Yesterday, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) announced lenders had cut their 5-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 25 basis points to 3.95%; it was the first cut since June, reaffirming Xi Jinping's intentions to reinvigorate their economy, which the prolonged property crisis has weighed down. This was the biggest-ever cut to the key mortgage reference rate as Chinese banks cut rates to incentivise borrowing; the targeted stimulus will increase the potential pool of buyers as apartment prices continue to slip lower.
Whichever type of coal we look at, the pictures the same, one of panic buying through 2021 and 2022 followed by aggressive selling through 2023, creating huge volatility across the respective coal stocks. As with most commodities, China is by far the world's largest consumer of coal, and if/when Beijing lifts its struggling economy, the dial will likely edge higher on the demand side of the equation. Conversely, on the supply side of the ledger, new mines are becoming increasingly more challenging/ almost impossible to permit or fund on the global push towards decarbonisation.
China’s stock market went into its “Year of the Dragon” celebrations with a rare and much-needed bounce, with the index, ahead of last week’s break, up +8.3% from its 5-year low. However, it would be easy for the bears to justify the gains on simple book-squaring ahead of the long break. Still, at MM, we can see something more meaningful brewing beneath the surface, i.e. Chinese stocks are looking for a low after almost halving over the last two years. While there are no concrete fundamental or technical buy signals in place, we continue to believe a ~20% bounce, at the very least, is close at hand.
The US Real Estate Sector led equities higher overnight as pressure reduced on bond yields; the sector finished up +2.5% while the IT Sector actually closed lower. With investors struggling to justify the lofty valuations of many well-known stocks, the real estate names offer a degree of solace as they remain ~25% below their 2021 high, and interest rates looked to have peaked with the main question of when and how fast will the Fed cut as opposed to if they will cut.
The gold price is inversely correlated to both the bond yields and the $US, both of which have ticked higher so far in 2024; hence, precious metals have lost their lustre, sending gold stocks significantly lower as the sector remains largely friendless. At MM medium-term, we are looking for bond yields to turn lower, taking the $US and gold price with them, but at this stage, we are in no hurry to pre-empt the catalyst which will create such a move; hence MM reduced our Active Growth portfolio’s gold exposure in January.
Overnight US markets sold off aggressively after a hotter-than-expected CPI inflation read left the optimistic Doves near-term rate cut hopes in tatters. Bonds and stocks both slid following the release, which climbed the most in eight months just when investors were expecting confirmation that inflation is under control; the US 2s climbed back to levels not seen since the December central bank “pivot” – another example of crowded positioning coming under pressure. The release added credibility to Jerome Powell's “wait-and-see attitude”, with the futures now pricing in a Fed Funds rate of ~4.45% by Christmas, around four cuts.
Crude oil has been supported by major geo-political events since COVID, but it's not delivered an overly exciting performance from the ASX oil & gas names – uranium has been the big winner in the Energy Sector. The supply and demand fundamentals continue to concern some analysts as record U.S. production combined with a weak Chinese economy creates risks of oversupply, potentially offsetting tensions in the Middle East and the Russia/Ukraine war. Brent crude is trading around its average level of the last five years, albeit with some volatile spikes in both directions.
Lithium has been dominating the news around the demise of the ESG Sector for months, but nickel has come to the fore of late as the collapse in the commodities price has led to the closure of mines operated by IGO and Twiggy Forrest’s Wyloo. Now heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) is feeling the pinch with estimates that its Nickel West business is losing $50m a month. The government has even been involved as it aims for a carbon-zero economy by 2030, a big ask if Australian businesses are losing millions in the pursuit of their optimistic goal.
The Australian Healthcare Sector has surged ~30% since late October, and although we are bullish over the coming years, a period of consolidation is overdue, and an 8-10% pullback wouldn’t surprise - at current levels, we aren’t looking to increase our exposure to the sector, pretty much in line with our view on the market in general. The sector has shown a strong inverse correlation to bond yields over the years, falling sharply when bonds rally/yields fall and vice versa. MM’s macro outlook is yields will fall through 2024/5 but not as fast as many hope, and the futures are pricing, another reason why we can see a pullback following the recent strong advance.
Reporting season throws up increased volatility on the stock level, illustrated perfectly by the +20% surge higher by Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META US) last week. However, when the market is positioned very bearishly towards a stock, and it beats or isn’t too bad, the move can be exaggerated on the upside as shorts look to buy back stock &/or fund managers attempt to get some exposure before it gets away from them. While shorting can get a lot of headlines, it is difficult to consistently get right and big losses from shorts are common place. When short a stock and it rallies, the problem gets bigger/worse, unlike a bought stock that goes down, the problem gets less influential on returns. Buying heavily shorted stocks can at times yield strong, quick gains.
Whichever type of coal we look at, the pictures the same, one of panic buying through 2021 and 2022 followed by aggressive selling through 2023, creating huge volatility across the respective coal stocks. As with most commodities, China is by far the world's largest consumer of coal, and if/when Beijing lifts its struggling economy, the dial will likely edge higher on the demand side of the equation. Conversely, on the supply side of the ledger, new mines are becoming increasingly more challenging/ almost impossible to permit or fund on the global push towards decarbonisation.
China’s stock market went into its “Year of the Dragon” celebrations with a rare and much-needed bounce, with the index, ahead of last week’s break, up +8.3% from its 5-year low. However, it would be easy for the bears to justify the gains on simple book-squaring ahead of the long break. Still, at MM, we can see something more meaningful brewing beneath the surface, i.e. Chinese stocks are looking for a low after almost halving over the last two years. While there are no concrete fundamental or technical buy signals in place, we continue to believe a ~20% bounce, at the very least, is close at hand.
The US Real Estate Sector led equities higher overnight as pressure reduced on bond yields; the sector finished up +2.5% while the IT Sector actually closed lower. With investors struggling to justify the lofty valuations of many well-known stocks, the real estate names offer a degree of solace as they remain ~25% below their 2021 high, and interest rates looked to have peaked with the main question of when and how fast will the Fed cut as opposed to if they will cut.
The gold price is inversely correlated to both the bond yields and the $US, both of which have ticked higher so far in 2024; hence, precious metals have lost their lustre, sending gold stocks significantly lower as the sector remains largely friendless. At MM medium-term, we are looking for bond yields to turn lower, taking the $US and gold price with them, but at this stage, we are in no hurry to pre-empt the catalyst which will create such a move; hence MM reduced our Active Growth portfolio’s gold exposure in January.
Overnight US markets sold off aggressively after a hotter-than-expected CPI inflation read left the optimistic Doves near-term rate cut hopes in tatters. Bonds and stocks both slid following the release, which climbed the most in eight months just when investors were expecting confirmation that inflation is under control; the US 2s climbed back to levels not seen since the December central bank “pivot” – another example of crowded positioning coming under pressure. The release added credibility to Jerome Powell's “wait-and-see attitude”, with the futures now pricing in a Fed Funds rate of ~4.45% by Christmas, around four cuts.
Crude oil has been supported by major geo-political events since COVID, but it's not delivered an overly exciting performance from the ASX oil & gas names – uranium has been the big winner in the Energy Sector. The supply and demand fundamentals continue to concern some analysts as record U.S. production combined with a weak Chinese economy creates risks of oversupply, potentially offsetting tensions in the Middle East and the Russia/Ukraine war. Brent crude is trading around its average level of the last five years, albeit with some volatile spikes in both directions.
Lithium has been dominating the news around the demise of the ESG Sector for months, but nickel has come to the fore of late as the collapse in the commodities price has led to the closure of mines operated by IGO and Twiggy Forrest’s Wyloo. Now heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) is feeling the pinch with estimates that its Nickel West business is losing $50m a month. The government has even been involved as it aims for a carbon-zero economy by 2030, a big ask if Australian businesses are losing millions in the pursuit of their optimistic goal.
The Australian Healthcare Sector has surged ~30% since late October, and although we are bullish over the coming years, a period of consolidation is overdue, and an 8-10% pullback wouldn’t surprise - at current levels, we aren’t looking to increase our exposure to the sector, pretty much in line with our view on the market in general. The sector has shown a strong inverse correlation to bond yields over the years, falling sharply when bonds rally/yields fall and vice versa. MM’s macro outlook is yields will fall through 2024/5 but not as fast as many hope, and the futures are pricing, another reason why we can see a pullback following the recent strong advance.
Reporting season throws up increased volatility on the stock level, illustrated perfectly by the +20% surge higher by Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META US) last week. However, when the market is positioned very bearishly towards a stock, and it beats or isn’t too bad, the move can be exaggerated on the upside as shorts look to buy back stock &/or fund managers attempt to get some exposure before it gets away from them. While shorting can get a lot of headlines, it is difficult to consistently get right and big losses from shorts are common place. When short a stock and it rallies, the problem gets bigger/worse, unlike a bought stock that goes down, the problem gets less influential on returns. Buying heavily shorted stocks can at times yield strong, quick gains.
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