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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 4.61 Fair value 5.64 One-star price 6.90
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 29 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (4.61) to the one-star price (6.90).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 6.29 |
| Price - 12 month high | 6.89 |
| Price - 12 month low | 5.00 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 0.57 |
| Market capitalization | 1,923.63 |
| 12 Month High price date | 21 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 12 MAY 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 0.62 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.13% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 1.13% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 12.32% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -1.72% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 15.41% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 3.80% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 0.96% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.178 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.178 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.224 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 12.296 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 12.296 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.262 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.262 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.742 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 1.742 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.437 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.437 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.420 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.420 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.145 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.651 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.179 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.179 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.179 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.063 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 35.34 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 28.06 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 0.51 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 3.61 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 99.31 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 14.98 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.93 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 242.22 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 33.15 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 408.60 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 338.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.10% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.34% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.31% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 19.50 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 45.31% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 47.29% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 46.03% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 47.94% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 19.50 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 3,785.50 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 3,785.50 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 200.50 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 200.50 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 74.70 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 74.70 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 54.80 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 54.80 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 77.50 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 69.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.22 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 1.45% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 1.45% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 2.84% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 2.84% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 1.97% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 1.97% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 1.90% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | -0.71% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 1.03% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 0.52% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | -0.78% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 2.57% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 2.57% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.51% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 5.51% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | -0.87% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | -1.86% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 12.71% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -8.13% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 9.14% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 9.41% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 3.78% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -4.77% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 27.81% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 2.12% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Australian dairy producer BGA soared +9.4% on Thursday, enjoying a rare day as the main board's top-performing stock. The stock hit a 52-week high in the process, following a swing back into profitability in fiscal 2024 and forecasted EBITDA for FY25 that was ~1% ahead of expectations.
Last week, BGA surged to its highest level in 20-months after its earnings beat estimates last week – the stock has now bounced over 75% from its late 2023 low.
Dairy foods business BGA is trading more than 60% below its dizzy heights back in 2018 as dairy processing remains an industry under pressure. Yet, from a valuation perspective, the stock is still not exciting given the trajectory of earnings.
Bega Cheese operates the processing, manufacturing, and distribution of dairy and grocery products but it’s another example of how the sectors struggled over recent years with the stock down around 50% from its 2021 high. Bega recently delivered 1H23 EBITDA of A$75mn slightly lower than consensus primarily due to margins contracting to their lowest in the company’s history, not a great record to break.
Dairy business BGA has fallen -38% year-to-date not helped by a downgrade by CLSA back in mid-October, another example of a trend following through so far this year. The stock is not overly cheap trading on a 26.3x for 2023 but its estimated 3.4% yield over the next 12 months should limit further downside. • We think BGA can squeeze up over 15% into Christmas but it’s unlikely to find itself in an MM portfolio.
BGA fell another -4.9% yesterday taking its decline this year to over -40%, another perfect example of stocks following through in both directions this year. Sentiment towards the stock wasn’t helped on Monday by a downgrade from CLSA to reduce.
BGA +11.76%%: it was hardly an unblemished report from Bega, however, the dairy products company has performed well despite a number of headwinds facing the business over the last 12 months. EBITDA jumped 27% despite higher mil costs, supply chain disruptions and flooding impacting performance throughout the year, meeting analyst expectations. They also...
BGA made fresh 8-year lows in July totally ignoring the markets euphoric rally, the company delivered a profit downgrade to the tune of ~9% caused by rising Victorian milk prices, at MM we were surprised that anyone could have expected a different outcome, all they had to do was pop into Coles or Woolies! What’s particularly weighing on the stock is heavy downgrades...
BGA was thumped -8.5% yesterday after delivering a profit warning caused by rising Victorian milk prices – the downgrade equated to ~8.6% basically exactly what the stock fell. There’s plenty of conjecture in the press overnight around how this news may have been leaked earlier allowing 3 brokers to downgrade the stock on June 20th however from our perspective all we care about is whether BGA is now presenting good value as it plunges towards $3.
BGA has been on our radar of late as it pushes towards fresh 4-month highs plus considering its AGM was in October it’s unlikely that any bad news is lurking around the corner. The dairy business has been growing revenue encouragingly even while the disrupted Diagou channel has seen a softening of demand for its infant formula. Following the successful...
MM is cautiously bullish towards BGA
MM likes BGA around $4
MM is neutral to cautiously bullish on BGA
MM is neutral on BGA around $3.50
MM likes BGA for a squeeze up above $4
MM has no interest in BGA
MM is neutral BGA
MM can see value in BGA around $3
MM doesn’t see any reason to rush into BGA
MM likes BGA around $5.70
Bega Group is an Australia-based dairy processor and food manufacturer of well-known brands including Bega Cheese and Vegemite. Bega operates two segments: The branded segment produces consumer packaged goods primarily sold through the supermarket and foodservice channels, while the bulk segment produces commodity dairy ingredients primarily sold through the business-to-business channel.
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