Portfolio Positioning: History tells us to consider buying in the next fortnight

The ASX200 was hammered another -3.6% yesterday with well over 90% of the main board closing in the red, we may have bounced from support below 6600 but the market clearly remains very nervous. Recent weeks have certainly reinforced the old saying “sell in May & go away”, probably more effectively than all but the most pessimistic bears were expecting. During periods of uncertainty and volatility its important to maintain a degree of perspective even if feel like running for the hills, a move that history tells us is not a prudent course of action for long-term investors.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Weekend report 21/02/2026 10:11

Weekend Q&A: Markets hang around all-time highs as Trump’s tariffs are thrown into limbo

It was another bruising but ultimately constructive week for Australian equities, with the ASX200 finishing higher and holding close to all-time highs despite wild stock-level volatility as reporting season met the ongoing AI debate head-on. The index was again pulled in different directions under the surface, with sharp rotations between sectors and increasingly binary outcomes on earnings day. Strong results were rewarded aggressively, while any hint of disappointment was met with little mercy.

Afternoon report 20/02/2026 17:06

The Match Out: ASX holds steady near highs, QBE lifts on bumper result

The ASX slipped modestly today, though still managed a solid +1.84% gain over the week. A bounce from the low of the day was sustained as buyers stepped in through the session, despite tensions in the Middle East. Index moves will continue to hinge on single stock results, though the magnitude of moves likely fades given the heavyweight stocks have now come and gone this reporting season.

Morning report 20/02/2026 09:22

ETF Friday: Looking at Energy ETFs as Oil breaks above $US70/barrel

The ASX 200 posted a new intra-day high on Thursday before slipping into the close, ending a strong day up 79 points, or 0.9%. As reporting season gathers pace, yesterday’s session delivered another round of outsized moves from companies both beating and missing expectations.

Afternoon report 19/02/2026 17:28

The Match Out: ASX hits new all-time high amid a flurry of earnings reports

The ASX rallied today, hitting a new all-time high at 9118 (+3pts above the Oct high) before tapering off into the afternoon. Still, its longest winning streak in more than a month, corresponding with one of the busiest days on the reporting calendar. More beats than misses, and solid overall, but still a few landmines to navigate.

Morning report 19/02/2026 09:46

What Matters Today: Delving into this month’s Bank of America Fund Managers Survey

The ASX 200 rallied for a 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday, closing back above the psychological 9000 level courtesy of a 4% rally by NAB following another solid earnings update from a “Big Four” bank.

Afternoon report 18/02/2026 17:12

The Match Out: ASX 200 breaks back through 9000, Tech & Property rally

The ASX pushed higher for a third straight session, with financials and technology doing the heavy lifting as reporting season continued to deliver outsized single-stock moves.

Morning report 18/02/2026 09:49

Portfolio Positioning: CBA last week, BHP yesterday, will things happen in threes?

The ASX200 surrendered much of its early gains on Tuesday but still ended the day up 0.2%. We almost felt like a one-stock index at times yesterday with BHP at one stage popping above $54, up more than 7%, for the first time. Even with the “Big Australian” closing back under $53, up +4.7% on the day, it still added 40-points to the ASX200, basically double its net gain on the day

Afternoon report 17/02/2026 17:15

The Match Out: BHP underpins ASX strength as reporting heats up

The ASX pushed higher in subdued trade, with BHP stealing the spotlight after a better-than-expected first-half result. Materials led the gains though it was all thanks the Big Australian’s performance, with weakness across the broader sector as commodities softened. Elsewhere, tech remained volatile, retailers were mixed and several reporting names were sharply repriced as the market continued its familiar reporting-season volatility.

Morning report 17/02/2026 09:50

What Matters Today: Are ASX Utilities stocks winners in the age of AI?

Monday saw the ASX200 experience a choppy day, which came as no surprise, with Chinese markets closed for the Lunar New Year and the US closed overnight for Presidents Day - it’s the year of the horse in China, which has a bullish feel to it, being associated with energy, independence and drive.

Afternoon report 16/02/2026 17:21

The Match Out: Tech rebounds, miners slide as ASX crawls higher

The ASX edged higher in a choppy session, with technology rebounding strongly, helping offset heavy selling across the mining giants and some profit-taking in the banks. With US markets closed for a public holiday tonight and China shut for Lunar New Year, local earnings season and bargain hunting dominated the tape, leaving the market grinding higher but lacking clear direction.