Yesterday, we heard the minutes of the RBA’s April board meeting, which was notably held two days before “Liberation Day”. The very clear message at the time was they were looking to cut interest rates in May.
The ASX200 surged over 100 points on Monday, taking a positive lead after President Trump paused import duties on various consumer electronics. However, he warned markets on Sunday that tariffs are still coming in a social media post shortly after he finished his Sunday golf game: “NOBODY is getting off the hook”.
President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be exempted from his reciprocal tariffs. This represents a significant reprieve for global technology manufacturers, including Apple (AAPL US) and Nvidia (NVDA US), whose shares had plunged over 25% at their worst since late March.
The ASX 200 surged +4.5% on Thursday, delivering its best day since the GFC. At the opening bell, 199 of the ASX200 were higher, and even though the market drifted slightly from its euphoria-driven open by the end of the day, 199 stocks still closed higher.
The ASX 200 endured another volatile and ultimately brutal session on Wednesday, ending down 1.8%, as Trump’s tariffs came into force. Trump’s latest tariffs pushed levies imposed on China this year to as high as 104%, along with import taxes on roughly 60 trading partners that ran trade surpluses with the US.
The ASX200 closed up more than 2% on Tuesday, with the market enjoying broad-based buying. All 11 major sectors advanced, led by Tech, while the defensives were the laggards. In yesterday's report, we discussed volatility, but a few subscribers who liked the piece felt it was lost being too far into the daily missive; hence, here’s a follow-up summary, arguably even more pertinent after the last 24 hours.
The ASX200 fell another 4.2% on Monday, its largest one-day drop since 2020, as concerns continue to escalate that Trump's aggressive tariff policies will send the world into recession. The moves across a range of financial markets on Monday were pricing in a recession as “un fait accompli”, especially in the morning.
In the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” and predicted a new “golden age” in America – financial markets do not agree. On Friday night, he compounded market fears by stating that his decision to hike US tariffs to their highest levels in over a century would not change, despite sparking a global market meltdown.
The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Thursday, a win compared to the melt-down unfolding across global markets. The key takeaway from Trump's much-discussed global tariffs is that the US now risks a recession this year, and inflation could surge, a worrying combination for equities. The only positive on the day was that markets have increased bets that the Fed will cut rates further through 2025 despite the possible uptick in inflation. Credit markets are now pricing in nearly four rate cuts by the Fed into Christmas. Ironically, US equities and the dollar bore some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy, which is certainly understandable – tariffs are ultimately bad for growth, the US looks to have kicked an own goal, for now at least.
After promising so much to make “America Wealthy Again.” Donald Trump walked out into the Rose Garden of the White House with all the world watching, an environment he revelled in. Markets have been on edge for weeks, anticipating the likely imposition of worldwide tariffs. At 7 am AEST, US indices ended up strongly ahead of Trump's “Liberation Day” speech, in the hope that the blanket of uncertainty would be lifted by the speech he proudly titled “The Declaration of Economic Independence Day.”
The ASX200 surged over 100 points on Monday, taking a positive lead after President Trump paused import duties on various consumer electronics. However, he warned markets on Sunday that tariffs are still coming in a social media post shortly after he finished his Sunday golf game: “NOBODY is getting off the hook”.
President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be exempted from his reciprocal tariffs. This represents a significant reprieve for global technology manufacturers, including Apple (AAPL US) and Nvidia (NVDA US), whose shares had plunged over 25% at their worst since late March.
The ASX 200 surged +4.5% on Thursday, delivering its best day since the GFC. At the opening bell, 199 of the ASX200 were higher, and even though the market drifted slightly from its euphoria-driven open by the end of the day, 199 stocks still closed higher.
The ASX 200 endured another volatile and ultimately brutal session on Wednesday, ending down 1.8%, as Trump’s tariffs came into force. Trump’s latest tariffs pushed levies imposed on China this year to as high as 104%, along with import taxes on roughly 60 trading partners that ran trade surpluses with the US.
The ASX200 closed up more than 2% on Tuesday, with the market enjoying broad-based buying. All 11 major sectors advanced, led by Tech, while the defensives were the laggards. In yesterday's report, we discussed volatility, but a few subscribers who liked the piece felt it was lost being too far into the daily missive; hence, here’s a follow-up summary, arguably even more pertinent after the last 24 hours.
The ASX200 fell another 4.2% on Monday, its largest one-day drop since 2020, as concerns continue to escalate that Trump's aggressive tariff policies will send the world into recession. The moves across a range of financial markets on Monday were pricing in a recession as “un fait accompli”, especially in the morning.
In the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump declared, “Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country” and predicted a new “golden age” in America – financial markets do not agree. On Friday night, he compounded market fears by stating that his decision to hike US tariffs to their highest levels in over a century would not change, despite sparking a global market meltdown.
The ASX 200 fell 0.9% on Thursday, a win compared to the melt-down unfolding across global markets. The key takeaway from Trump's much-discussed global tariffs is that the US now risks a recession this year, and inflation could surge, a worrying combination for equities. The only positive on the day was that markets have increased bets that the Fed will cut rates further through 2025 despite the possible uptick in inflation. Credit markets are now pricing in nearly four rate cuts by the Fed into Christmas. Ironically, US equities and the dollar bore some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will stunt the American economy, which is certainly understandable – tariffs are ultimately bad for growth, the US looks to have kicked an own goal, for now at least.
After promising so much to make “America Wealthy Again.” Donald Trump walked out into the Rose Garden of the White House with all the world watching, an environment he revelled in. Markets have been on edge for weeks, anticipating the likely imposition of worldwide tariffs. At 7 am AEST, US indices ended up strongly ahead of Trump's “Liberation Day” speech, in the hope that the blanket of uncertainty would be lifted by the speech he proudly titled “The Declaration of Economic Independence Day.”
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