28/03/2024 09:39

Global Markets

US stocks experienced a mixed session overnight, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index the standout performer, closing up +1.8% as a degree of performance rotation continues. The much-lauded “Magnificent Seven” struggled into Easter as it felt like some profit-taking was in the air, e.g. Nvidia (NVDA US) -2.5%, Netflix (NFLX US) -2.7%, and Meta Platforms (META US) -0.4%. Conversely, Merk & Co (MRK US) gave the old-fashioned index its biggest boost, gaining ~5% after the regulator approved its therapy for adults suffering from a rare lung condition. The blue-chip index is close to breaking 40,000 for the first time, and with the likes of Apple, Intel and Caterpillar also pushing ahead, it feels like a matter of time.

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28/02/2024 09:38

First Up

On Monday night the major US indices slipped lower, with the S&P500 ending the quiet session down -0.38%, but the underperforming market segment of the last two years, the small caps, managed to advance +0.6%. This trend extended overnight, with the S&P500 edging up +0.1%  while the Russell 2000 (small cap) Index rallied +1.4%. It may surprise many subscribers to know that the unheralded US small caps have advanced +25% from their October low, slightly more than the S&P500 without any of the benefits of the “Magnificent Seven”. We see no reason to fight this new area of outperformance, albeit minor, through 2024.

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27/02/2024 09:11

Global Markets

The US trod water overnight as the market braces for an avalanche of economic data and heavy Treasury and corporate bond sales as we approach month-end with about $US35bn of fresh offerings expected this week. Thursday is likely to be key this week as the Fed's favourite inflation read, the core personal consumption expenditure price index, is released, with markets expecting a strong number that will validate the Fed's recent steadying rhetoric.

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11/12/2023 09:06

Equity Indices

As subscribers know, the “Christmas Rally” doesn’t usually gather momentum until the 2nd half of the month as significant dividends start hitting investors' accounts. However, the ASX200 is doing fine so far; it’s already up +1.5% month to date. While the ASX200 can hold above 7080, our preferred scenario is the local index is heading towards its 2023 high, especially as global equities remain firm in the face of theoretically bearish news.

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04/12/2023 09:01

Equity Indices

The ASX200 is set to open firmly this morning, following in the footsteps of a solid session on Wall Street, which saw 10 out of the 11 major sectors close higher. With the miners enjoying a firm bid on Friday in Europe and the US, we could see the ASX outperform the US, especially as the Tech Sector is starting to look tired, e.g. although the NASDAQ closed up +0.3%, the majority of the “Magnificent Seven” actually ended lower.

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27/11/2023 08:53

Equity Indices

The ASX200 is set to open firmly this morning, up around +0.2%, following in the footsteps of European indices as opposed to the US, which remained in holiday mode. Last week was quiet on the index level, causing many pundits to say the November rally is running out of puff. Still, we are comfortable giving equities the benefit of the doubt due to the US holiday period.

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20/11/2023 09:01

Equity Indices

The ASX200 is set to open firmly this morning, with the Financials and Energy Sectors likely to be most supportive if we take our lead from overseas bourses. At MM, we remain believers in a Santa Rally this year if for no other reason than we’ve seen it so often in the past, with November already up ~4%, it's hard to recommend chasing strength, but we do see further upside over the coming weeks.

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06/11/2023 08:58

Equity Indices

The ASX200 is set to test 7000 this morning, although a slight ~10c dip by BHP Group (BHP) in the US will likely slow the index around the psychological level, especially after the index has already surged ~3.4% from last week's low. We remain optimistic towards the local index into Christmas, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see another test of the 7500-7600 resistance level by the time we welcome 2024.

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01/11/2023 09:00

Global Markets

US indices rallied overnight, reducing losses for October but still registering its first 3-month losing streak since 2020, the S&P500 closed up over 0.6% near the session’s high – bond yields surging to levels not witnessed for 16-years have weighed on stocks through September/October. Real estate and financials outperformed on the sector level while it was a mixed bag under the hood of the influential tech sector, with NVIDIA (NVDA US) and Meta Platforms (META US) closing lower.

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23/10/2023 08:44

Equity Indices

The ASX200 is set to dip back towards 6850 this morning, posting a fresh 4-month low in the process. We still expect a strong recovery through November/December, but as we’ve said previously, from where has become the “million dollar question”. Taking into account the Middle East tensions and hawkish central banks, we now have to allocate a 25% possibility that the local index will test its 2-year support, back around the 6500 area, or ~5% below Friday's close.

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