US stocks rose on Tuesday, led by semiconductor stocks, as investors looked through the latest developments in the Iran conflict and shifted their focus to a solid start to the US earnings season. Industrial giant 3M jumped more than 7% after delivering a stronger-than-expected second-quarter result, while General Motors gained nearly 5% after beating earnings and revenue forecasts. The reporting season has begun strongly, with almost 88% of the 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating earnings expectations. Attention now turns to results from Alphabet, IBM and Tesla later this week.
Another session where the ASX was hit early before buyers stepped in, with the index recovering around 60 points from its two-week low to finish marginally higher. Technology and gold stocks led the rebound as investors bought the dip following recent weakness, while softer oil prices helped ease some concerns around inflation and the outlook for US interest rates.
Brent crude eased below US$89/barrel after rising almost 6% over the previous two sessions, while gold recovered toward US$4,050/oz. The improvement in offshore technology sentiment also helped, with US futures turning higher and Asian chip stocks rebounding after the sharp sell-off triggered by concerns around Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model.
The lithium trade has lost its mojo in the last few months, but we believe the demand side of the equation remains healthy for lithium as battery energy storage emerges as a 2nd pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs, driven by AI data centres and rising global investment in storage.
As we flagged in June, lithium supply is continuing to grow, with analysts divided on when the market will return to deficit—some expect 2026–27, while others don't see it until 2030. At MM, we remain bullish on the long-term structural drivers supporting spodumene and believe prices can ultimately move well above their 2026 highs. However, after the sector's strong gains over the past 12 months, this current pullback is understandable.
Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:
The ASX 200 finished a volatile week virtually unchanged, holding the key 8,800 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions and a near-20% plunge in semiconductor stocks. The broader tone turned “risk-off” late in the week, with the miners the main weight on the index on a combination of renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and disappointing trading updates from the likes of BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN).
The ASX was lower today with a sharp sell-off across gold, copper and lithium stocks overwhelming solid gains in energy, utilities and communications. The index recovered from its session low but still ended the week marginally lower as renewed fighting in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on risk appetite.
July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.
The ASX 200 finished essentially flat today, with strength across financials, communications and consumer discretionary offset by sharp weakness in materials and energy. The market recovered from earlier losses but struggled to make headway as BHP reversed much of Wednesday’s rally and oil-exposed names continued to give back recent gains.
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