Macro Monday: As the bad news dissipates can the ASX200 match its peers?

Australian stocks are knocking on the door of our technical breakout level and as subscribers know we believe fresh highs are likely into Christmas, our best guess is around 5% higher. However subscribers also know we like to look into the future, especially in today’s rapidly evolving market – its amazing what the ASX has already delivered in 2021 e.g. BNPL stocks moved out of favour while lithium returned back to the limelight, crude oil surprised everyone on the upside but iron ore halved in a few weeks while bond yields had some of their most explosive weekly moves in history. What we feel comes next is both exciting and potentially scary for those not prepared.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 12/09/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX finishes the week strong, banks and financials rally

The ASX had a solid end to the week, with a broad-based rally following on from Wall Street’s record-setting session overnight. Expectations that the Fed will move on rate cuts as soon as next week helped fuel gains in financials and miners, while gold continued its charge toward fresh highs, offsetting weakness across the energy names.

Morning report 12/09/2025 09:38

ETF Friday: Looking at three ‘vanilla’ equity ETFs traded on the ASX

The ASX 200 retreated 0.3% on Thursday, with the losses in the banking sector catching the eye after Bendigo (BEN) became the third bank this week to announce job cuts.

Afternoon report 11/09/2025 17:03

The Match Out: September weakness continues while Gold stocks breakout again

The market gave back some ground today on weakness in banks and healthcare, despite strength across gold and stabilisation for lithium stocks that took a bath yesterday. There was also a host of defense wins across various companies, driving gains in most.

Morning report 11/09/2025 09:33

What Matters Today: Has CATL ended the Lithium recovery?

The ASX200 advanced +0.3% on Wednesday, but the performance was extremely polarised on the stock and sector levels. Less than 45% of the main board advanced, but when the “Big Four Banks” rally an average of more than +1.5%, the index will always be hard to suppress.

Afternoon report 12/09/2025 16:40

The Match Out: ASX creeps higher despite Lithium carnage

The ASX edged higher into the afternoon session, though the overall tone remained mixed as gains in the financials were offset by heavy selling across the resource complex, particularly the Lithium stocks as a Chinese mine restart is now set to happen sooner than expected.

Morning report 10/09/2025 09:25

Portfolio Positioning: September is delivering the “wobbles” right on cue

The ASX200 slipped another 0.5% on Tuesday, extending September's retreat to 1.9% as the often weak month follows the seasonality script to a tee. Banking shares led the index fall, with heavyweight CBA worst on ground, closing down 1.3%. Gold stocks continued to shine as the market goes “all in” on a Fed rate cut next week; elsewhere, other rate-sensitive names like the retailers and tech stocks continue to outperform.

Afternoon report 09/09/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX pulls back on bank weakness

Weakness in the banking sector weighed on the local market today, overriding optimism from Wall Street that the Fed is poised to cut rates next week. Gold remained hot with bullion hitting new all-time highs again overnight while there were some select pockets of strength elsewhere, largely amid tech and defensives.

Morning report 09/09/2025 11:53

What Matters Today: Will OPEC continue to weigh on the energy sector?

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise production again next month, highlighting the alliance’s determination to expand supply despite a looming surplus. Crude prices are down more than 10% this year on rising output and weaker demand from a soft Chinese economy and uncertainty courtesy of Trump’s trade war, yet resilience in the market has spurred Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep pushing barrels back online.

Afternoon report 08/09/2025 16:55

The Match Out: Stocks drift lower, market is losing steam

The ASX drifted lower on Monday despite a strong showing from technology, with ex-dividend names and weakness in banks and energy offsetting gains. There was a defensive undertone to the session – aside from strength in tech and lithium it wasn’t enough to outweigh pressure in banks and energy. Gold remains the standout macro theme into September with ETF flows at records, though local gold equities continue to lag – a trend we’ve written about in recent notes. The market more broadly continues to oscillate around the 8850 level, with breadth softening.

Morning report 08/09/2025 09:03

Macro Monday: Will the “Goldilocks Scenario” prevail for stocks?

U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month as unemployment climbed to its highest level since 2021, raising fears the labour market may be entering a deeper downturn. Hiring was once again led by health care, but outside that sector, total employment has fallen in three of the past four months.