HomeReportsMacro Monday (on Tuesday): Japan becomes the new market…
Japan’s bond market has rattled global financial markets several times in recent years, and risks appear to be resurfacing. The most memorable yen carry-trade unwind since COVID started after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2024. The BOJ’s first rate hike came in March 2024, when it ended negative interest rates and lifted the policy rate to just 0–0.1%.
Monday saw the ASX200 experience a choppy day, which came as no surprise, with Chinese markets closed for the Lunar New Year and the US closed overnight for Presidents Day - it’s the year of the horse in China, which has a bullish feel to it, being associated with energy, independence and drive.
The ASX edged higher in a choppy session, with technology rebounding strongly, helping offset heavy selling across the mining giants and some profit-taking in the banks. With US markets closed for a public holiday tonight and China shut for Lunar New Year, local earnings season and bargain hunting dominated the tape, leaving the market grinding higher but lacking clear direction.
AI is increasingly impacting stocks and financial markets as a whole. Recent weeks have seen capitulation-style selling wash through some sectors, with investors fearing AI disruption is rewriting business models.
It didn’t feel like it on Friday afternoon as the ASX200 plunged more than 125 points, but the index still managed to finish last week up +2.4% after one of the most violent weeks of reporting season we can remember - 10% swings in either direction were almost pedestrian! The heavyweight banks and resources offset broad market weakness, led by any stocks feared to be at risk of AI disruption, with selling gathering momentum from already panic-like levels. The dominant themes were very binary in nature:
The ASX pulled back sharply today as AI-related margin fears continued to drive aggressive selling across software and high-multiple names. Despite the weak finish, the market still closed the week up ~2.4%, underpinned by a fantastic week from the banks on better-than-expected results.
The ASX 200 tested its all-time high at lunchtime yesterday before peeling away to close up just +0.3% as the dramatic polarisation across the ASX continues in earnest - already in 2026, we’ve witnessed the Tech Sector hammered by over -20% while the Materials have gained more than +12%, compounding the dramatic rotation through FY26. It's becoming almost monotonous to quote how far the major tech names have fallen day to day. However, it's hard to ignore; it felt like capitulation on Thursday, but there's already been a few chapters in that particular scary book - on the day, SiteMinder (SDR) -12.9%, Xero (XRO) -8.4%, Life360 (360) -8.3%, and Technology One (TNE) -6.9%.
The ASX pushed higher for a second straight session, flirting with fresh record highs at the 9100 level as bank earnings momentum continued to drive the index. ANZ stole the show with its best day in six years after delivering a standout quarterly profit result, and the broader financials complex stayed well bid, compounding Commonwealth Bank’s strong result yesterday.
The ASX 200 soared +1.7%, enjoying its best day since October, posting 3-month highs in the process. Rallies by the heavyweight financials and materials sectors drove the move, led by strong earnings beats from Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and James Hardie (JHX). Although 8 of the main 11 sectors closed higher, the financials dominated the day, contributing 70% of the main boards' gain following the storming performance by CBA after its 1H profit topped expectations - more on the banks later.
The ASX surged toward all-time high territory, lifted by a string of earnings beats from heavyweight banks and industrials, helping the index shake off weakness in healthcare. Financials did the heavy lifting, with Commonwealth Bank delivering its best day since 2020, while miners also provided strong support as copper and gold prices stayed elevated.
The ASX200 surrendered its early gains on Tuesday to end marginally lower after being up almost 60-points early in the session. Eight of 11 local sectors ended the session higher, as strong miners, energy, and IT stocks offset a 1.1% slump in the financial sector, with the insurers weak and bank selling gathering momentum during the day.
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