The ASX200 enjoyed a strong day at the office on Tuesday, adding to a solid opening throughout the day to finish up over 1%. Gains were encouragingly broad-based, with over 75% of the main board and all 11 sectors closing in positive territory as sellers appeared to take a lead from the looming US Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. There were a couple of standout moves that should unsettle the numerous bears who are getting plenty of air time in the press.
China's housing crisis deteriorated in May, triggering further calls for Beijing to support the important economic area. Yesterday's data was the worst since 2011. The property market has weighed on China's economic growth for years, and yesterday saw declines in real estate investment and home prices gather pace. Also, industrial production missed expectations for May, rising 5.6% from a year earlier but slowing from April. The only encouraging light on Monday was Retail Sales improving faster than expected, but the net result is China is still experiencing a weak economic recovery, with Beijing needing to step up if it's going to achieve its 5% growth target.
French President Macron is playing a huge game of chess, poker, or maybe even chicken after making the calculated gamble that the French people won't hand over power to Marie Le Pen and the Far Right. Last Sunday’s European elections stunned the region as the Far Right Parties' popularity surged. The National Rally Party secured around twice as many votes as Macron’s Renaissance Party. Hence, the President's large throw of the dice, which has unsettled the French CAC-40 and other European equity indices.
A whopping 9% of the ASX200 is up over 30% so far in 2024, although a lot of better-known “high flyers” didn’t make the cut with such a high bar. Surprisingly, after moves on the sector level, there were still plenty of miners in the winner's enclosure driven by stock specific influences – which is true across the list below. While the Macro is important, and we place a lot of emphasis on it, stock picking is where the rubber hits the road.
We all know that 2024 has delivered a noticeably differing performance on the sector level so far, and this particular elastic band is likely to be stretched further this morning. The Tech Sector has outperformed the Materials by a whopping 35%. After moves overnight and renewed Chinese economic jitters, we could easily see it reach 40% this FY. Under the hood, the markets delivered even greater divergence of performance, with 5% of ASX200 stocks down 30% or more. Over the same period, the markets rallied ~1.6% before dividends, not a huge gain but still on the correct side of the ledger. This is a great example that avoiding losers is every bit as important as picking winners; one of the reasons MM Active Growth Portfolio is enjoying another solid year is that we’ve avoided 9 of the 10 names altogether while only enduring part of Corporate Travel’s (CTD) -33% decline so far this year.
We are less than halfway into June, and Europe has already elevated volatility across equity markets following a rate cut by the ECB and looming elections in the UK and France, where, in both cases, the incumbent party is in real danger of being ousted. There is an old saying that when the Dow sneezes, the ASX catches a cold; however, in the current market environment, the ASX is far more correlated to European stocks on a day-to-day basis, although, unfortunately, we have been underperforming both regions so far this year.
Equity markets hate uncertainty, which was illustrated overnight by French CAC’s initial 2.4% plunge following Macron's surprise announcement. Our underlying concern is whether stocks can maintain their upside momentum, with political and economic uncertainty increasing almost by the week—perhaps we are set for six months of ongoing stock and sector rotation.
The FANG acronym has lost its popularity through 2024 as the “Magnificent Seven” and “Super Six” are more eye-catching and useful for clicks in today's digital world. However, this index has continued to power to fresh all-time highs along with the NASDAQ, and while under the hood, not all stocks will move as one, the upside momentum of the index remains impressive.
The US Tech Sector surged to fresh all-time highs overnight, led by a 5.2% surge by Nvidia (NVDA US), the shining light. At the close, the $US3 trillion dollar AI behemoth had a larger market cap than Apple Inc (AAPL US), illustrating perfectly how things change in this rapidly evolving sector. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” should really be the “Super Six”, with Tesla (TSLA US) down 30% year-to-date, having themselves evolved and performed very differently over the last year, hence our consideration of where MM should be invested across the influential space.
Weakness across European indices has started to weigh on global markets ahead of this week's European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, reducing the main refinancing rate to 4.25%, the marginal lending rate to 4.50%, and the deposit rate to 3.75%. This will be the first cut in many years although Lagarde may have started to wish she hadn’t been so clear with her messaging for a cut in June. The question being asked is what comes next after this historic pivot.
China's housing crisis deteriorated in May, triggering further calls for Beijing to support the important economic area. Yesterday's data was the worst since 2011. The property market has weighed on China's economic growth for years, and yesterday saw declines in real estate investment and home prices gather pace. Also, industrial production missed expectations for May, rising 5.6% from a year earlier but slowing from April. The only encouraging light on Monday was Retail Sales improving faster than expected, but the net result is China is still experiencing a weak economic recovery, with Beijing needing to step up if it's going to achieve its 5% growth target.
French President Macron is playing a huge game of chess, poker, or maybe even chicken after making the calculated gamble that the French people won't hand over power to Marie Le Pen and the Far Right. Last Sunday’s European elections stunned the region as the Far Right Parties' popularity surged. The National Rally Party secured around twice as many votes as Macron’s Renaissance Party. Hence, the President's large throw of the dice, which has unsettled the French CAC-40 and other European equity indices.
A whopping 9% of the ASX200 is up over 30% so far in 2024, although a lot of better-known “high flyers” didn’t make the cut with such a high bar. Surprisingly, after moves on the sector level, there were still plenty of miners in the winner's enclosure driven by stock specific influences – which is true across the list below. While the Macro is important, and we place a lot of emphasis on it, stock picking is where the rubber hits the road.
We all know that 2024 has delivered a noticeably differing performance on the sector level so far, and this particular elastic band is likely to be stretched further this morning. The Tech Sector has outperformed the Materials by a whopping 35%. After moves overnight and renewed Chinese economic jitters, we could easily see it reach 40% this FY. Under the hood, the markets delivered even greater divergence of performance, with 5% of ASX200 stocks down 30% or more. Over the same period, the markets rallied ~1.6% before dividends, not a huge gain but still on the correct side of the ledger. This is a great example that avoiding losers is every bit as important as picking winners; one of the reasons MM Active Growth Portfolio is enjoying another solid year is that we’ve avoided 9 of the 10 names altogether while only enduring part of Corporate Travel’s (CTD) -33% decline so far this year.
We are less than halfway into June, and Europe has already elevated volatility across equity markets following a rate cut by the ECB and looming elections in the UK and France, where, in both cases, the incumbent party is in real danger of being ousted. There is an old saying that when the Dow sneezes, the ASX catches a cold; however, in the current market environment, the ASX is far more correlated to European stocks on a day-to-day basis, although, unfortunately, we have been underperforming both regions so far this year.
Equity markets hate uncertainty, which was illustrated overnight by French CAC’s initial 2.4% plunge following Macron's surprise announcement. Our underlying concern is whether stocks can maintain their upside momentum, with political and economic uncertainty increasing almost by the week—perhaps we are set for six months of ongoing stock and sector rotation.
The FANG acronym has lost its popularity through 2024 as the “Magnificent Seven” and “Super Six” are more eye-catching and useful for clicks in today's digital world. However, this index has continued to power to fresh all-time highs along with the NASDAQ, and while under the hood, not all stocks will move as one, the upside momentum of the index remains impressive.
The US Tech Sector surged to fresh all-time highs overnight, led by a 5.2% surge by Nvidia (NVDA US), the shining light. At the close, the $US3 trillion dollar AI behemoth had a larger market cap than Apple Inc (AAPL US), illustrating perfectly how things change in this rapidly evolving sector. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” should really be the “Super Six”, with Tesla (TSLA US) down 30% year-to-date, having themselves evolved and performed very differently over the last year, hence our consideration of where MM should be invested across the influential space.
Weakness across European indices has started to weigh on global markets ahead of this week's European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, reducing the main refinancing rate to 4.25%, the marginal lending rate to 4.50%, and the deposit rate to 3.75%. This will be the first cut in many years although Lagarde may have started to wish she hadn’t been so clear with her messaging for a cut in June. The question being asked is what comes next after this historic pivot.
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