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US equities endured a tough session on Thursday night as a new chapter was turned with rate cuts fully built into markets but fears of a recession are gaining momentum. The concept of a ‘hard landing’ has felt like a dormant beast, with bad economic news being welcomed by stocks because it stoked optimism about rate cuts; this has now changed, with traders now scarred that the Fed have been too slow cutting rates and a tougher economic reality is a real possibility. The bond market is already telling us that Jerome Powell et al. may be behind the curve. Not all stocks felt the selling, with Meta Platforms (META US) closing up +4.8% on stronger-than-expected 2nd quarter results and upbeat guidance.

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Latest Reports

Morning report

Macro Monday: Should we be concerned about high valuations?

We are now seven weeks into FY26, and global markets are trading at or near all-time highs. The ASX 200, including dividends, is up 4.7%, supported by a 13.7% rally in Resources and gains of more than 8% from Healthcare, Utilities, and Energy.

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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: ASX ends the week at a fresh high as results season heats up

A strong end to the week saw the ASX200 advance 1.5%, breaking to new all-time highs above 8,900. It was only a little over four months ago that the ASX was trading below 7,200, clouded by an aggressive tariff regime implemented by the president of the world’s largest economy. While the tariff situation remains a work in progress, with a deal yet to be signed between China and the US, it has quickly faded from headlines. Deals with other countries suggest the same will happen between the two superpowers, and our view at the time—that huge tariffs simply didn’t work as policy and therefore had to be a strategy—appears to be playing out.

Morning report

ETF Friday: A deep dive into our Core ETF Portfolio, and how it can be used

Two of the most widely held stocks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Telstra (TLS), both confirmed this week that crowded/momentum trades can be problematic. Meeting earnings expectations when the market is positioned for an upside surprise is simply not good enough.

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Afternoon report

The Match Out: WBC quarterly fuels Bank rally as ASX hits fresh intra-day high

The ASX hit new intra day highs today, driven by strong gains in Financials and Utilities after upbeat earnings results from Westpac and Origin. Bank stocks followed the WBC result up with CBA the weakest link for a second straight session. Employment data this morning eased concerns of a weakening job market and took some fuel off the fire for a rate cut at next month’s RBA meeting.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is yesterday’s jump a “Get out of Jail Free card” in lithium stocks?

The ASX200 closed up +0.4% on Monday, driven to new highs by a resources sector enjoying a new lease of life; it's already surged +6.7% so far in August. The lithium stocks led the charge following the news that CATL shut down one of the world's largest mines, but on the index level, it was BHP that added the most points, around 30% of the day's 38-point gain. Outside of the gold stocks, the Materials Sector was hot, from lithium to copper, and iron ore.

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