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A200
MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 9100
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NDQ
MM remains bullish towards the NASDAQ around 30,000
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GGOV US
MM is neutral towards US 30-year bonds
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JBH
MM is neutral towards JBH around $72
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HVN
MM is neutral towards HVN, at best, around $4.60
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LOV
MM is neutral/negative towards LOV around $24
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WES
MM is neutral towards WES around $84
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SUL
MM is neutral towards SUL around $12
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: What If the Cracks in the AI Trade Spread?

The ASX 200 did well to eke out a modest gain on Monday despite a steady stream of negative news and weakness across global equity markets. Gains in the banks almost exactly offset weakness in the miners as the news continued to weigh on the previously high-flying sector

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Rising bond yields send the ASX 200 down to 10-week lows

The ASX 200 fell 2.9% last week, extending the month's decline to 3.7% - we did warn members that September is the historically weakest month of the year! For reference, the worst-performing September of the last decade was 2022, when bond yields also surged higher, and that year the index closed down 7.3%.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ETFs to consider if the ASX follows the 2022/2026 road map

The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, falling more than 1% as broad-based selling left just 20% of the main board in positive territory. However, the market did recover 77 points from its intraday low, trimming around 45% of the day’s decline by the close. Yesterday was the local market’s third consecutive decline, with a fourth likely today, and its largest daily fall in more than three months.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX drops sharply; risk off dominates as yields and oil tick higher

The ASX took a punch today, but importantly, it got back off the canvas. The index was down as much as 1.8% around midday, its worst intraday fall since March, before buyers finally emerged and trimmed almost half of the session’s worst losses. It was still a third consecutive decline and all 11 sectors finished lower, but the late recovery was the first sign in a few sessions that the market is prepared to lean into weakness (at the right price).

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Could the BOJ & US Treasury trigger the next ASX rotation?

The ASX 200 extended September's pullback by another -0.1% on Wednesday despite a barnstorming session for the heavyweight copper miners - BHP Group (+3.3%), Sandfire (+2%) and RIO (+1.9%). However, broad-based weakness, which saw over 60% of the main board retreat, with standout selling in the CBA (-2.5%) enough to drag the index under 8900. Another strong move in oil prices, which rallied over 2% during local trade, was enough to keep buyers on the sidelines as it increasingly feels like the US has lost control of events in the Straits of Hormuz. We defer back to a comment in yesterday's report:

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX flat as BHP and energy offset bank and tech weakness; Austal jumps on Wildcat counterbid

The ASX went on a round trip today, rising early, giving it all back and trading lower through to midday before popping in the afternoon, closing almost flat for the session. The headline index masked another fairly weak session underneath, with the banks and Healthcare under pressure while Energy and Materials did most of the heavy lifting with the Big Australian and Rio keeping the index afloat accounting for +30pts of gain between the two heavyweights.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “reverse wealth effect” is weighing on the ASX

September is living up to its seasonally weak reputation, with the ASX 200 falling another 1% on Tuesday to close at a fresh six-week low. Local stocks endured their worst session in three months as selling swept across the market, as more than 65% of the main board closed lower, with the banks doing the most damage, accounting for roughly half of the index’s decline.

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The ASX 200 tried to reverse higher into lunchtime on Monday, only for steady, targeted selling throughout the afternoon to drag the index down by ~0.5%. On the stock & sector level, it was almost a carbon copy of August so far, with the miners again attempting to prop up an index weighed down by the flow-on effects of a softening housing market, where activity has ground to a near standstill since the May Budget. Consumer Discretionary, which we’ll revisit later, led the sell-off, falling 3%, while Financials and Real Estate also came under pressure, both declining more than 1%.

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