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Morning report

Macro Monday: “We can’t go up without the banks”

The ASX200 retreated over 3% last week, with the driving force behind the sell-off being the previously high-flying and influential Banks. In a rare show of weakness, the “Big Four” retreated more than 10% on average as sentiment soured towards the sector.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Step up the RBA – we hope!

It's no secret that the RBA is expected to cut rates this week, with the futures market calling it an “87% probability.” However, the accompanying rhetoric is likely to drive local stocks in the coming weeks, especially with the market looking for two additional cuts into Christmas, taking the Cash Rate to 3.6%. Local rates have sat at a restrictive 4.35% since November 2023, and we think three cuts are likely to prove too dovish; Michele Bullock's comments on Tuesday will be a classic case of the devil being in the detail.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM’s updated view on Insurance stocks after IAG’s plunge

The ASX200 ended a choppy Thursday slightly higher after registering a fresh all-time high around midday before drifting lower through the afternoon. The market is starting to feel a little tired after surging over 25% from its late 2023 low, not just on the index level but also some of its high-valuation top performers are encountering profit-taking, even in most cases after posting solid results, i.e. Pro Medicus (PME), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), IAG Insurance (IAG) and CAR Group (CAR).
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the smart money switching out of CSL?

The ASX200 felt like a “one trick pony” on Wednesday, following CBA’s strong result, as the index's largest company led the “Big Four Banks” to an average gain of +1.5% as NAB and WBC joined CBA in making fresh all-time highs, contributing well over half of the day 51-point advance.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Golds soars & lithium falls, what’s new!

The ASX200 surrendered early gains on Tuesday to end the session up just 1 point, with CSL the primary weight on the index and healthcare sector. The biotech’s 5% fall took almost 22 points off the index, offsetting gains elsewhere helped by several positive earnings results across the market.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can our miners follow Chinese stocks higher?

The ASX200 slipped -0.3% on Monday, a solid performance considering the weakness on overseas bourses on Friday night. The defensive end of town supported the local index, with the consumer staples, utilities and healthcare sectors the only three to advance, while tech spent a rare day in the naughty corner, falling 1.4%.
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MM remain neutral toward the ASX200
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IVV
MM remains neutral towards US stock’s short-term
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MM is neutral toward the FANG stocks
IEU
MM is cautiously bullish towards European stocks
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MM is bullish about the Chinese Tech Sector
IZZ
MM remains bullish on Chinese stocks
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MM is cautiously bullish on the Australian 3s (yields lower)
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MM is neutral to cautiously bullish on German Bunds (yields lower)
OOO
MM is neutral toward crude oil
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MM is cautiously bullish about iron ore
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MM is neutral towards Aluminium ~$US2700
USD
MM remains neutral towards the $US short-term
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MM are cautiously bullish on the Yen (bearish USDJPY below) medium/long term
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IEU
Trade Idea: Buy the IEU ETF around 87.25 with stops under 85
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VGS
MM remains bullish on equities this year but in a cautious manner
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Step up the RBA – we hope!

It's no secret that the RBA is expected to cut rates this week, with the futures market calling it an “87% probability.” However, the accompanying rhetoric is likely to drive local stocks in the coming weeks, especially with the market looking for two additional cuts into Christmas, taking the Cash Rate to 3.6%. Local rates have sat at a restrictive 4.35% since November 2023, and we think three cuts are likely to prove too dovish; Michele Bullock's comments on Tuesday will be a classic case of the devil being in the detail.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: MM’s updated view on Insurance stocks after IAG’s plunge

The ASX200 ended a choppy Thursday slightly higher after registering a fresh all-time high around midday before drifting lower through the afternoon. The market is starting to feel a little tired after surging over 25% from its late 2023 low, not just on the index level but also some of its high-valuation top performers are encountering profit-taking, even in most cases after posting solid results, i.e. Pro Medicus (PME), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), IAG Insurance (IAG) and CAR Group (CAR).

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is the smart money switching out of CSL?

The ASX200 felt like a “one trick pony” on Wednesday, following CBA’s strong result, as the index's largest company led the “Big Four Banks” to an average gain of +1.5% as NAB and WBC joined CBA in making fresh all-time highs, contributing well over half of the day 51-point advance.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Golds soars & lithium falls, what’s new!

The ASX200 surrendered early gains on Tuesday to end the session up just 1 point, with CSL the primary weight on the index and healthcare sector. The biotech’s 5% fall took almost 22 points off the index, offsetting gains elsewhere helped by several positive earnings results across the market.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can our miners follow Chinese stocks higher?

The ASX200 slipped -0.3% on Monday, a solid performance considering the weakness on overseas bourses on Friday night. The defensive end of town supported the local index, with the consumer staples, utilities and healthcare sectors the only three to advance, while tech spent a rare day in the naughty corner, falling 1.4%.

what matters today Market Matters
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