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The ASX200 dropped another 0.7% on Wednesday with the banks accounting for 85% of the decline. The market has dropped over 200 points/2.6% since MM adopted a neutral stance last week, but we’re in no hurry to “buy the dip” just yet.
A second day of strength for the ASX, breaking out to new highs as ‘risk on’ flows across the market. Futures were well supported overnight, even as the US market pulled back, implying a degree of overseas buying is hitting our bourse led by a reemergence of interest in the resources and energy sectors.
The ASX200 surged towards new highs on Tuesday, ending the session up +1.2%, only 6 points below its all-time high. Gains were broad-based, with over 90% of the main board advancing, led by the rate-sensitive consumer discretionary, real estate and financial stocks.
181 stocks in the ASX 200 made gains today, all sectors were higher, intra-day dips were bought, and the market made a new all-time closing high up tripped digits – a bullish day all around as we move into local reporting season. US earnings have strong; we made the point this morning that S&P 500 companies are on track to post a +9.1% lift in profits, far above analysts’ projection of 2.8% before results began, with earnings, and importantly, positive earnings revisions ultimately driving stock prices. Now it’s our turn!
The ASX200 recovered from early losses on Monday to end the session in positive territory, an impressive performance considering the Dow's more than 500-point drop on Friday night.
The ASX opened on the backfoot this morning, however that was the worst of it, with strength amongst the miners and supermarkets offsetting weakness elsewhere. US Futures edged higher, and Asia was also well supported during our time zone, moving past the weakness we saw in US economic data on Friday.
Since Trump unleashed chaos on global equities in April with his tariff bombshell, their recovery has been nothing short of remarkable. In just three months, the ASX200 and US S&P 500 have surged by +22% and +33% respectively. At MM, we’ve held a bullish stance through the recovery, but our confidence is now waning. The cornerstone of the stunning recovery has often been referred to as the “Goldilocks Scenario”.
The ASX200 slipped 0.1% last week after a tough Friday session, but it still ended up 2.3% for July. Earnings season is upon us, and it's already started to exert its force on the market - It's not often you see an ASX200 stock halve in the blink of an eye! We have begun the seasonally weak August-September period for the ASX, and on cue, the index has started to feel a touch soft, although 2-days doesn't make a summer.
Tariffs were back impacting the ASX today after the Whitehouse said that it will maintain a minimum global levy of 10%, while imports from countries with a trade surplus with the US will face at least 15%.
The ASX 200 ended the Thursday session down just 0.2%, recovering ~80% of its early decline, with winners and losers evenly matched. July lived up to its seasonal reputation, closing up +2.4%. If not for a -2.6% clobbering of the influential Materials Sector yesterday, we could easily have been trading at new highs.
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