Tuesday was another tough day at the office for Australian equities, with a +0.2% gain by the Energy Sector the only shining light as the index ended down 0.5%. It came as no surprise to MM that buyers remained on the sidelines before Wednesday night's FOMC meeting, i.e. will the Fed hike, probably not, but the bias implied through the Dot Plot is what’s likely to determine how the market moves. With the S&P500 within striking distance of its 2023 high and the US 10-year yielding 4.3%, we believe there is a diminishing amount of room for a hawkish Fed.
Both pre and post-COVID the banks and insurers have followed a relatively similar path although there was a period of major outperformance by the Banks through 2021, and early 2022. The banking index in a similar fashion to the ASX, has trod water over the last two years while the insurers have ground higher. Hence we question today whether the likes of QBE & IAG will prove a better investment into 2024 and beyond, especially with some economists concerned by the dramatically named “mortgage cliff” although it hasn’t called any major issues so far.
The ASX200 is almost flat after a fascinating first half of September, although under the hood, it’s a very different story, with the Energy Index up +3.6% while the Real Estate sector is down -3.2%. Unfortunately for the index, the heavyweight financials and materials sectors are also positive, while the other eight sectors are all negative to date for September. As we keep saying, until further notice, most of the excitement into 2024 will be on the stock and sector level.
Uranium stocks have surged higher over the last 48 hours and we believe this is a move to embrace, not fade – remember our very bullish outlook in the MM Resources into FY24 webinar. The uranium price has more than doubled over recent months, posting fresh decade highs in the process. It’s a straightforward game of supply & demand that has reached a tipping point as Utilities that have been drawing down inventory levels suddenly have to chase supply.
Not surprisingly, the correlation between the S&P500 Energy Sector and the crude oil price has been very strong since well before COVID but since Q4 of 2022 stocks have noticeably outperformed and are starting to feel stretched in comparison. Also, the Energy Sector has become a favourite of quant models/fund managers over the last few years as it grinds ever higher against a choppy and uncertain backdrop.
The ASX200 again recovered from early weakness to close up +0.2% although we still saw more stocks decline led by the Energy Sector although the market appears to have got this one wrong following crude oils pop over $US91/barrel last night. This morning may see many short-term players hang on the sidelines ahead of this month's important inflation data out of the US, the interpretation of which plus next week's FOMC meeting is likely to set the tone for bond yields over the coming weeks.
Investors focused on the future, as is usually the case, with the index closing out August down -1.4%, although it’s important to note the month was weak across global indices. The most prevalent headache for companies this profit season has been escalating costs, so far, these have largely been passed onto customers, allowing companies to defend profit margins, but the question is, can this be continued?
Over recent sessions, weakness in the ASX has also been amplified by several heavyweight stocks trading ex-dividend. Subscribers have probably gleaned from reports that September is historically the market's weakest month since 1992, declining on average over -0.9%, almost twice as bad as the infamous May! However, putting this into perspective, the ASX200 has already fallen over twice its usual decline in September.
Yesterday we saw major activity on the share register of Liontown Resources (LTR) which led us to reconsider whether other local lithium names could find themselves in the sights of overseas/local companies looking to grow through acquisition. Half of the lithium mines put on the market since 2018 have been bought by Chinese companies for an estimated $12.3bn illustrating the country's appetite for global battery metal although future moves may prove far harder with national interests likely to be put ahead of shareholders.
A 20% increase by the $US against the $A should by definition deliver a major tailwind for the ASX businesses who earn a significant portion of their revenue in $US with the healthcare and miners initially coming to mind followed by some specific industrials. Ironically the Healthcare Sector is enduring a tough year, especially by its standards, while the miners are struggling to capitalise due to uncertainties from China.
Both pre and post-COVID the banks and insurers have followed a relatively similar path although there was a period of major outperformance by the Banks through 2021, and early 2022. The banking index in a similar fashion to the ASX, has trod water over the last two years while the insurers have ground higher. Hence we question today whether the likes of QBE & IAG will prove a better investment into 2024 and beyond, especially with some economists concerned by the dramatically named “mortgage cliff” although it hasn’t called any major issues so far.
The ASX200 is almost flat after a fascinating first half of September, although under the hood, it’s a very different story, with the Energy Index up +3.6% while the Real Estate sector is down -3.2%. Unfortunately for the index, the heavyweight financials and materials sectors are also positive, while the other eight sectors are all negative to date for September. As we keep saying, until further notice, most of the excitement into 2024 will be on the stock and sector level.
Uranium stocks have surged higher over the last 48 hours and we believe this is a move to embrace, not fade – remember our very bullish outlook in the MM Resources into FY24 webinar. The uranium price has more than doubled over recent months, posting fresh decade highs in the process. It’s a straightforward game of supply & demand that has reached a tipping point as Utilities that have been drawing down inventory levels suddenly have to chase supply.
Not surprisingly, the correlation between the S&P500 Energy Sector and the crude oil price has been very strong since well before COVID but since Q4 of 2022 stocks have noticeably outperformed and are starting to feel stretched in comparison. Also, the Energy Sector has become a favourite of quant models/fund managers over the last few years as it grinds ever higher against a choppy and uncertain backdrop.
The ASX200 again recovered from early weakness to close up +0.2% although we still saw more stocks decline led by the Energy Sector although the market appears to have got this one wrong following crude oils pop over $US91/barrel last night. This morning may see many short-term players hang on the sidelines ahead of this month's important inflation data out of the US, the interpretation of which plus next week's FOMC meeting is likely to set the tone for bond yields over the coming weeks.
Investors focused on the future, as is usually the case, with the index closing out August down -1.4%, although it’s important to note the month was weak across global indices. The most prevalent headache for companies this profit season has been escalating costs, so far, these have largely been passed onto customers, allowing companies to defend profit margins, but the question is, can this be continued?
Over recent sessions, weakness in the ASX has also been amplified by several heavyweight stocks trading ex-dividend. Subscribers have probably gleaned from reports that September is historically the market's weakest month since 1992, declining on average over -0.9%, almost twice as bad as the infamous May! However, putting this into perspective, the ASX200 has already fallen over twice its usual decline in September.
Yesterday we saw major activity on the share register of Liontown Resources (LTR) which led us to reconsider whether other local lithium names could find themselves in the sights of overseas/local companies looking to grow through acquisition. Half of the lithium mines put on the market since 2018 have been bought by Chinese companies for an estimated $12.3bn illustrating the country's appetite for global battery metal although future moves may prove far harder with national interests likely to be put ahead of shareholders.
A 20% increase by the $US against the $A should by definition deliver a major tailwind for the ASX businesses who earn a significant portion of their revenue in $US with the healthcare and miners initially coming to mind followed by some specific industrials. Ironically the Healthcare Sector is enduring a tough year, especially by its standards, while the miners are struggling to capitalise due to uncertainties from China.
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