Macro Monday: Has Russia created a blow-off top in commodities?

While the awful humanitarian news continues to flow out of the Ukraine last week saw financial markets focus on the potential risks towards commodities markets and by definition global inflation if we see a prolonged conflict / economic stalemate. History tells us that higher inflation leads to rising interest rates which is a significant headwind for equities, and risk assets generally. Petrol prices have already gone crazy in Sydney, the local station has standard 95 at $2.35, I remember back in the middle of the Coronavirus panic it actually dipped under $1, that’s a clear read on inflation. We’ve all heard how commodity prices…

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 15/08/2022 17:38

The Match Out: Market higher to kick off a big week of reporting, what’s our take on Carsales (CAR)?

A positive session to kick off the new trading week, one where reporting really starts to ramp up. Property & Consumer Discretionary stocks the driving force today, clearly the outcomes being achieved here are better than feared and stocks are rallying from a low base, while Energy & Financials underperformed.

Morning report 15/08/2022 09:37

Macro Monday: Bonds & stocks aren’t drinking from the same fountain

Last week saw some inconsistencies / fascinating moves across financial markets which we believe were largely driven by investor positioning & sentiment but this might not continue if MM’s preferred scenario unfolds for bond yields. Last week was all about the US CPI and Wednesday’s number showed a much-welcomed slowdown in inflation which sent most indices soaring to their highest levels in over 3-months:

Weekend report 13/08/2022 19:40

Ask James: The ASX200 feels “tired” above 7000

The ASX200 struggled last week considering the theoretically strong tailwind from a weak US CPI print and no major blow-ups from the local reporting season, the index did manage to scale fresh 9-week highs but by Fridays close it had only managed to close up +0.2%. The Resources Sector helped keep the index in positive territory, significantly assisted by BHP’s bid for OZ Minerals (OZL), but what probably caught most investors off-guard was a more than 2% pullback by the tech & healthcare sectors even after the deceleration by the main US inflation indicator.

Afternoon report 12/08/2022 17:21

The Match Out: Market takes a backwards step after a strong week, Tech and uranium stocks cop the brunt of selling

A softer session to end a positive week for the ASX with the first full week of local reporting proving to be okay. Energy rallied back today, so too did the Telco’s while Property lost some of yesterday’s lustre.

Morning report 12/08/2022 09:37

What Matters Today: 3 stocks who report next week that could jump onto MM’s Hitlist

The ASX200 roared higher on Thursday on optimism that peak inflation is behind us but not all parts of this fascinating puzzle are currently in alignment:

Afternoon report 11/08/2022 17:13

The Match Out: ASX storms higher, Retailers & Property bask in the prospect of fewer rate hikes

The ASX opened with a bang this morning rallying off the back of a strong session in the US following signs that inflation has peaked, CPI printing 8.5% versus 8.7% expected. This is a big deal, uncontained inflation is the reason why rates have risen so aggressively and why risk assets had been sold off. Stabilisation here provides more certainty and more certainty gives confidence, and we all know the market ebbs and flows in the short term on this metric.

Morning report 11/08/2022 09:28

What Matters Today: How to best structure portfolios for the end of this hiking cycle

The ASX200 struggled on Wednesday with many traders taking a back seat ahead of last night’s important US CPI (inflation) data, the index ultimately closed down -0.5% basically at the same level we started August. Selling was broad-based with 70% of the main index closing in the red but with the influential Banking Sector closing higher, even as Commonwealth Bank (CBA) slipped -0.3%, losses were limited i.e. for fireworks to be lit under the index we generally need to see the Resources & Banks run in one direction.

Afternoon report 10/08/2022 16:58

The Match Out: ASX slides, CBA reports strong result, Weekly Video Update covering performance

The ASX weakened today ahead of the all-important inflation print in the US tonight with consensus tipping a result of +8.7% YoY. Tech fell on concerns bond yields will rally again while the Utilities which are more defensive + some are linked to CPI fared well.

Income Report: Asset allocation framework when targeting income

Alerts 10/08/2022 11:41

Trade Alerts – Various Portfolios

MM is making a number of changes across portfolios.

Morning report 10/08/2022 09:23

Portfolio Positioning: All eyes are on tonight’s US inflation data

On Friday we saw an extremely strong set of US Employment numbers increase expectations of a 75bp hike at the September FOMC meeting but tonight’s CPI and the plethora of Fed speakers enjoying the limelight in coming weeks are likely to see opinions swing between 75bp, and back towards 50bp. The markets have taken a definite shift towards a more hawkish stance since Friday and another strong CPI print could easily see US 10 years back above 3% which will pressure equities and especially the Tech Sector.