HomeReportsWhat Matters Today: Evaluating the technical picture…
In the words of Led Zeppelin “the song remains the same” as yet again when the ASX200 threatens to test its all-time high the selling emerges – it’s only been 4-weeks of rotation between 7000 and 7100 but it certainly feels longer.
The ASX200 climbed today, lifted by broad-based gains as global sentiment improved on renewed optimism around a potential US–China trade deal and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this week.
Many economists have long warned that Trump’s tariffs would ignite a sharp rise in inflation, but that threat continues to be a dog that won’t bark. On Friday, another nail was driven into the hawks’ coffin as US inflation data came in softer than expected. Wall Street surged to new record highs, with the cooler print reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will deliver four to five rate cuts over the next year, starting with a 0.25% move this week.
The ASX200 ended the week up +0.3% with 8 of the main 11 sectors advancing. It was another week that saw investors “buy dips” while preferring to rotate between stocks/sectors as opposed to selling the market per se. Momentum traders had a week to forget with precious metals stocks getting whacked as gold and silver experienced their worst day in more than a decade, and even on Friday, gold traded in a $US100/oz range, although it again held support ~$US4,000.
The ASX eased into the weekend as investors stayed cautious ahead of next week’s high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, while news of the abrupt termination of US-Canada trade talks also added some complexity to the mix.
The ASX 200 recovered from early losses to close marginally higher on Thursday as “buy the dip” again prevailed. At its worst, the index was down over 40-points before reversing higher in the late morning with the miners and energy names improving throughout the day, ultimately lifting the market into positive territory. Energy stocks rallied more than +3% after US sanctions on Russian oil lifted crude prices, aided by the Woodside gas deal, which provided a springboard for the sector's biggest company.
The ASX clawed back early losses this afternoon, closing marginally higher as a sharp rally in energy stocks offset weakness across technology and resources. Gold stocks bounced back after yesterday’s aggressive sell-off, even as spot gold traded mildly lower.
The ASX200 fell -0.7% on Wednesday, with volatility resurfacing in a session that saw stocks falling alongside gold and cryptocurrencies. . It was a day in which assets favoured by retail momentum traders bore the worst losses, among them precious metals, crypto and companies in the artificial-intelligence space.
Stocks slipped back from record highs today as the spectacular rally in precious metals came unstuck, sending gold tumbling by the most in more than a decade. Rare Earth stocks also pulled back after a strong period- profit taking swept across the sector, while Uranium stocks and broader commodities were also knocked lower.
The ASX200 continued to advance in a “three steps forward, two back” fashion on Tuesday, posting a new all-time high before fading into the close. Gains were broad-based, with over 60% of the main board rising and 10 out of the 11 main sectors, with only the defensive facing consumer staples slipping lower.
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