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Morning report

Fund Friday: Private Credit – Metrics et al.

The ASX 200 fell away on Thursday afternoon to close down -0.8%, with weakness in the influential banks and heavyweight miners again driving the index lower while further bargain hunting was evident in the rate-sensitive end of town, although not with any great gusto as would be expected when the index is tumbling toward a fresh 4-month low.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing the 5 new entrants to the ASX 200

The ASX 200 failed to hold onto its early gains on Wednesday ultimately ending the session down -0.1%, smack in the middle of the day’s trading range, with the influential banks and miners dragging the index lower despite over 60% of the main board closing higher. The rate-sensitive stocks again caught our eye bucking the trend with all major retailers and real estate stocks outperforming the broader index.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Consumer confidence tests its 30-year low

The ASX advanced +0.6% on Tuesday on relatively broad based gains with over 60% of the main board closing higher. However, it was the rare combination of strength in both materials and financials that dragged the index higher, contributing ~86% of the days advance from a points perspective. What caught our eye was some buying coming back into some of the consumer facing stocks, ironically just as consumer confidence data plunged towards a 30-year low - there’s nothing quite like the combination of rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures to squeeze everyday Australians, particularly when the holy grail of household wealth - property prices, are falling at the same time.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX continues its bounce as REITs and Materials drive gains

The ASX moved higher for a third straight session with some confidence returning to the market. The rally was driven by a very different mix of stocks to what we saw on Wall Street overnight, with Real Estate leading despite bond-yields remaining elevated, and Materials also looking strong. Technology was the only significant detractor, failing to mirror the move seen overnight in the US as the tech-focused Nasdaq surged to new all-time highs.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday, on a Tuesday: Bond yields continue to weigh on stocks

The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Has the ASX 200 found its low?

The ASX 200 finished a volatile week up +0.2%, almost as if Thursdays ~2% plunge to fresh four month lows didn’t exist. The weekly change masked significant volatility as investors digested the RBA’s fourth rate hike of 2026 alongside softer-than-expected inflation data. Technology was the standout sector, surging 7.3%, while the dominant theme remained interest rates, with the cash rate reaching a 15-year high of 4.6%, although softer CPI and Governor Bullock’s subsequent comments tempered expectations for further tightening.

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