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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is iron ore creating a “peak performance” scenario for RIO, BHP etc

The ASX200 struggled yesterday in the face of broad based selling which ended with 70% of stocks closing lower by the end of the session. On the sector level the unusual combination of IT & Energy stocks bore the brunt of the selling although the big 3 of CBA, CSL and BHP falling an average of -1.3% had the largest impact on the underlying index. If recent history repeats itself we will be making fresh all-time highs by the start of August but Wednesdays weakness...
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China swings the “Big Brother” stick.

The ASX200 powered to fresh all-time highs yesterday even while China regulators hammered certain pockets of the market and the COVID numbers out of Sydney continue to worsen by the day. Overnight the Australian Financial Review (AFR) was flagging another month of lockdown for Sydney but equities are just shrugging off the speculation as old news. More stocks actually fell on Tuesday but when heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and BHP Group (BHP) rally strongly...
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are Australian education stocks going to follow China’s lower?

The ASX200 closed unchanged on Monday after registering new all-time highs early in the morning only to drift lower throughout the day to ultimately close around the day’s low with almost 60% of stocks closing in the red. Volumes were reasonably low as the local market followed Asian indices and US futures down throughout the session but with no sector moving...
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Morning report

Macro Monday: “Backwardation” illustrates confidence is mixed but not stocks!

The ASX200 is poised to make fresh all-time highs this morning with good old fashioned corporate performance dictating the markets trend as opposed to short-term panic around COVID-19 and the subsequent deteriorating sentiment towards the global economic recovery. When we stand back and look at the local market since this impressive post GFC bull market started way back in March 2009 the rally by equities has been steady with a few interesting characteristics catching our eye:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Should MM follow Tesla (TSLA US) into nickel?

This weeks summed up perfectly both June & July for the ASX200, we kicked-off on Monday with one of the worst days in months leading to a test of 7200 on Tuesday morning, but by the close on Thursday these losses were well and truly in the rear view mirror as local stocks closed within only 0.3% of their all-time high, buy the dips is clearly still the winning formula.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX holds support for a 3rd time

The ASX200 again managed to hold onto its 7200 support in admirable fashion yesterday even in the face of a 725-point plunge by the Dow, the markets “buy the dips” attitude is undoubtedly working for now. However while MM is part of this core view that the bull market is alive and well our preferred scenario is we get a short sharp washout down ~4% to catch out the complacent traders / buyers because...
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks / positions MM is honing in on as volatility escalates

The ASX200 endured a tough start to this week finally closing down 62-points although it was a fair bit worse mid-morning with the index nudging the psychological negative 100-points level at its worst. Losses were relatively broad based with 76% of stocks closing in the red but it was still encouraging to see the market grind higher after its initial savage sell off. A few points caught my attention which dovetails nicely with how MM sees equities through July and August:
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Can stocks continue to ignore COVID?

The ASX200 continues to trade sideways in the face of a deteriorating COVID picture although it hasn’t actually been going anywhere since early June, well before the current Delta wave raised its head on our fair shores. Sydney registered its first case of this outbreak only 30-days ago on the 16th of June, it already feels a lot longer in the Gerrish household! As the the State and Federal Governments again dig deep to support individuals and businesses unable to work due to lockdowns optimism towards the speed of the economic recovery has waned but on the stock market level it’s only produced some rotation between sectors as opposed to core market selling.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 stocks we’re adding to our Hitlist

The ASX200 slipped lower yesterday, as we come into Friday “the song remains the same” with the local market very happy to simply rotate around the 7300 area whatever the macro / market news that crosses our screens. In what was a quiet session during an even quieter few weeks for stocks a few points did catch my attention:
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MM remains a keen buyer of stocks into pullbacks
Add To Hit List
MM is looking to low in bond yields
APX
MM would consider APX around $10
Add To Hit List
MFG
MM likes the risk / reward towards MFG ~$49
Add To Hit List
IVV
MM remains a keen buyer of US stocks into the next period of weakness
Add To Hit List
MM is bullish GOOGL medium / long term
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MM is looking for iron ore to consolidate in a broad volatile range between $US140-240/MT into 2022.
Add To Hit List
MM is now bullish the $A medium-term
Add To Hit List
RIO
MM likes RIO medium-term
Add To Hit List
BHP
MM is bullish BHP initially targeting 10-15% upside
Add To Hit List
FMG
MM is neutral / bullish FMG
Add To Hit List

Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: China swings the “Big Brother” stick.

The ASX200 powered to fresh all-time highs yesterday even while China regulators hammered certain pockets of the market and the COVID numbers out of Sydney continue to worsen by the day. Overnight the Australian Financial Review (AFR) was flagging another month of lockdown for Sydney but equities are just shrugging off the speculation as old news. More stocks actually fell on Tuesday but when heavyweights Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and BHP Group (BHP) rally strongly...

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are Australian education stocks going to follow China’s lower?

The ASX200 closed unchanged on Monday after registering new all-time highs early in the morning only to drift lower throughout the day to ultimately close around the day’s low with almost 60% of stocks closing in the red. Volumes were reasonably low as the local market followed Asian indices and US futures down throughout the session but with no sector moving...

Morning report

Macro Monday: “Backwardation” illustrates confidence is mixed but not stocks!

The ASX200 is poised to make fresh all-time highs this morning with good old fashioned corporate performance dictating the markets trend as opposed to short-term panic around COVID-19 and the subsequent deteriorating sentiment towards the global economic recovery. When we stand back and look at the local market since this impressive post GFC bull market started way back in March 2009 the rally by equities has been steady with a few interesting characteristics catching our eye:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Should MM follow Tesla (TSLA US) into nickel?

This weeks summed up perfectly both June & July for the ASX200, we kicked-off on Monday with one of the worst days in months leading to a test of 7200 on Tuesday morning, but by the close on Thursday these losses were well and truly in the rear view mirror as local stocks closed within only 0.3% of their all-time high, buy the dips is clearly still the winning formula.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX holds support for a 3rd time

The ASX200 again managed to hold onto its 7200 support in admirable fashion yesterday even in the face of a 725-point plunge by the Dow, the markets “buy the dips” attitude is undoubtedly working for now. However while MM is part of this core view that the bull market is alive and well our preferred scenario is we get a short sharp washout down ~4% to catch out the complacent traders / buyers because...

Morning report

What Matters Today: 5 stocks / positions MM is honing in on as volatility escalates

The ASX200 endured a tough start to this week finally closing down 62-points although it was a fair bit worse mid-morning with the index nudging the psychological negative 100-points level at its worst. Losses were relatively broad based with 76% of stocks closing in the red but it was still encouraging to see the market grind higher after its initial savage sell off. A few points caught my attention which dovetails nicely with how MM sees equities through July and August:

Morning report

Macro Monday: Can stocks continue to ignore COVID?

The ASX200 continues to trade sideways in the face of a deteriorating COVID picture although it hasn’t actually been going anywhere since early June, well before the current Delta wave raised its head on our fair shores. Sydney registered its first case of this outbreak only 30-days ago on the 16th of June, it already feels a lot longer in the Gerrish household! As the the State and Federal Governments again dig deep to support individuals and businesses unable to work due to lockdowns optimism towards the speed of the economic recovery has waned but on the stock market level it’s only produced some rotation between sectors as opposed to core market selling.

Morning report

What Matters Today: 3 stocks we’re adding to our Hitlist

The ASX200 slipped lower yesterday, as we come into Friday “the song remains the same” with the local market very happy to simply rotate around the 7300 area whatever the macro / market news that crosses our screens. In what was a quiet session during an even quieter few weeks for stocks a few points did catch my attention:

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