our attention when one of the leading stories in yesterday's AFR was “Brokers go all in on RIO tipping 20% annual share price jump”, i.e., at MM, we’ve preferred BHP over RIO over recent years. They believe that RIO is better positioned for a boom in industrial metals, and they also think it has a stronger balance sheet. A glance at the two stocks shows they’ve pretty much danced in tandem since COVID, while so far in 2024, BHP is down -12.2% and RIO -10.3%, with iron ore weighing on both miners.
Gold surged to new all-time highs last week, shrugging off a pullback in bonds (higher yields). The trend of precious metals is usually determined or significantly influenced by interest rates, but not at the moment—higher interest rates make zero-yielding assets such as gold less attractive from a relative perspective. There are arguably three main drivers of gold at the moment, with two very bullish and one mildly bearish short-term.
These three unrelated commodities have surged higher recently, taking many ASX names along for the ride. For example, in 2024, Sandfire Resources (SFR) is up +24%, Northern Star (NST) +8%, and Paladin (PDN) +50%. Fortunately, at MM, we enjoyed the moves of all three themes, and today, we quickly reviewed the group to evaluate if our exposure needs tweaking as market volatility starts to increase.
We believe the end-of-quarter squeeze into Easter amplified the sharp fall on Wednesday; hence, we looked back at the charts to see if this “Gut Feel” had any foundation. Only twice since COVID have stocks squeezed into the end of the quarter, and the last time was the previous quarter, which subsequently witnessed the ASX200 unravel 260 points in just three weeks. However, any further comparisons are akin to “curve fitting,” with such upside squeezes actually very few and far between.
Tuesday delivered a fascinating session for Australian investors. A macro arm wrestle unfolded, causing significant action under the hood before the index eventually slipped just -0.1 %. This was a solid performance, in our opinion, considering Thursday's storming session to end the quarter. The bulls welcomed a resurgence in China-facing stocks, while interest rate-sensitive names struggled as the doves pulled back bets on a Fed rate cut in June. We're conscious that over recent years, bonds and stocks haven't walked a different path for very long.
Gold popped almost $US50/oz yesterday evening, posting another fresh all-time high in the process as investors/traders further digested last week's market-friendly PCE Index data. The Fed's preferred gauge of inflation is cooling which suggests the Fed is getting ever closer to cutting rates. The precious metal is also enjoying the added tailwind of powerful Chinese demand and ongoing global political tensions, what's not to like? Gold has surged ~12% over the last six weeks, and with no near term end in sight for the three bullish drivers mentioned previously, we can see it testing $US2400-2500 before Christmas.
Healthcare stocks caught our attention on Wednesday after their +1.3% advance. However, they’ve been a clear laggard in 2024, advancing only +2.1%, while four other sectors have delivered double-digit gains. The potential influence of the new wonder weight loss drug, Ozempic et al., has weighed on a couple of influential ASX names, but with interest rate cuts on the horizon, we question if this underperformance will continue. Another bonus from the sector is its label as a defensive play, a comforting addition to most portfolios with global equities pushing to fresh all-time highs.
As the market slips into the Easter long weekend, some profit-taking felt evident on Tuesday, no great surprise considering the index has rallied over 15% from its November low. The afternoon selling wasn’t overly aggressive, but as we touched on yesterday morning, the markets are a touch bullish and long; hence, some book-squaring/selling by the weak longs didn’t encounter any significant resistance. One of the main themes of 2024 to date has been the strong getting stronger and often the weak getting weaker, even as the ASX200 forged to fresh all-time highs. A quick glance at some sectors three months into the year tells the tale: remember, the index is up a healthy +2.5%.
A number of major ASX200 stocks hit fresh recent highs on Monday, led by heavyweight real estate favourite Goodman Group (GMG) – as we’ve discussed in the past, this is one particular holding we are bullish over the medium term and are “happy to let it run” – MM is long GMG in our Active Growth Portfolio. This morning, we deliberately looked at five stocks, not in MM portfolios, but it was pleasing to see Xero (XRO) and Sandfire (SFR) both continuing to deliver and joining GMG in the winner's enclosure – note we already looked at Webjet (WEB) earlier in this mornings report hence didn’t cover again.
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