The ASX200 recovered from a weak opening on Thursday, reversing early losses to end higher, albeit just! There were two main catalysts for the recovery, from very different areas of the market.
The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
The ASX200 lost early gains on Tuesday, as tech selling cascaded around the world following SpaceX’s ~16% fall in US trade. Yesterday's sell-off in the semiconductor stocks, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, gathered momentum throughout the day, and saw the Korean Kospi close down 10%, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. both sliding more than 12%.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week's Macro Monday Report.
The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
The ASX200 lost early gains on Tuesday, as tech selling cascaded around the world following SpaceX’s ~16% fall in US trade. Yesterday's sell-off in the semiconductor stocks, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, gathered momentum throughout the day, and saw the Korean Kospi close down 10%, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. both sliding more than 12%.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week's Macro Monday Report.
The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
Verication email sent.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
!
Invalid One Time Password
Please check you entered the correct info, please also note there is a 10minute time limit on the One Time Passcode
To reset your password, enter your email address
A link to create a new password will be sent to the email address you have registered to your account.
Market Matters members receive daily market reports, real-time trade alerts, full access to 5 portfolios and dynamic company data.
Choose how you'd like to proceed:
We have a range of membership options to suit your needs and budget, why not join today and get unlimited access to the premium Market Matters service.
