The ASX200 finished a choppy week up +1%, a solid result given the index gapped down ~2% on Monday. Volatility was elevated, with three sessions posting 100-point intraday swings—moves that would typically define a month. Geopolitics remain front of mind: the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities on Friday, prompting retaliation across the Persian Gulf. The escalation followed President Trump's delay of a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain on edge, with Brent Crude above $US113 the key focus, the prolonged conflict is increasing the risk of more meaningful damage to the global economy.
The ASX 200 snapped a three-week losing streak, though there was little conviction around the local market today, with the index slipping mildly lower by the close – although it did recover ~50 points from the morning low as US Futures traded up.
The ASX 200 drifted on Thursday to close down 0.1%, not a verb we’ve used often in March, let's hope it's not the calm before the storm. Investors have embraced the initial efforts by the Trump Administration to engineer a deal with Iran to form a truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran isn’t yet playing ball as they continue to exchange missiles with Israel. The news crossing the wires couldn’t be more contradictory.
The ASX edged lower after yesterday’s strong rally, with investors again taking cues from the evolving Iran conflict and the knock-on impact on energy markets. While the index finished little changed overall, the session was marked by steady intraday swings.
The ASX 200 rallied 155 points (+1.85%) on Wednesday, its strongest session in two months, driven by an improving tone in the Middle East conflict and a softer-than-expected CPI print. The Middle East remains the key driver, but better than feared economic data always helps.
The ASX enjoyed a strong rebound today, bouncing sharply as investors latched onto two positives at once. Brent crude rolled over in Asian trade after the US President purportedly presented Iran with a 15-point plan to end the conflict, helping to calm nerves. At the same time, the February CPI print came in a touch softer than feared, giving the market some confidence that domestic inflation pressures are easing.
The ASX200 managed to close up +0.2% on Tuesday, but it wasn’t pretty with the index ending the session more than 100 points below its early morning high. The issue was the credibility of President Trump's claims that talks are underway to end the conflict with Iran, where reports of such talks were called “Fake News.” The attacks continue, although Trump has postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran.
The ASX finished modestly higher but well off its intraday highs after an early relief rally faded as the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remained fluid. The index surged more than +130pts at the open, briefly pushing 8500, before momentum cooled as US futures slipped gradually through the day.
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