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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 9.37 Fair value 10.18 One-star price 11.05
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (9.37) to the one-star price (11.05).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4255 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 9.13 |
| Price - 12 month high | 9.36 |
| Price - 12 month low | 5.90 |
| Pricing date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 10.72 |
| Market capitalization | 29,652.17 |
| 12 Month High price date | 19 OCT 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 7 JAN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 10.49 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.22% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 17.50% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 17.96% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -1.93% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 44.46% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 47.97% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 6.41% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.251 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.225 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.276 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 1.519 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 1.531 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.823 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 4.835 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.420 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 4.424 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.530 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.348 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.863 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.641 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.308 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.814 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.252 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.226 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.252 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.226 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.102 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 27.47 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 25.61 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 4.04 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.42 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 60.35 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 9.65 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.30 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 28.04 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 12.15 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 6,131.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 5,806.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 4.01% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 3.35% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 3.37% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 757.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 46.45% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 48.13% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 45.22% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 46.82% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 334.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 4,951.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 4,990.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 2,710.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 2,652.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 1,190.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 1,019.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 818.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 734.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1,201.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 898.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.24 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 16.52% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 14.71% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 24.00% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 20.16% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 20.42% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 24.04% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 31.77% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 30.14% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 18.39% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 6.69% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 21.01% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 2.73% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 2.42% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.23% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 4.68% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 4.40% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 8.89% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 7.89% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 13.33% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | -1.35% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -14.02% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -26.34% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 6.81% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 61.70% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 31.85% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
STO +2.47%: delivered a mixed headline 1H26 result, but the underlying operational picture was better than the statutory numbers suggest, with earnings (EBITDAX) ahead of consensus, a healthy dividend and FY26 guidance maintained. The shares rallied as investors focused on improving execution at Barossa and the prospect that STO is approaching the point where major growth-project spending rolls over and debt reduction becomes the priority.
Santos has walked hand in hand with Woodside through 2026, closing up +29% year-to-date on Monday, with the stock finally appearing to have shrugged off the disappointment of an Abu Dhabi-led consortium walking away from a takeover bid (around $8.90) last September. Santos is primarily a gas and LNG producer, making it more leveraged to LNG contract pricing and Asian gas markets than the day-to-day moves in crude oil that have dominated the headlines in recent months.
Energy stocks have lagged the move in oil prices, and the reason comes down to how the market prices future earnings. The Iran conflict and disruption to Persian Gulf supply drove a sharp spike in near-term oil prices—a clear windfall for producers, but longer-dated futures moved less aggressively, even though they did rise.
STO has lagged WDS gaining just 25% compared to WDS’s +40%, with the stock struggling to fully recover from an Abu Dhabi-led consortium walking away from a takeover deal last September. Similar to WDS, we would consider STO into weakness, ideally below $7.50, only 3-5% lower, but there’s no hurry yet.
STO has followed a similar path to WDS through 2026, but with much less gusto, only gaining 32% year to date. The main issue has been the stock struggling to fully recover from an Abu Dhabi-led consortium walking away from a takeover deal last September after months of negotiations, sending the stock down more than 10% in one session.
STO has followed a similar path to WDS in the last few weeks but with much less conviction, it couldn’t even get above its 2025 high on Monday - we rarely like stocks that cannot react positively to bullish tailwinds. Outside of takeover interest, of which there has been much over recent years, it's hard to see what will meaningfully drive STO through $8, also putting it in the too-hard basket at this stage.
STO is currently “in play” following a bid from a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) and private equity firm Carlyle, the non-binding all-cash offer of $8.89 per share, which values STO Santos at approximately $30 billion, a 15% premium to yesterdays close.
STO has received a bid from Abu Dhabi National Oil (ADNOC), equivalent to $8.89/sh. The more MM reads about the offer, the greater the possibility that it might receive FIRB approval.
STO has received a bid from Abu Dhabi National Oil (ADNOC), equivalent to $8.89, a 28% premium to Friday's close - we mentioned the possibility of a STO suitor in May. At a glance, yesterday's $7.72 close looked disappointing, especially considering Santos’ board have recommended the cash offer, but there are a few hurdles still to jump:
STO +10.92%: has been bid up by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (Adnoc), via its investment unit XRG, making an all-cash $28.8 billion offer to acquire all outstanding shares at $8.89 per share - a 28% premium to Santos' last closing price.
MM remains neutral toward STO
MM is neutral towards Santos around $8
MM is neutral towards STO around $7.75
MM is cautiously bullish towards STO around $8.00
MM is neutral towards STO around $7.50
MM is cautiously bullish towards STO around $7.70
MM is cautiously bullish towards STO
MM is cautiously bullish on STO ~$7.50
MM is neutral toward Santos
MM is neutral to cautiously bullish toward STO
Santos was founded in 1954. The company's name is an acronym for South Australia Northern Territory Oil Search. The first Cooper Basin gas discovery came in 1963, with initial supplies in 1969. Santos became a major enterprise, though over-reliance on the Cooper Basin, along with the Moomba field's inexorable decline, saw it struggle to maintain relevance in the first decade of the 21st century. However, the stage was set for a renaissance via conversion of coal seam gas into LNG in Queensland and conventional gas to LNG in PNG.
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