Bonds have been driving stocks in 2024, and markets continue to look for rate cuts moving forward. The futures market has pushed back the timing of these well into 2025, while the risks of another hike this year have even crept back into the current pricing. However, a quick glance at the RBA Cash rate since the new millennium shows that after periods of major interest rate adjustment, we often see prolonged periods of no change, i.e. many, many months with a cash rate of 4.35% would not surprise. If today’s AFR story is on point and we won’t see rate cuts until next Christmas, the valuation of some areas of the ASX200 does feel rich.