RIO has outperformed BHP slightly in 2025, having slipped just -1.3% year to date. The miner has a similar exposure to iron ore, with aluminium as its next most important commodity. In simple terms, we prefer Cu over Al moving forward, hence MM’s preference for BHP, but they both look well-positioned if iron ore remains firm. We like the risk/reward towards RIO over the coming months, with its price action into the EOFY set to tell us how committed the market is to a better story around China – one small bonus of RIO over BHP is its higher yield, in excess of 5% in the next 12 months.
- We can see RIO testing $130, or 10% higher, through 2025.
MM is bullish on RIO into Christmas
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